PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2899, 11 October 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

On available evidence Germany has not yet mado much headway in her effort to savo the situation in the Balkans, or to postpone defeat Jn that quarter, by heavily attacking Rumania in the Transylvanian theatre. It is very necessary, of course, to avoid forming any hasty conclusions about a campaign of this kind. The success or failure of the enemy venture will appear ultimately not in its local and immediate effects, but in the progress of events in the Balkans. If Germany and her ally, without actually invading Eumania, could press so hard upon her armies in Transylvania as to prevent her taking _an effective part against Bulgaria, they would no doubt be well satisfied, and with some reason. It may be some little time before the rather complex issues at stake are determined, but meantime the enterprise against Eumania in which Germany is taking a leading part is at a very early stage, and its prospects do not seem good. Reports now in hand are of a nature to modify the uneasiness awakened by the news that the Rumanians had been compelled to retreat on some sections of the Transylvanian front, and notably to abandon the railway town of Brasso. It is now stated that the Rumanian retreat in Southern Transylvania was carried out in good order. German attacks were the immediate cause of the retreat, but it would probably not have been necessary had not a number of Rumanian divisions been previously transferred from Transylvania to the Dobruja—in which region no doubt the Russo-Rumanian strength will only be fully exerted when General _ Sarrail's campaign in Macedonia has developed materially Beyond its present stage. All that is established meantime is. that the demands of the Dobruja campaign have made it necessary for Rumania to contract her operations in Transylvania, and until the Germans or Austro-Germans win somo pronounced success in the latter region, or compel the recall of the Rumanian divisions sent to the Dobruja, it cannot be held that they have altered the general situation to their advantage.

The importance of Brasso has been touched upon in recent notes, but the essential point at tne moment is that even with Brasso recovered by the enemy the Rumanians are still extremely well placed to resist attack, which presumably is all they have in mind for the time being. In Northern Transylvania they are for a considerable distance thirty or forty miles beyond their own frontier, and in effective touch with the .Russians on a line extending through the Carpathians from Southern Bukowina. In the south they are at most points thrown closely back upon the" frontier mountains. but they hold the passes and the dominating _ heights. There is no report at time of writing of any attack by the enemy on the frontier defences, though the Germans state that they have captured Toerzburg, which stands on the Hungarian side of the mountains, opposite the pass of the same li&me, and south-west of Brasso. Particularly in Southern Transylvania the enemy has good railway communications, but the Rumanians are not badly off in this respect. It is noteworthy that the frontier mountains present on the Rumanian side moderate slopes, abounding in fairly easy roads and paths, whereas on the Hungarian side the ruling features are abrupt cliffs, intersected by numerous crevices.

Apart from these conditions, the enemy is bound to bo seriously handicapped by the fact that 'he no longer possesses a strategic reserve. This fact has been publicly remarked both by the Russian Chief of Staff (General Alexeieff) and General J offre, and it is now amply attested in the events of the war. It.has been most recently exampled in the waning power and effect of the German counter-attacks

in the Sommo tegion in defence of a vital Section of front, which is threatened "with disastrous collapse. Tho Central Powers ;U'e in tho position that they can strengthen one front only by robbing another of troops and artillery, which it can ill spare. Wn do not know the strength" of the fo rco cntrusted to von Faleenhayn Tor the attack upon Rumania, but we may pe quite sure that ample scope for its employment exists both on the Somiijo front and in the main Eastern theatre. The answer of the Allies to the attempt upon Rumania will be made not locally but in all theatres. _ The continued vigour of tho Russian southern offensive and the development of tho Allied offensive in_ Macedonia have, of course, a particularly close bearing upon ©vents in Transylvania. That the Rumanians have retired their lino in Southern Transylvania, and Sre for the time being at a standstill, or nearly so, in the Dobruja, certainly cannot be taken to mean that von Falkenhayn's enterprise has succeeded, or even that it is -faring well. The German communique which reports the capture of 'ioerzburg claims also that Austro-Ger-manland and naval forces hold and dominate positions on islands of the Danube north-west of Svistov, a mid-way point on the northern Bulgarian frontier. This means, if true, that a, gateway into Rumania from the south has been partly opened, but here, as elsewhere, the determining factor -will be available strength, and we are justified -n believing that the enemy is not in a oondition to profitably extend and spread his activities.

Though there is no word at time of writing of any exceptional activity on the central section of the Macedonian front, in the region of the Vardar valley, the Allied attacks on both wings—towards Minastir on the west and beyond thhe Struma on the developing prosperously, and in a fashion which points' to the likelihood of' still more important events in tho near future. On the approach to Monastir tho Allies have forced the River Ccrna, which tho Bulgars stubbornly defended, and captured a numbev of strong positions. In the Struma' region also the enemy is faring badly, and is being steadily pushed back. There can be no doubt that the long-continued battles on the wings of his southern front havo very seriously cut down his effective strength.

_ Some further progress by the Allies is reported in the Somme region, where the enterprise of penetrating the German front has now been carried to such an advanced stage that major developments aro obviously possible at no very distant date. The British movement against Bapaume has of late almost monopolised attention, but one message to-day emphasises the important of Peronne and the extent to which it is now imperilled. The French have found the local defences of Peronne, with which they are in immediate touch, exceedingly but they aro now developing a turning movement beyoricT Bouchavesnes, three miles north of Peronne. It is in the Bouchavesnes area that the French have "broken completely through the , strongest German positions, and are now confronted by defences of more recent In considering the prospects raised account must, of course, _ be taken of the palpable weakening, in the, enemy's resistance and* more particularly in his coun-ter-attacks. As the struggle develops the clement of give and take which marked its earlier passages is tending to disappear, and though his counter-attacks have cost the eneapy dear the falling-off now in evidence is an unmistakable confession of defeat/

Rumour of a frothy description has very largely displaced real news in messages dealing with the activities of the German submarine or submarines operating off the coast of America. As illustrating the play of American temperament and inventive faculty, some of the stories submitted are not without merit. As an example, we may take the statement that in one instance American torpedoers were so thick upon the scene that the commander of the submarine asked two of them to make way in order that he might blow up his prey. This is not unworthy of the nation which produced the story about the boat so light in draught that it could float on a heavy dew, and the tree so tall that it took two men and a boy to see to its top. But the story about the clustering torpedoers and much else in the current reports that is obviously imaginative throws no light at all upon the latest development in the German submarine campaign. Taking account only of what has somo claim to serious attention in the news, it seems quite possible that more than one submarine is operating on the Atlantic seaboard. At time of writing' six steamers have been named as being attacked and sunk, and though one submarine might have accounted for as many ships over a period of some days it is perhaps more likely that two or more were operating. Somo mention has been made of a hypothetical North Atlantic base, but there is no real reason to doubt that whatever submarines Germany has in the Western Atlantic crossed the ocean from a German base, and it is presumably from the standpoint of the limitations thus imposed, in regard to docking, repairs, and other matters, that the_ probable range and scopo of their activities must be estimated. As to the question of fuel, it is highly probable that U53, and whatever consorts she may have, obtained supplies at sea or from the American coast, but the American <3overnment will presumably make every effort to close the latter source of supply. It is bound, under the Hague Convention, to prevent its territory being used as a baso of naval operations, and default in this matter would raise a likelihood of very serious complications.

Whilu unofficial opinion in America, is running to various extremes in regard to the action of the German raiders, the State Department is adhering steadfastly tt» its fixed policy of avoiding trouble. If a Washington report on the subject is reliable, Mb. Lansing, on behalf of the Government, takes the view that the torpedoing of ships, so long as their crews and passengers are given time to take to the boats, involves 110 breach of international law. This is an ignominious retreat from the position taken up in somo of the earlier American Notes to Germany, that a submarine a.cting on these lines falls distinctly short of complying, with international law. Ono possibility, of which the Germans have perhaps not taken sufficient account, is that the

submarine operations off their coast may awaken such resentment in the American public as would stampede the Government into action. A singlo mistake by a submarino commander might bring the matter to a. head. War between America and Gei'many is not necessarily in question. It has to be remembered that many of Germany's finest ships are lying in American ports, and no doubt Germany hopes to enlist America's good offices, sooner or later, in negotiating for peace. There is_ on these grounds at least a possibility that tho extension of the submarine campaign to the Atlantic seaboard may prove to bo a very serious tactical blunder.