PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2719, 14 March 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

' More exact information than is available concerning German reserves of men and material, and other matters, is needed to enable a definite opinion to be formed as to the positi'on reached in the Battle of Verdun. But to-day's news, if it is necessarily inconclusive in regard to the final outcome of the battle, presents one or two salient facts which are of the utmost importance, and the general tone of the news is distinctly hopeful. Though it is not possible'to say that the enemy has tailed once and for all Jio master Verdun and the heights of the Mouse, it is now established very clearly that ho has. failed to make any appreciable progress towards this goal in efforts which have involved on his part an appalling sacrifice of life. The main effect of reports at present in hand is to give clearor definition to events which were touchcd upon more briefly in yesterday's news, and to confirm and intensify an impression that tKe Germans, In a battle of unexampled violence, achieved oijly trivial gains, and this at a cost not less than they might have expected to pay for a great victory. Official reports arc habitually terse and studiously modcrate in tone, but there is one today which states that when attacks thrice repeated had been broken, on the front west of Douaumont, the field' was covered with German corpses. According to one correspondent, Friday's battle was for the Germans the bloodiest of the war. It was a battle in which whole brigades were wiped out as they advanced. ■Sacrificing lives in this fashion with unexampled prodigality, the Germans have to set against their losses a few score, or at most a few hundred, yards of trenches. In the bloodiest battle of tbc war they have made no greater gain than has time and again rewarded a surprise dash by a company or two of infantry, in the innumerable local actions whic. have been fought on the Western front. If this is hot failure it looks very much like an earnest of failure. On the facts it seems impossible .that M. Makcel Hutin can be wrong in his judgment that the Germans" are unable to maintain the big attack much longer, and equally impossible, that they can intensify or. throw much greater power into the assaults which thus far have broken against ; the French defences in vain so far 1 us any definite approach to victory ' is concerned.

It is no longer possible to regard tho German attacks at Verdun as in the nature of covering operations, preliminary to greater and more powerful assaults backed by ti stronger force of artillery. Tho enemy may have such resources at command as will enable him tu spread the area of his offensive, but a greater concentration of men and guns than he is described as having effected in tho recent battles can hardly be regarded as within tho bounds of possibility. One message to-day is based upon the statement of a' German .artilleiy officer, taken prisoner, who says that his compatriots brought into action hundreds of heavy ruyis and advanced tj'iem in o solid block, intending to blast their way through the French lines. Mountains of shells were accumulated to enable these massed batteries to maintain a continuous fire, but a rairt of shells from tha French guns compelled them to disperse. This report goes more into details than most of those by which it is accompanied, but otherwise it is quite in keeping with a budget 'ot news which indicates that the French defence is standing the strain, not ■ of preliminary atacks, but of assaults pressed with all the power and fury of which the Germans are capable.

A French statcinont, apparently BCmi-ofncial or inspired, declares that the hopelessness of a German victory at Verdun means that a new Btage of the war is opening in which the Allies will take the offensive when they have reached the top ot their strength. No more is claimed here than that the Germans are putting forth such an effort at Verdun as they are not likely to be able to repeat. For the rest the estimate is cautious to a fault, and no promise is made that the Allies will follow up the German stroke with any early counter-stroke. Tho result, of course, is negative and affords no indication niie way or the other of Allied policy, but taking what is knov.-n of tho broad facts of the war it seems highly probable tliat the return of better weather ill northern latitudes will witness an outburst of battle iu many war areas. Though tho mighty Verdun battle retains for the time an unchallenged claim to the centre of the stage there are various items to-day which point to a stir of activity by the Allies in other theatres.

The Italians have opened a genera) bombardment on the Isonuu front, sufficiently out of the ordinary to be made the subject of can-mmiqu-cs by both parties. In Galicia tho Russians have attacked and captured part of a. village on the

Dniester. There are suggestions, too, that a period of action is being approached in the Balkans. Weather conditions, in their bearing upon the movement of troops and transport, may delay developments of major importance in the Eastern theatres for some time yet, but the period •in which the Germans can' reckon upon comparative stagnation clseyvhei'e than in the Western theatre is being rapidly cut down. What is known of their standing points to the probability of action by the Allies upon the grand scale at no very distant date. Coping though they are with a German oid for a big decision, the Western Allies are undoubtedly holding a very great body of strength in reserve. The British Army in Franco and Flanders is playing no more active a part at ths taomeut than is involved in the everyday routine of the war. In regard to the other main theatre wa have been told by the Russian War Minister that the fearful gaps made in tlio Russian ranks last year, havo all been made good, that in addition great reserves arc available, and that the shell shortage, which more than _ anything else crippled the Russians in face of the German offensive, is a thing of the past. Accepted at their face value these statements should mean that the Russians, in the season of good weather about to open, will be able, to take the offonsivo against the Germans in the area they deem most suitable.

It is to be supposed that the Russians will strike, when the time is ripe, on their southern front. This not only because action in the south offers in itself large prospects of advantage, but because it will fit in naturally with Allied operations in the Balkans and pave the way for the intervention of Rumania, for which events are said to be shaping. Some of the most interesting reports in hand to-day relate to the Bal--Ikans, and they are all the more interesting because of their very direct and important , bearing upon events in the main theatres. The statement of the Daily Chronicle's correspondent at Salonika ffiat. almost everybody is convinced that the enemy will not uow attack Salonika is not exactly news, it stresses a point of very great importance. Until the end of last year a great effort by the enemy to drive the Allies out of Greece was regarded as inevitable. That he has made ho such attempt seems incapable of any other explanation than that he has refrained on account of weakness. /

The newer developments and prospects which give interest to the present situation, as they are reported, are that discontent against the Germans is gathering head in Bulgaria, and that Rumania is likely soon to intervene in the war in favour of the Entente. This last statement is made by a German newspaper and backed by the opinion' of German correspondents. Better _ authority could be desired, _ but it is quits possible that in this matter the Gcin mans are recognising the inevitable. Their prediction gains weight from the fact that circumstances promise to make it very much to the interest of Rumania to throw in Her lot with the Entente. The remarks of tho Chronicle correspondent concerning Bulgaria deserve particular attention. .He suggests, briefly, that the Bulgarians consider they have carried out tlicit part in the war _ victoriously, and are tired of 1 waiting for a German victory which would enable them to regard their own victory as final. It is interesting to turn from this to a statement made in December by the Bulgarian Commander-in-Chief (General Jekoff) to a Hungarian war correspondent. Touching upon the outcome of the Serbian campaign and the position in which Bulgaria found nerself placed, General Jekoff either did not commit himself to an opinion as to whether Bulgarian troops would join in an attack upon the Allies at Salonika, or if he did, his remarks on tho point were deleted by the enemy censor. But upon one point General Jekoff was definite. "It is as ridiculous," ho said, "for the Entente Powers to begin operations round Salonika after the defeat of i Serbia as for Russia to prepare for an attack against Bulgaria. It would be simply grotesque that at the moment when France is being pressed from the east and Russia from tbo wqst, by the Central Powers, the Entente Powers should waste their time and energy in transplanting the field of operations to the Balkans, and undertaking a campaign the whole burden of whiih would lie on their shoulders. But should Russia attempt an attack in spite of this, she would find that <mr opposition would be just as iieico as it was against the French and British." Further than this Gbxelwu, Jekoff declared his confidence that. Rumania would remain neutral, "for if she did not move last spring, when tho Russians were in the Carpathians, it is almost impossible to believe that she will abandon her neutrality now, when the .armies of the Central Powers are advancing victoriously on all fronts."

As a whole, the statement of the Bulgarian Commander-in-Chief betrays a fixed belief that his country would be left in undisturbed possession of its ill-gotten gains,, pending the time when an Austro-German victory iri the war would make these gains secure. This is not more clear than that these airy hopes are now threatening .to tumble down in ruin. General Jekoff's opinion to tho contrary notwithstanding, the Allies are massing a great force at Salonika, which can only be destined for offensive operations on .a .big scale. More important still, the .Russians have recovered magnificently and have given positive evidence of their reviving strength both in the main j theatre and in the minor campaigns in which they arc now making such 'important headway. The awkward plight of Turkey, of course, has its meaning for Bulgaria, and a factor which is likely to give her more immediate concern than any other is the natural effect of these various developments upon the attitude and policy of Rumania. The bright hopes and ' prospects which General j ekoff set out so succinctly have already in large measure vanished, nnd nothing is more likely than that n fairly' general perception of the fact in Bulgaria has given' rise to the state of public feeling described by tho Chronicle correspondent. ..

It has been suggested recently, by Colonel llni'iNGTON amongst others, that the Allies would be bettor off with the Salonika army in the Westem theatre, and that Germany benefits by the absence of l these troops from the thca-tre in'which she is now seeking a decision. If the forces at Salonika were engaged in a detached campaign, Coloxei, Eepington and those who share his view would undoubtedly be right. As

matters stand it is a question whether they are not confusing the necessity of meeting and breaking tho German offensive with that of preparing for an offensive against Germany and her Allies calculated to crush and bring them .to defeat. The presence of an Allied army at Salonika obviously entails a reduction in the total available Allied strength in the Western theatre, but present prospects are that the Salonika army will take part in operations valuably supplementing an offensive by the Russians on their southern front, and making generally for a great combined assault upon the Central Empires where they aie much less able to withstand attack than on the Western front.

This is not the only angle from which the presence of an Allied | Army at Salonika must be viewed. In the first place it must be considered that if the Allies had failed to maintain a foothold in Greece, both that country and Rumania might very possibly have been swept into the Austro-German fold. The idea that it is the supreme aim of German policy to concentrate undividedly in the main theatres, and that Germany can afford to regard Allied forces in the Balkans as diverted from the theatre in 'which they would do her most damage, is in any caso somewhat new and in vital respects unconvincing.. Not so very long ago we were being told of projects for carrying the war fiom the Near to the Middle East, and for a Turkish invasion of_ Egypt. Thi.se projects have been in part al .indoned and partly scotched,_ cut it can hardly be held that this result was anticipated and played for by the Germans. It seems much nearer the truth that the Allied position in the Near East lias been transformed and Vastly improved by vigo/ous action—tho action of the Russians in Persia and Armenia, of the British in Mesopotamia,' and of the French and British at Salonika. Possibilities, of course, are still somewhat open, but assuming that current reports about Rumania are ! not overdrawn there are reasonably good prospects of isolating and defeating Turkey ; overwhelming "Bulgaria, and bringing considerable forces to bear, in co-operation with the Russians and Italians, against the south-eastern flank of the Central Empires. Assuming that tbey have forces to spare for the purpose, Germany and Austria can c!o a*good deal to oppose and delay these developments, but if they are under the necessity of sending considerable forces into the Balkans,' the contention that the Entente troops devoted to that area .are unprofitably diverted loses a good deal of its force, if it is not entirely invalidated. .*« # ■ *

Nothing loss than that Rumania

has crossed the Rubicon and entered the war is implied in messages just received. They are unofficial, however, and must await confirmation. The report of the Daily Mail's correspondent at Odessa speaks for it- ] self. It is to the effect that a Rumanian vessel and Rumanian troops have been attacked respectively by the Bulgarians and by the Austrians, and that there have been numerous casualties on both sides. If this story is true it can hardly be taken to mean anything but that Rumania will henceforth share the fortunes of the Entente in the war. _ While it awaits confirmation lit gains colour meantime from a Bucharest report to the cffect'that Russia has arranged to supply Rumania with munitions, and also has agreed to givc x her part of Bessarabia. To this territory Rumania has as clear a claim, on racial grounds and on account of its former, possession, as she has to Transylvania.

* » * « . • Possibly exaggerated accounts have been given lately of the military strength- of Rumania, but her army consists probably of at least half a million men. It is organised under an efficient General Staff, and is fairly well provided with artillery, though, perhaps, not quite on the scalc demanded by European warfare in its later developments.

The Russian advance to Kerind, in Western Persia, 130 miles east-:north-east of Bagdad, -has an important bearing on the Mesopotamian campaign. Kcririd is fifty miles from the Turco-Persian border at Khanykin, to which town a railway route has "been surveyed from Bagdad. Since the. British forces at and near Kut-cl-Araara are separated from Bagdad by a route of 200 miles (though only 100 miles distant in a direct line) the Rus-! sians are actually nearer to _ that objective. It remains a question whether they can reasonably risk an advance in limited force to Bagdad through the frbntier mountains o£ Persia and the barren lands beyond, but the moral effect of their forward movement even in its present stage will doubtless be great. _ A report from Potrograd, not official, declares that the Russians are determined to stnto for the Bagdad railway and cut off that city from the rest of the Empire. This is good, news' if true, but it may be the' principal immediate intention of the announcement to demoralise the Turks. •