THE WHEAT OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2719, 14 March 1916, Page 8

THE WHEAT OUTLOOK

STATISTICAL POSITION REVIEWED

The.statistical''-position of wheat is . a; very weak one from tho' producers' point of view, but (remarked "BrooinLall," lat the close if tho year), there ; are special factors this season to be : ; reckoned with, which effectually over- '. ride the ordinary laws of supply and demand; the ordinary statistics may bo as bearish as can well be conceived and yet' they will, under special cir- ; cmnistancos, i) 0 oifisefc; by;' sentiment alone—at any 'rate for a time.' -The ■ ■ actual; day ;to ;ddy demand this'..season , is 'both incessant, and active, and while it is iiot really large, yet it is all. ! . directed' dt • one ' source , this instance the North American—anil ' •operators, in that special locality are i naturally mado vory bullislily inclined. This state of affairs may reasonably ..' be expected to change as soon as other ' V. sources of .supply begin to flow freely. ,' ■ An incessant and long-continued de- . .maud-for at least .a million quarters !■ per week from North America must a bo viewed in Chicago and Winnipega very potent factor, but as sooj as Australia and Argentina cut'into ; this demand and leavo'it only one-half or perhaps only mie-thircl as large, the I v result; should , bo - very important > for }V ■ tbat source of supply has not- yet-beeri , really , seriously, drawn upon,: at "any • , rate not when its relative size; is considered witli t-hat.of last season. Tho I:. total -production , "of wheat, in North 'America, after . deducting l 100,000,000 !bushels rendered unfit during harvestjo ing for ''milling purposes, is 158,000,000 ; quarters this season, compared 1 with 180,000,000 quarters last season." Last ; 'season North' America exported almost - 50,000,000 quarters, and consequently r .should have something like' 78,000,000 '.. quarters to spare this season. lOf 'this. :' , .gjreat. quantity: less than 24,000,000 •'-.quarters have been exported so far (21 ; weeks) during the time, be it remembered, when America had the world's markets ; almost to; herself...: What !; chance then' Can, sho have of disposing of; the balance of ■ her surplus,.'viz., ; , 61,000,000 quarters, before the date of her next harvest, which will bo ready v.. for shipment- six "months hence 'during V .'tho. veiy period, moreover, when Aus-

' tralia and Argontiria- will bo endeavour- > ing to market their surpluses—surpluses ■' wbich_ are grown with the sole 'object ■ ' of being exported, and : which are invariably shipped away, to the extent of two-thirds ot three-fourths :of 'tlid ! Whole quantity, within, six',months of ; ; being harvested. It is estimated that ■ these two' growers this : season have-to-. gether : 2o to 30 million f able for export- and during the ensuing . six months, ;will wish to market , at least

: >20,000,000 quarters. In addition, juilg- ! ing from former experience,, :,jiidia r Bhculd' have three or ,four million'quar- ' ters available for. export next May, Juno aild July,' so that iii ihe'aggregat'iS' <'■ there is the enormously large surplus ; of 77,000,000 (juartors .waiting to lie. marketed - : during: tho ensuing six

or seven.'months,'; or a weekly average of 2^500,000 qiinrters to'meet estimated requirements of : 1.100,000 to 1,200,000 Quarters, per ..'week.','..,: .