PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2865, 1 September 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Some of to-day's reports hint broadly that tho Balkan situation is about to undergo further changes, greatly to tho advnntago of the Allies. For tho moment eyes are turned on Bulgaria, and the expectation is evidently pretty general chat she will submit to the Entente in order to as' far as possible escapo the punishment she haß earn' cd. One report states that Rutnana has presented an ultimatum to Bulgaria, demanding the imme-' diate ovacuation of Serbian territory and the re-establishment of the boundaries constituted by the Treaty of Buoharest (entered into at the close of the sccon'd Balkan war). According to an accompanying message, it is anticipated that events are immediately pending which will result in an important ahango in the Balkan situation, and mark the opening of a vitally important stage of tho war. Obviously it is assumed that Bulgaria will submit to the inevitable, and indeed no other course seems to he open to her.unless she intends to invite the fate which her treachery inflicted on Serbia:

It may seem regrettable that she has any prospect of escaping tho full punishment of her crimes, but the fact is to be'eonsidered that the weeks which would bo spent in overrunning Bulgaria might be .much more profitably employed in developing an invasion of tlie Dual Monarchy, over the northern frontier of the Balkans. Tho possibility, appears also, that use may bo made of the Bulgarian army in giving tho coup-de-grace to Turkey. There has been some talk lately of Bulgarian bargaining with-tho Entente, but the possible terms of settlement are probably accurately reflected in tho reported wording of the Rumanian ultimatum. There was a time when tho Entente approved and supported Bulgaria's claim to Serbian Macedonia, but the least that can be exacted; of her now is the tion of ovcry rood of the territory she has been enabled to temporarily occupy as a result of her unnatural alliance with the Teutonic league. If she got hor just deserts she would get the treatment she proposed to mete out to Serbia. This was succinctly set forth, as recently as the eucj of June, in an article in tho Narodni Prava, tho organ of the Bulgarian Government.

Very sqoa (it said) tho Bulgarian diplomats will have to speak at tlio general peace conference. . . . Especially in regard to the future of our real enemy— Sorbia—our diplomats will have to be circumspect, and, most important of all, strictly inexorable. Oar diplomats will have to lay aside all sentiment, all human consideration, and feeling. Tho continued existence of Sorbia, no matter in what form, means the subversion of all peace in the Balkans, constant quarrels, and conflicts between Bulgaria and other, nations, and a permanent obstacle to the prosperity and peaceful develop-ment-of Europe. ... The rotations between Germany and her Western neighbours are similar to those between Bulgaria and Serbia: That is why it is the boundon duty of our diplomats to take to ließvt Bismarck's _ motto, "No generosity at tho conclusion of peace." That was Bulgaria's suggested attitude towards Serbia when victory seamed to bo going her way. Luckily for Bulgaria, tho antagonists who to-day hold ncr at their mercy are more capable of mercy than she was in tho day of her supposed triumph, but it is evident that if she is to escape disaster she must decide quickly. Tsar Ferdinand, by his judicious withdrawal to Vienna, has probably for tho time being saved his head. He has also left an open field for the revolution which would enable Bulgaria to admit, and 'as far as possible expiate, her crimes. If tho expectations at present entertained are disappointed, Bulgaria may still bo regarded as well. in hand. The Allies in Macedonia are posted to strike, and according to an unofficial roport a Russian force is already traversing tho -Dobrudja, south of tho Danube and on the- confines, of Bulgaria. The idea has been advanced, and no doubt has weight, that a Russian invasion might supply tho last impulse needed to start a revolution.

Bulgaria in herself is now a factor of diminished importance in the war. She will no doubt submit, and if she doss not she will bo speedily Qonquerctl. But the prospects which her immediate submission would open are not exaggerated in the statement, quoted above, that the anticipated developments will result in an important change in the Balkan situation, and mark tho opening of a vitally important stage in the war. The submission of Bui-

garia. would at once give the Allies full command of the Balkan corridor, and bring an invasion of Hungary on the grand scale into immediate prospect. Even when the outlook is most promising it is wise not to take too much for granted, and the situation that is developing in South-eastern Europe must, of course, bb considered in its relation to events in other theatres. It may bo pointed out, however, that tho rapid rise of the southeastern campaign imposes new and tremendously heavy pressure on the oneray at a time when ho is overmatched and has lost the initiativo in tho main and Italian theatres. His prospects of assembling an adequate force for the defence of Hungary arc of the poorest. As far f ; s anything is certain in war, it is certain that ho caiinot approach the. concentration required in Hungary without giving ground and facing tho perils and penalties of retreat in tho theatres in which he is at present most heavily engaged. _ On the other hand, it is the merit of tho 1 position from the standpoint of tho Allies that the development of their campaign in the south-eastern theatre involves no reduction of their strength in the main theatres. Italy is possibly in this respect an exception to tho rule, but certainly not in any senso favourable to the enemy. What part she intends to take in the campaign in and beyond the Balkans has yet to appear, but it is possiblo that she may devote a considerable force to tho invasion of Hungary without sacrificing tho position of advantage she has now won ahead of'her own frontier.

According to a Reuter report just received, Bulgaria has declared war on Rumania, presumably in answer to the ultimatum mentioned in an earlier message. This shows only that German influence still _ holds sway at Sofia. How long it i 9 likely to do so is another matter. Facts which cannot be discounted, make it most unlikoly that Bulgaria will either attempt, or bo permitted, to maintain her present attitude for I many days. These facts are that Bulgaria is cut off from hope of effective aid and is imminently threatened with attack by superior forces on north and south. The fact that the Bulgars havo been permitted to invade Greek Macedonia, and have thus far practically only been held in play on the northern frontier, may suggest the thought that possibly the Allies are not in suoh strength in Greece as would permit them to open an offensive. But an examination of the situation as it appears disposes pretty satisfactorily of any such theory. It is not possible to _ appeal to specific official information in rebuttal of tho suggestion that Allied troops may have been withdrawn from Greece to other theatres, but the leading fact at the moment is that the Allies have moved out from their'' Salonika lines—a fortified front of fifty miles, largely covered by river, lako, and marsh—and taken up a front more than three times aB long, across Northern Greece and down the Struma to tho Aegean..

The present Allied line is also naturally strong, but certainly a much larger force is needed to keep it secure than would suffice to hold the Salonika lines against attack. On,their present long line the Allies have met and broken attacks in which the Bulgars seem to have employed a great part of their, total available force. All tho recent official reports indicate that the Allies are not only comfortably holding their own, but in some places arc advancing. That thoy have not made more rapid headway seems to be due only to tho fact that they are deliberately biding their timS. Tho extonsion of thoir lino and • the' genera) conditions obtaining make it fully evident that they are in powerful force. At its face value Bulgaria's declaration of war on Rumania is a general defiance, but. it still seems highly improbable that she will clect to fight to tho last ditch.

Official news of the Rumanian operations is scanty, but as far as it goes indicates that progress is being made. Unofficial reporte from difiorent quarters declare that tho Rumanians have forced the Transylvanian frontier, and occupied the important railway town of Brasso, but this lacks official confirmation. A prediction that tho enemy will abandon the deep inward ourvo of the Rumanian frontier iD order to shorten his front must stand muantimo for what it is worth, but it is, of course, trim that ho could materially shorten his front by ' abandoning a considerable part of Transylvania. According to the London Times, the dismissal of General yon Falkenhayn is a penalty for the Verdun failure, but this calls for some reservation. The failure of the Verdun offensive was fully apparent two months ago. Some, authorities assert that it was apparent at a much earlier date, but all possible doubt on the. subject disappeared yhen tho French demonstrated that they were capable, after meeting the whole weight of the enemy's onslaught at Verdun, of taking a full part along with their British Allies in tho greatest Allied offensive of the war. If General von'Falkenhayn's downfall had been due. solely to the debaclo at Verdun, it would have occurred when the Anglo-French offensive on the Sommo paralysed the German initiative.

The suggestion of . the same newspaper that von Hindenbueg is tho only man who could order a ruthless shortening of the Western front without producing a collapse in public faith raises a question of the gravest import, but also takes far too much for granted. No one is able or entitled to say at this timo that von HiNDENBtma or anyone else can effect a shortening of the enemy's Western front without seriously affecting public faith and confidence in Germany. This is one of the great of the war which may soon be put to a practical test.