PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2867, 4 September 1916, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

There docs not seem to be any doubt that a just view of the Balkan situation is taken by the French newspapers which are urging united actibn by_ the Allies against Sofia. The elimination of Bulgaria would so obviously improve the general outlook and clear the way for more important enterprises that it may seem a. little, strange that the Allies have not already taken more decided action against her. It is now just a week since the Rumanians opened'the campaign, in which they have made good headway into Transylvania and linked up with tho,Russians .on. a line extending through tho Carpathians, and this good progress is in somewhat marked- contrast to tho continued inaction of the Allies in the Southern ['Balkans: -The -south-eastern cam-

paign will only assume its full scope and importance when the Allies have either completely mastered the territories south of the Danube or at all events have definitely opened an offensive campaign from their present lines in Greece. Probably it- is the key of the. existing situatiou,_ and particularly to the comparative inaction of the Allies in Greece, that the Russians need a little time in which to round off their preparations for an invasion of Bulgaria from the north. It is now fully, evident that the Russians have been allotted an important part in the task of bringing Bulgaria to submission. They are massing strong forces in Rumania under General Dimitrieff— a Bulgarian who earned fame in the Ealkan war, and has greatly added to his reputation in the service of Russia in this war—and at any time the news' may come that the invasion o£ Bulgaria is' an accomplished fact.

It is all the more likely that anticipated action by the Russians explains the waiting policy of the Allies in Greece, since the Russian invasion will have a political as well as a military significance. Even if Bulgaria were oxpected to resist to the last, General Sarrail would'be quite justified in postponing his offensive in order to make it coincide with an invasion of Bulgaria from- the north. As reports go» he is in ample force to deal with the Bulgarians, and there is no reason to suppose that he is paralysed by the distracted state of . Greece. But even assuming that the' Allied commander has a decisive numerical superiority, .and is quite £iee to act, his task would be greatly lightened by a simultaneous Russian offensive which would necessarily divide the Bulgarian forces, and he would, of course, avail himself of this aid and co-operation to the full. These considerations, in any case, cover only. a part of the grojind, and. possibly. not -the most, important part; ' '

All things considered, it seems as little likely as ever that Bulgaria will resist to. the last and make a lighting finish'to'her stormy adventures; -Very much the biggest fact in sight is that she is confronted by overwhelming force which assures her ultimate defeat whatever course she may take, and it is only reasonable to suppose that this will be the determining factor. It is true that the day's news includes the' statement, transmitted from various quarters, that Bulgaria has declared war on Rumania. At time of writing the statement lacks official authority,- but even if its truth were' fully established it would be fairly safe to regard it as an expiring/effort by the German faction- which still nominally' dominates Bulgaria. In the natural course of events thd people of Bulgaria and the Bulgarian army will refuse to continue a hopeless struggle.

A declaration of war on Rumania would obviously mean . that 'Command of the situation has not yet been gained by the Russophiles in Bulgaria, and by the probably still' more'mttoefous section of the population which is unwilling to have its country devastated for the sake of • affording momentary assistance to the Central Empires: But here igain the Russian advance through Rumania seems to supply the needed explanation. A Russophile revolution in Bulgaria might still involve considerable peril to its promoters. It will be a much less dangerous enterprise when General Dimtrieff has crossed the Bulgarian frontier, as he may be expected to do at any time. Indications are indeed not wholly lacking that the "leaven of Russian' influence is already working. It is reported, for instance, that the Bulgarian heirapparent, Prince Boris, is hidingfrom his father. .Boris is reputed to entertain Russophile sympathies, and the suggestion is that •he is holding himself in readiness, to don the crown his father has forfeited. Another indication of troubled internal conditions in Bulgaria is the death of General Jostoff', who was promoted not long ago from a divisional command to be Chief of the 'General Staff. According to an Athens message, he committed suipide, not wishing to lead the army t;j certain defeat. This may be only a guess, but it seems to. be taken for granted that General Jostoff came to a violent end, and the event is suggestive. In any case tiie Russian move through Rumania is a definite factor which seems likely to be decisive where Bulgaria is concerned. " General Dimitrieff will make his entry backed not only by an army, but by the influence he wields over his countrymen in the character of a military hero, and h will not be surprising if his entry is followed by the speedy submission of Bulgaria to the Entente.

An official message from Petrograd mentions that Serbian troops are co-operating with the Russians iu Rumania. This, of purse, relates to Serbians who retreated into Rumania during last year's campaign and were there interned. Their total number is probably not great, but the prominence given to their participation is important and significant. It implies that the Russians, though they may hope to induce Bulgaria to submit to the inevitable, are in no way minded to subordinate Serbia's claim to the 'fullest possible redress for the terrible wrongs she has suffered, very largely as a result of Bulgarian treachery.

The Daily Chronicle's correspondent at Athens repeats the story that the Bulgarians arc retreating hom Western Greece towards iVLonastir, in Serbia, but it still lacks official confirmation. The latest cc.mmuniqtie shows a position generally unchanged. The Allies have successfully bombarded a railway station some miles up the Vardar valley from the Greek frontier, but the communique makes no mention of a Bulgarian retreat- further west. It speaks instead of the Serbians easily repulsing a Bulgarian night attack. Correspondents who I have reported a Bulgarian retreat | and a Serbian pursuit are either getting their news through much ahead of the official reports, or have been misled. Though a German retreat in tho Western theatre ,is now a clear possibility, or perhaps for that'reason, {such actions as arc reported to-day rui the Western theatre have arisen chiefly at the initiative of the Germans. On Thursday the enemy in'ade heavy and repeated attacks on the British front opposite Ginchy and further north, and slightly penetrated the positions lately, won ny the British troops in that area. | Portion of- the small extent of I ground lost has since been recoveri ed, but it is of more importance that the losses of the Germans in

these attacks appear to have been particularly severe, even by the standards of a battle in which they have squandered lives very freely in attempting to hold their positions or regain them when lost. The enemy had a similar experience in attacks ou portion of the French line south of the Sommc. He gained a little ground and suffered losses which are made the subject of particular remark in the official messages. German attacks at Fleury, on the Vordun front, and at Ponfc-a-Moußson, on the Lorraine border, were beaten off. It is now 'some time since the Allies' made any pronounced effort to extend their inroads into tne enemy positions on the iSommc front, and since they are undoubtedly advaptagcously posted to continue the offensive, the visible circumstances lend some colour to the idea which is being increasingly canvassed that the Germans may bo on the eve of a retreat. ...

This, of coursc, is not a matter in regard to which anything can bo taken for granted. The .Russian War Minister. is quoted to-day as saying that another winter campaign is inevitable—no doubt a reasonable estimate of the situation— and it may be assumed that the Germans will endeavour to enter- the winter campaign with as little loss of territory as their circumsfcanccs v/ill'perrait. It.certainly seems unlikely, however, that they will be able much longer to maintain . their present Western line, more especially if they contemplate an offensive effort on the other side of Europe. This is a point upon which reports at present are somewhat hazy.. At the end of .last week the theory in favour, was that Von Hindekburg would probably attempt an offensive in the ftussian main theatre, but he is, now said to be making ready for an attack upon .Rumania in the •region of the Danube. The report i't not very convincing, for an enterprise. of any magnitude, on these lines would leave the Allied, armies in the main theatres- and,-in -Italy tree to act vigorously' against • a weakened enemy. For. the time being, in any case, the Rumanians have the upper hand in the region of the Danube'as. well 1 as.'-'further east and north, it will, be noticed that the Aiistrians admit a retirement, on the front immediately north-from-'the Danube, 1 after five days of battle.

Reports from the Eastern theatre tell of a great outburst of fighting I'pn several sectiras. of the.' southern front,' but not as yet with any very definite result. In Southern Russian, the opposing armies are heavily engaged north-east'of Kovel and about 30 miles south of that place, on the approaches to Vladimir Volinski. In these areas the enemy has been freely, attacking,, but in Galicia the ''Russians ~are forcing their way along the-Dnies-ter'towards the important railway centre of Halicz, : from which they seem now to be only about ten miles distant, or less, and they have made headway , also, in the Carpathians, j>oth on the Galician frontier and in- Southern Bukowina, where they .have joined hands with the Rumanians. That matters generally are going well with them .may .he judged rrom the.fact that in battles pn.last Thursday they took over ,15,000 prisoners. ■ ••• ■