PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 2896, 7 October 1916, Page 8

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Visible events in Macedonia- are still confined to two widely-separ-ated sections of the. long front on which the Allies are in touch with the Bulga-rs, Tint these events are of a character to suggest that General Sarrail' will soon -launch his offensive in' .full' power. As a result of successf'il attacks in which, the Serbians have taken the principal .part there is already a'sweeping deparfrom the almost ..stationary, 1 -fighting-on the northern confines,-of Greece, which ruled for-many weeks,and the: British operations east-, of the Struma seem also: to be steadily growing in importance'. ' The essen-'. tial Bulgarian communications intho region of the'"British-attack are tli© maifi road' which- runs down' the Struma valley,-and the railwav running through.'.' .'GVeek ' : Macedonia;.'' Road and railway.are in. touch;andthey. serve' an, important purpose--in linking, up the Bulgarian'.forces in the vicinity;- of . 'their own frontier and along .the Struma line'arid those which occupy tjie eastern part of Greek- Macedonia. At Yenikeui the British, are only a mile, or two

distant from the railway,- ori*wHick the Bulg'irs depend, and though the cutting of this railway would not deprive either section ot the Bulgarian forco of a line of retreat, it would very, possibly lead, -to the" Bulgars' speedily evacuating -Greek, Macedonia east of the .Struma. They would have little temptation to maintain, or attempt to maintain, the invasion ot thie territory, with powerful attacks developing against their vital -frontier defences. ■ Speedy dcvelopments.-.are possible in the region of the Struma;, but for tho time- the Serbian .advance - on Monastir occupies- tho rentre of thestage.' With some assistance fromFrench and Russian' troops, tfcie'■ Serbs have completely broken the Bulgarian resistance in the - mountains of the Serbo-Greek frontier, south ,a,nd-..south-east of Monastir, and are now moving rapidly forward. It seems" not unlikely' that tho Birlgar retreat may extend beyond Monastir. Kenali, one of the principal villages, which-the-.Serbs have occupied,,stands a mile or two ■north of the frontier,, and ten miles from Monastir, on tho railway, of which that town is the terminus. Allied advmced troops have begun to cross the River. G'erna, which runs, at right, angles .with, the, Sfonas.tir railway,' several' miles -. beyond Kenali, and if the Bulgars are not' making a stand on the Cerna line, it is improbable that they will attempt to defend Monastir. So far the operations both in the direction of Monastir and east of the Struma promise well, and thoy are certanly important enough to warrant the belief that a further development of the offensive is in early pros : pect, but it would be a mistake to assume th.i,; the success thus far won by -the Allies means that the Bulgarian southern line as a whole,is in a stato of collapse.

It may not bo 'long before that result is achieved, but'though the enemy has been heavily defeated towards the flanks of his line, limits' are set_ meantime to the effect of, the Allied blows by the nature of the country in which the campaign is being conducted. At time of writing there is no -word of- any fighting in the near neighbourhood of the Vardar valley, wliich is one of the chief avenues" the Allies must master and use in their main advance, and even if the fall of Monas-" tir is announced to-morrow it will not • follow ..thattho>. Bulgarian:: line as a whole, including the " frontier defences of the Vardar valley, has been' turned, and made untenable. It is Lecauso they are undoubtedly details in a larger plan, and arc to be understood in no other light, that the attacks thus far driven home are important and significant. In Monastir, when they get it, theAllies will have a base for a movement north-east against the Vardar line, but the route ahead lies through difficult mountain country. Practically everywhere the Bulgars still have strong mountain lines to defend'or'fall back ■ upqn. In estimating possibilities, however, it would probably be a very great mis-' take to assume that' the Bulgars arc likely to make the most of the defensive possibilities of the tract of country which'it is the immediate task of the Allies to master. To do this the enemy would need a very much greater force than he is known to have at command, and the superior strength of the Allies may be expected to tell in spite of the fact that their line of. a-dvancc lies' .'-through lending itself in an unusual degree to a defensive campaign.

J On what is known and can reasonably lie inferred concorning it the position o"f Bulgaria'seems to be absolutely hopeless, and she is certainly, much nearer,.to. overwhelm-, ing .defeat-.than- the prospective- loss' of Monastir or the; collapsing defence of her communications in Eastern Macedonia- would imply. The amount-of aid she'is'likely to receive from Germany may be judged from the present'state of the campaign on her northern frontier.'

Disaster is in' near prospect 1 in that quarter, and yet in the south • the Bulgars- remain extended 011 the long front which the}' took up -when they invaded Greece in the hope, no.t only of upsetting the Allied plans in that region, but of bluffing Rumania-into-remaining neutral. Bulgaria has gained 110 perceptible military advantage by. her invasion of Greece, liuE in the ■long, series of battles, fpugfj' on the Greek frontier, ' and alotig '-'the . Struma, - sho has .sacrificed a,, body of strength which she ...would -have, been wiser to reserve for a,-, defensive- campaign.-, . And . to-day hersouthern forces ar.e extended and-dis-. persed rn a degree which must needs weaken - -their - • -resistance 'at - - thepoints which form Uie main objectives' of the Allies.' It-is so' truethat the Bulgars' have played into the hands of the Allies by their bootless invasion'- o,f; Greece' that' the. latter might very, well have prolonged the campaign for some, time .to. come on. its present lines, but'for the- : fact that the conquest of the ]3>al r . kans is a preliminary step to much greater tilings. One factor, amongst others, of which'account must Be taken, is the effect that will be produced by current events upon the spirit of th'.'. Bulgarian troops. It is stated on' apparently good authority that those employed in the i'nva- <

sion of Greece were deceived into believing that the speedy capture of Salonika was assured. A' terrible reaction must be expected now that the Bulgars are reeling under the blows of the Russo-Eumanians on the north, and aro faced by the imminent prospect of a full development of the. Allied, .so.utbern offen-

.Reports dealing with t-he.'.Russo. Rumanian offensive against Bui-

go,via/ on £ne north are generally favourable, but the immediate posits mac^e a ' little uncertain by a Bucharest comnwn-ique just received, which states that, the cross-, ing of the Danube cast of Rustchuk having served its purpose, the troops engaged have been withdrawn to the Rumanian bank of the river. This, to say the_ least, is a somewhat sudu'u^{!l'rran of '-'an" enterprise fl.hich was universally hailed as an.' effective stroke seriously jeopardising. the security of the BuTga.rrGe.rman forces in the Dobruja. -With no'further explanation than is at present vouchsafed, the news of the Rumanian withdrawal can scarcely ■oo called good. At best it tends to •rested the conditions, which existed in the,Dobruja-before the'.enemy was' sud.dfcftly threatened in - rear. -■ ■ The battle .in tho Dobruja, continues in .tull vigour, but no details of its progress are available at time of writing.

• .•It will be noticed that Hil-a-i-re Belloc, iu an article, reviewing the ..current features of the Balkan campaign, states that the Rumanians have gained a bridgeheacl on the IJanube at Rahova, a Bulgarian T>°i Wn i 240. miles ,w,est of. the Black feea coast. .Of this »the commmugue quoted .makes. no."mention, ill rJ are across the Danube at Rahova, the achieve-ment-is more important than the crossing east of Rustchuk, which was either in the nature of a feint or has endecl in failure. The latter crossing was important as immediately threatening the retreat of the jiulgar-Gerraans in ■ tho-, Dobruja.-, uut a crossing at Rahova'would op'en larger prospects. This place is in Western Bulgaria,, distant rather less- than 120 miles in a direct line from-'the main railway through tho tfalkans by way of Belgrade and bofaa: Rahova might;'-" tneref<sre, very well be the-starting point of-a Russo-Rumanian offensive coinciding with the Allied offensive from-Greece. Prospects in both movements'would 9f course, be all the : better fdr-'amater-lal. proportion-of the enemy V:fbi-ces : being heavily engaged-an ruja, nearly tyy.o .. hunted, ~;|{les Rahova. "As yet,' However, official evidence' that a 'crossing lias been effected at-Rahova is • still lacking.

What news there is from tKcmain threatres is good; .A- comparative lull, still obtains, on the Somme • In the Eastern theatre a full' tide of battle continues on the southern front, but though it is indicated that tho Russians are. making headway against the utmost efforts of the enemy to bring them to a halt, details, at' time of writing, are lacking. .