PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2873, 11 September 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

According to Athens reports tho Russians have made their expected move in the Balkans by forcing tho Danube and gaining a foothold in north-western • Bulgaria, and in that part of Serbia which adjoins Rumania. If tho news is accurate an immediate .threat is offered to the main railway which runs from Germany, through Austria and the Balkans, to Constantinople. _ Entering Serbia, at Belgrade, this railway runs south-east i through Serbia and Bulgaria to Sofia, and, as is elated in the news, it is only sixty miles distant, in a direct line, from tho towns the Russians aro said to have occupied, Vidin and Negotin. Vidin is on the west bank of the Danube, in north-western Bulgaria. Negotiri, 24 miles further north-west, is 'a Serbian town half a dozen miles west of the Danube where it runs between Rumania and Serbia. At time of writing the reports dealing with this development are unconfirmed, and possibly thoy are no> thing more than an attempt to anticipate events. It may be said, however, that'action by the Russians on the lines indicated would' give less occasion for surprise than the cablegram suggests. • The whole tendency of recent reports has been to show that the Russo-Rumanian forces aro fighting a holding battlo in the Dobruja, on the south-eastern confines of Rumania, and this raises an immediate probability that th»> Russians may open their offensive in the Balkans by forcing tho passage of the Danube, further west. There would be no particular reason for surprise if they did so in tho region mentioned in tho Athens reports.

One reason for expecting the Russian offensive to take shape in this quarter is that the forces engaged would bo in direct touch with the Rumanians in Southern Transylvania. Orsova, which tho Rumanians have now captured, is a town commanding the Danube a few miles west of the point at which it turns south-east between the Serbian and Rumanian frontiers. Negotin and Orsova arc only a little over thirty miles apart, as the crow flies, and in any forward movement control would, of course, have to be secured of the stretch of the Danube between thorn.

Up to tho present tho initiative in tho Balkan campaign has been left to tho enemy, but nothing has happened which is calculated to shako the belief that he is in a decided inferiority of strength. Tho Bulgarians wore, apparently not assisted by their allies in tho invasion of Greek Macedonia or in tho unsuc-

cessful attacks they made simultaneously on the Allied lines in Northern Greece, and they seem to ba playing at anyratc tho chief part in the present offensivo in tho Dobtuja. It is tolerably certain that unless the Bulgars aro granted very heavy reinforcements tbey_ will soon be attacked in overwhelming force. Whether tho reinforcements they require arc available is not, of course, positively known, but the'weight of evidence is to the contrary. It ccems evident that the enemy cannot detail any considerable body of troops to assist Bulgaria without further and gravely endangering bis already shaken and menaced .lines in the main theatres, where be has even more vital interests at stake than in the Balkans. The fact that use is being made of Turkish troops in Galicia distinctly supports this conclusion. If tbe Central Powers had been able to strengthen their forces in the Balfcaas they would no doubt haw found employment nearer home for the Turkish troops operatingin the Russian theatre.. Until_ definite' evidence to the contrary is produced, It will bo reasonable to believe that Bulgaria is fighting without hopo of effectual aid, and is extremely vulnerable to such an offensive' as tho Russians are said to have opencd, whether or not it has already taken shape.

The factor of relative strength is of decisive importance in tho Balkans as it is in every theatre of war, and unless the Bulgars are assured, of powerful support ' from their allies—it seems most improbable that Buch support will be af> forded—their speedy defeat is assured. News from Greece, though in some respects indefinite and lacking official confirmation, bears definite witness to the failure of .their offensive in that quarter and no doubt tho Allies aro prepared to take the offensive in concert with a Russian attack on the north. One states, that they are rein. forcing the northern front and offi* cial reports tell of successful patrol fighting against tho Bulgars. The dominant suggestion in the news 'from Greece is that the Allies arg merely awaiting their appointed hour.

' Though tho Bulgarians have been issuing inflated and untruthful reports concerning their successes in the Dobruja, there is no doubt that fchoy arc pressing the offensive in that territory with considerablo vigour. Presumably tho offensive represents % an attempt hot only to forestall and dislocate a RussoRumanian attack, but to confine the campaign to an area as distant as, possible from that in which the Bui' gars are- themselves most dangerously exposed to attack. In this matter the interests of tho Central Powers and the interests of Bulgaria, uo long as she remains in the field against the Allies, aro identified. A Russian drive acrosß the main rail* way through the Balkans, apart from its larger results, would immediately seal the fate of Bulgaria. If they could confine Rubso-Ru-manian activities to the Dobruja, the Bulgars would at least be postponing tho day of defeat, but the fact that they have made some headway in their offensive in no way warrants an opinion that it is serv> ing its intended purpose. It is now established- that Bulgarian reports regarding tho capture of Turtukai, where they,, claim to have taken twenty thousand Rumanian prisoners, aro exaggerated, but it' is not disputed that they have made some headway into Rumanian territory, and there is no indication as yet of a local counter-stroke by tho RussoRumanians. The Bulgarians now claim that they have captured tho Silistria bridgehead, 30 miles east of Turtukai, and several places on tho Black Sea coast. These claims are neither confirmed nor denied, at time of writing, by Allied_ reports. It seems somewhat unlikely, that tho Bulgars have advanced as far east as Silistria, but it is not impossible that the Allies are prepared to evacuate a considerable part of the Dobruja in furtherance of their general plan. If the Russians have crossed the Danube and entered the western confines of Bulgaria, the failure of tho Dobruja offensive is already manifest. ' If tho Russians have yet to make their v move it will remain true that tho success or failure of tho Dobruja offensive is not to be measured by such inconclusive results, as it has yet attained. It'will succeed only if it has tho -effect of paralysing offensive action by the Allies, and this it does not seem at all likely to do.

No big event is reported on the Sonime at time of writing, but ,_tho Germans are stated to be massing heavily in defence of Combles and other vital positions now very closely threatened, and another forward move in the Allied offensive is probably imminent. Both French 'and British report local'gains of ground. An account given by one correspondent of the tremendous night and day bombardment of the German lines assists a realisation of what his loss of predominance in artillery means to the enemy.

A German military writer, Major "Moraht, is credited with some observations upon, the_ Somme offensive which are interesting chiefly for the reason that they ein"body assumptions obviously at variance with the facts. The Somme battles, Major Moraht is quoted as saying, are decisive, and will show 'the Allies the impossibility of breaking through or breaking-down the. "cleverly-placed elastic retreating movement upon which the Germans rely. No fact is better at'tcste'cl than that the Germans, in resisting the Allied offensive on the Somme, have failed hopelessly to organise any such elastic and economical defence as the French practised successfully at Verdun._ From the beginning they havo striven at all costs to hold the positions from which they have been successively "dislodged by overwhelming Allied attacks, and the absence of any element of elasticity in their defence is amply demonstrated, in the "desperate and, as a rule, unavailing counter-attacks in which they have squandered so many thousands of lives. It is not without _ its significance that a German writer of acknowledged standing is reduced to comforting his countrymen with statements which depart so widely from tho facts of the case'.