WHEN THE WAR ENDS

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2793, 10 June 1916, Page 6

WHEN THE WAR ENDS

WHAT FUTUREI

OUR GREAT PROSPERITY TO-DAY

BUT NEED FOR SAVING

A ■ glance Aiicad to the days following the cessation of war was essayed by Mr. Harold Beauchamp .yesterday in his annual address to the proprietors of tho Bank of New Zealand. Mr. Beauchauip said that, with the enormous expenditure on war goods and war services, it was not surprising that there is considerable trade aotivity and much prosperity the world over. "Even in Brituin the working classes' are fully employed, and are receiving extraordinarily high wages, and, if reports speak truly, the labouring people of the other belligerent States are in a similarly thriving condition. New Zealand has shared, to an abnormal extent, in what may be termed 'war prosperity.' There has been an excentional demand for our wool, meat, and dairy produce, and prices have rcached a particularly high level. To realise to what extent we have profited by the war, it is only necessary to give the export and import figures of the-Dominion for the last few-years.- The figures are:— Year 1 Excess of ended - Imports.'. Exports;. exports. Mar.3l. <6;. ... _.£ 1916 ... 21,308,431 35,468,391 12,159,960 1915 ... 19,805,057 ' 27,165,803 7,6G0,71fi 1914 ~ 21,835,154 23,438,42S 1,603,274 1913 ... 21,309,688 22,643,265 1,333,577 • '■'Specie is excluded from these figures. This improvement in the trade of the country ,is also reflected •in the banking deposits of the same period:— '■ Free_ ~ Fixed, Total deposits., deposits." -deposits. 31' * 1916 ... 19,091,9-19 12,182,104 31,274,053 1915 ... 15,958,'732 ... 10,870,507 26,829,239 1914 ... 13,475,771 ' 10,554,479 24,030,250 1913 ... 13,460,530 10,426,726 23,887,256 "It will be seen that, as compared with the year 1913, the free deposits have 'increased.by ,£5,631,419, and the fixed deposits by £1,155,378, or, together by - .£7,386,797. .Advances and discounts also reflect financial ,'ease, as they hove remained -practically stationary. The figures should be.placed.on,record. They aro. as follows:— Discounts. Advances.. Total. Mar. 31. J2 . £ ,£ : 1916 ... 1,487,655 22,246,237 23,733,892 1915 . ... 1,634,418 22,106,144' 23,740,562 1914 ... 2,017,107 21,649,643 ''23,GGG,750 1913 ... 1,967,351 21,025,105 22,992,456 "It is not only the customers of tho banks of issue that are accumulating large credits. Those who find it convenient to place their small savings in the Post Office Savings Bank are also increasing their holdings. For the jinst three years ' the deposits, in and with-' drawals from the Post Olfico Savings Bank were:— Excess of Tear, Deposits. Withdrawals. Deposits £ £ ' £ 1915 ... 13,706,057 11,294,974 2,411,083 1914 ... 11,901,321 . 10,603,017 . 1,301,301 1913 ... 11,286,702 11,041,451 215,248 , "The savings last year, it will be seen, were very considerable. Roughly,, they wero equal to about £2 per head of tho entire: jjopUlation, which is a very creditable record. The gains and losses of the war to New Zealand are obvious; High prices for produce have brought us considerable wealth, which probably, would have been much greater had wo commanded fuller shipping facilities. On the other hand, tho departure from the country of so large a number of the flower of our manhood is, while an absolute necessity, causing a serious disturbance in the economic and'industrial lil'o of tho community . - . ""Looking to the future, wo may safely conclude that tho world which will emerge from the war will bo a very different world from that which entered it. Permutations, and changes, of a far-reaching character may be expected to take place. So far as the Dominion is .concerned, we ; shall be faced, at •' the close of tho war, ;with two questions--Loth vital to our in ; terests... New Zealand is. a producing country, and, by necessity, a borrowing one, and the state of the produce markets, and of the money market,.will have considerable bearing on our futuro prosperity and development. Tho present war is on such an enormous and unexampled scale that 'we have no reliable precedents to guide us in forecasting , post-war conditions, and, as far as tho produce markets are concerned, it is particularly difficult to mako assertions with confidence. Europo will almost certainly be compelled to economise—Great Britain quite as much as the other belligerents. Now,, assuming the present consumers of our products will be forced to economise, it is obvious that they .will be unable to pay high prices for tho foodstuffs, we send'them. The' values of all our products, therefore, must naturally bo expected to fall, and to fall perhaps rather heavily, from those current to-day. Tho measure of that fall is, however, tho uncertain feature, being dependent on the markets which will be open to us and to a variety of other circumstances.

"Fortunately, this country is differently situated to many others, in, that the pro-' ducts of tho soil—to which it looks Tor' its chief support and wealth—are increasing in a much greater, ratio, than its population, wherens, in tho Northern Hemisphere, the contrary is the case. It seems, therefore, that should we be fnctd with any set-back after the termination of hostilities, it will be but of a temporary character, and .jvo may therefore look hopefully to tho future.

"As regards tho prospects of tho money market, there -are grounds for speaking with moro 'confidence. So much capital will be wanted in Europo that there will bo very little to sparo for other countries: certainly tliero will bo no clmiicb of. obtaining money at pre-war rates. . Even if wo should bo prepared to borrow at tho then ruling rates, the British Government might find it necessary to continuo tho present restrictions on capital issues, i Today, as you are aware, no loan or issue of shares can bo placed on tho London market, without the sanction of tho Treasury; and even in the case of maturing bonds and debentures, tho permission of the Treasury is needed to arranga a re : nowal, although both lendor and borrower are- willing. Thero is uoffiing to prevent this embargo continuing for. some time after the.war has terminated.

"Thero are disquieting features in tlie possible post-war conditions, and for that reason it is of the utmost importance that the people of New Zealand, while ffiey have the opportunity, should recognise the true value of economy. Tho moro we save, the better we shall bo able to assist the Empire now and to faco the unfavourable conditions that must, I fear, inevitably follow' the declaration of peace. This is, obviously, the only prudent course to adopt, and the need, therefore, for economy cannot be too strongly urged upon every class of tho community."