PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2840, 3 August 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A bolder departure from tho trufch_ could not bo imagined than the Kaiser has made in, declaring that the second year of war has been ono of glory for- tho German army and navy. From tho German standpoint tho year has been one of almost unqualified failure- and defeat, and it ends with the armed might of Germany toppling on tho brink of disaster. The early part of the second year of war witnessed tho failure of the gigantic effort Germany mado in conjunction with Austria to inflict decisive defeat on Russia, and the September offensive of the Western Allies, which gave positive proof ofStheir rising power. The Verdun offensive, a colossal blunder, and the disastrous defeat suffered by the High Seas Meet in the' Battle of Jutland, are other salient events of tho year, and it ends with the Allies in cast and west well advanced in offensive actioin which has manifestly set them on the road to victory. The one decided success which rewarded the Austro-Gcrmans during the second twelve months'of war was tho occupation of Serbia and Montenegro. There was no glory in this achievement, and its chief result at this stage is to enlarge and increaso tho war burden which tho Central Empires are no longer capable of supporting. The account which the Kaiser has rendered so falsely is' completed in its broad essentials by taking note of abominable crimes, like the murder of Captain Fryatt and the deportation of French civilians, in which Germany is seeking revenge for her increasing discomfiture on the field of battle. Instead of glory the second year of war has brought Germany failure, defeat, and ignominy, and it ends with an imminent promise of her military downfall and the punishment of heL' atrocious crimes. Against tho hollow bombast of tho Kaiser it is possible to sot to-day statements by tho Allied Commanders in the Western thoatre which leave no room for doubt as to the position reached in the war. It is effectively summed up in General Joffre's declaration: "The moment approaches when, under a common impetus,_ tho • Gorman military power will completely give way." * * » *

Though there is no doubt that the Russians retain the upper hand, and aro making continued headway in the great enterprise they havo set in motion on their southern iront, some of the alleged news on the subject which comes from various quarters to-day must bo set aside as worthless. We may be tolerably certain, for instance, that the Austrians aro not already blowing up bridges which lio directly in their lino of retreat, as they arc alleged to be doing in a message transmitted from Amsterdam. The sensible plan now, as at other times, is to disregard sensational and' unsupported reports, and give heed to the official communiques and to messages which explain and amplify in detail facts definitely attested in the communiques. Within these limits the newsshows that the Russians are in sight of a very important success, and that considerable Austro-German forces on the front which extends from the Pripct marshes to the Carpathians are threatened not merely with defeat but with disaster. It must be recognised, however, that the issue of the tremendous' struggle in progress lias not yet been definitely determined. The enemy may be meditating the evacuation of Kovel junction, Vladimir Volinski (about thirty miles south of Kovel), and Lemberg, but such an intention on jus part has yet to appear. As reliable news stands, the Austro-Gor-mans are striving with might and main to stem the Russian advance on these vital centres. The news is good, because it shows that the j enemy defence is giving way under the sustained forco of the Russian i offensive. From the ollicial reports, it is to be seen that the Russi;Ujs o are steadily advancing on Kovel from | the cast and also on lines which

bring them nearer to outflanking the place on north and south. That the German defence has not yet so completely broken down as some of tho unofficial reports would imply is shown in the fact that at one point the Russians woro driven back to the west bank of tho 'Stochod, from they are in general advancing. The counterstroke w 7 as ultimately repelled, however, and does not seem to have materially affected the main trend, of the operations. The tendency of the later news is to show that the direct advance on Kovel along the railways which branch from it north-east and south-east, and in tho area between these lines, plays a secondary part to the flanking movements on north and south. _ As one message puts it, the Russians arc enveloping Kovel in a horseshoe formation. not merely at gaining possession of the junction, but at enveloping tho 'forces defending it.

A new development in the Russian, offensive disclosed to-day is a forward movement on tho north bank of tho Dniester. Further north the Austro-Gcrmans are still established on the lino of the River Strypa, west and south-west of Tarnopol. In their latest advance the Russians forced the passago of the Koropetz, a river which runs parallel with the Strypa, about a dozen miles further west. Another definite step has thus been taken towards tho envelopment of the Austro-Gorman forcos. in Central Galicia, which are already gravoly threatened with that fate as a result of tho Russian movement on Lemberg, by way of Brody, on the north-cast, and General Letchitsky's advance on Stanislau, through the country south of the Dniester.

As Austrian communique reports tho capture of 90 officors and 18,000 men on the front south of the Pripet marshes (north-east of ICovcl). If this were a truthful account of late events, it would mean that the Russians had suffered a serious set-back in the region indicated, but the report is so far out of tune with the trend of authenticated news that it seems safe to set it aside. Ono explanation would bo that it is a; return covering a longthy period, and having no bearing upon the present conflict, but it is not impossible that it is simply an invention, a detail in the campaign of dceoption by which the enemy authorities are seeking to withhold knowledge of the actual course of ovenls from their home populations. An illuminating bxample _of the iashion in which the Austrian public is being de'eoived at the present time is supplied in the statement of tho Vienna fiieue Fric Pressc, that a largo number of Turks passed, through Lemberg on Monday to' join von Hindenhurg, supposedly to take part with the Germans in a great offonsivo against Pctrograd. Reasons for believing that the Germans will attempt no offensive against, Pctrograd aro apparent, and as to tho Turks it is abundantly clear that they have moro than enough to do at home. Feeding their public with fairy tales of this kind the Austrian and German authorities are really doing good work for the - Allies. _ The moral effect of the ultimate disillusionment will naturally bo in proportion to the suecoss of the present deceit.

While the Austro-Gcrmans arc talking about Turkey as a reservoir pf reinforcements, she is visibly failing in her own campaigns. Tho Russians arc not only extending their invasion west of Erzingan, but are advancing on Mosul, on the •Upper Tigris. If this advance continues, it may lead to concortcd action by the British forces in Mesopotamia. Tho time of the year is not favourable for campaigning along the Me'sopotamian river lines, but this may not be a determining 'factor.

A lull is Reported, on. tho Sommo front, which must represent to the Germans a_ brief respite preceding an oven grimmer struggle than/the one which has resulted in tho.deep and dangerous penetration of their fortified front. Tho positions lately won' by the Allies include important vantage-points from which to further develop tho offensive, and no doubt tho presont halt will be of very limited duration.

An announcement that the Greek demobilisation baa been completed is chiefly of interest at the- moment as indicating thattho way has been cleared for an Allied offensive from Salonika. It cannot be doubted that the powerful concentration of British, French, and Serbian troops based on the' Greek port has a part to play in developing that common' impetus of which General Joffre has spoken, and the best reason for Relieving that action from Salonika will not be much longer delayed is to be found in the course of events in the main theatres. Rumania has yet to show her hand and announce the decision for continued neutrality or war which will materially influence the prospective Balkan campaign, but, according to a message from Bucharest, public sentiment in favour of intervention is rising rapidly, and promisos to become overwhelming. The people of Rumania have been stirred to enthusiasm by Russian victories, but it is -not impossible that the Rumanian Government has already come "to an agreement with the .Allies, and is simply awaiting the signal to join with them in Concerted military action.