PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2692, 11 February 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

What purports to be a glimpse from a new angle of the enemy's peacc intrigues is given in the report published by the Giornale d'ltalia that Germany not long ago offered to conclude a separate peace with Belgium. _ Like all other stories of its kind, this one is incapable at the moment of definite proof or disproof, but it is a little curious that this news should follow so soon after the announcement that Lord Curzon had been sent on a special mission to the King of the Belgians. That the enemy is eager., to obtain an advantageous peace is not in doubt, and his intrigues to that end may easily take stranger shape than the reported offer to Belgium. Looking at the reported terms of the offer, it is easy to believe that it _ was actually made. True, it mentions an indemnity and "restoration as before the war,*" but other details show that Belgium was not offered even a surface semblance of "restoration as before the war." Germany, it is stated, proposed to retain Antwerp and Ostend as German ports. In other words, she proposed to retain practically all that she' could hone to gain by a continued occupation of Belgium to the end of a victorious war. Germany has turned covetous eyes on Belgium not so much out of a desire ( for territorial aggrandisement as because she is eager to obtain more coast-line and better ports— and ports from which she could ultimately strike at Britain. Retaining the chief Belgian ports, she could well afford to restore a semblance of independence to the country she. has outraged, and even to as _ far as possible make good the ruinous damage done by her invading armies.

There is nothing in the offer said to have been made to Belgium to warrant any departure from the opinion that though Germany is eager to enter into peace negotiations she is only willing to do so as. yet from the standpoint of a conqueror. < Her obvious motive in separately approaching Belgium would be the hope of to some extent confusing the plans of the Allies at a time when initiative in the war threatens to pass finally from her hands. _ The defection of Belgium is happily unthinkable. Her reported answer is the answer that might have been expected—a clear and uncompromising defiance. By any other _ nation than Germany such an attitude on the part of Belgium would have been taken for granted, but the Germans arc themselves slaves in spirit and in political practice, and are therefore illcapable'of estimating the spirit of independence which animates a nation like the Belgians. It is quite possible that they not only made the offer to Belgium which is reported, but thought that it might prove acceptable. v

A sudden German blow at Rumania is foretold by the Gorriere delta Sera, and its prediction 1 is accompanied by some very just observations on the necessity of affording Rumania ample support if she should be so attacked. The Allies have lost much ground in the Balkans by weakness and lack of foresight, and it would be an unpardonable blunder on their part if they were now to allow Germany to bring Rumania to terms by a sudden coup. Happily there is little reason to fear such a catastrophe. All reports agree that Rumania is alertly on guard, and positive evidence has been given that the Allies are now alive to the importance of vigorous and full-powered action in the Balkans and in the campaigns which have an immediate' bearing upon events in the Balkans. There is more news to-day which goes to indicate that Rumania before long will take action on the side of the Allies. The Echo de Paris says that_ according to the latest Rumanian information the situation is developing towards intervention. M. Bratiano, it is added, maintains the policy of neutrality with difficulty.

Taking this to be the position, it is not easy to sec what Germany would gain by attacking Rumania, unless it be assumed that she is better prepared for a general conflict in the Balkans and on the Russian front in Bukowina and further north than arc the Allies. Of this there is certainly no evidence; visible evidenco suggests the contrary. The nature of the operations during the last few weeks on the Russian southern front, which now touches the north-western corner of Rumania, is 'a sufficient guarantee that 'the latter country will not be left unaided in the event of a German attack. Thanks to the assistance they received from Bulgaria, the Austro-Germans were able to invade' and over-run Serbia with four or five army, corps. No such limited force will serve their purpose if they contemplate an attack on Rumania. Attempting so much they must reckon upon the action that would naturally be taken by the Russians, and it is fairly safe to say that an attack upon Rumania at "this stage would be the immediate inspiration of such a blaze of fighting as even this war has not often witnessed. An attack upon Rumania as a country ranged definitely on the side of, the Allies does not exhaust possibilities. however. It is to be considered that Rumania may still be halting short of a decision. The p,voGerman party is perhans not so completely overshadowed as Token's reports have indicated. In 'these circumstances a military threat, intended to reinforce German diplomatic action, might not be without its influence. But unless tho bulk of the late and current news concerning Rumania is-absolutely misleading, a German military threat is more likelv to drive hkt into the arms of tlw Allies tha/n to. induce Jmr to submit to the Gejygan .will,

In its broad aspects the position reached in the Balkans and-adjacent areas seems to afford no ground for undue apprehension. Weeks ago it was admitted by M.ajor Moraht and other writers in the leading German newspapers that the success won against the Serbs could only be regarded as a half-victory. "It is not for this (a half-victory) that we have shed our precious blood," wrote Major Moraht. "Just as surely as we have smashed the Serbians, so surely will the attack on the Anglo-French auxiliaries follow." The promised attack has not yet materialised, and a half-victory which was claimed for the Germans a- month or two ago is in danger of escaping them. Even the Serbians have not been "smashed" in any final or conclusive sense. It .is reported to-day that G5,000 Serbian soldiers have now been landed at Corfu, and that within a' couple of days the number will reach 100,000. Before long this force will presumably be added to the-.strength of the Entente army which the Germans in the flush of their partial and inconclusive victory affected to despise, _ With no small portion of the available Turkish forces detailed against the Russians in Armenia and others engaged in Mesopotamia, prospects of effective action by the army > based on Salonika are daily growing brighter. Still greater importance must be attached to late developments on the Russian southern front. The prospect of a Russian advance through Rumania is still in the air, but the Russian concentration and the counter-concentration of the enemy upon the two hundred miles of tljo main Eastern front between the Pripet marshes ancl the Rumanian frontier is a positive and visible-development with a direct bearing and influence upon events in the Balkans. ' « * * #

Competent authorities arc said to estimate the strength 'of the enemy formations on this two hundred miles of front at well over a million bayonets. It is the accepted view that the German offensive in the Balkans was inspired by a desire of enlisting Bulgaria and making the most profitable use of Turkish military _ strength. The position reached in that Germany, without having made her footing secure in the Balkans, as witness the continued immunity of the Allies at Salonika, is under the necessity of defending the northern approaches to the peninsula with very great forces which might be much more profitably used elsewhere. General Mackensen with his million men or more, a great part of them massed in Bukowinia, adjacent to Rumania, has powerful _ forces conveniently placed for action in the Balkans. But' he cannot take such action, either against Rumania, or against the_ Allies at Salonika, without inviting -a shattering Russian stroke against his line further north, or wherever conditions best favour an attack. This is the position to-day as far as it is visible, and the continued inaction of the cnem.v is the best proof that its main features have not been overdrawn. Meantime the Allies are necessarily approaching the time when they will be able to take the offensive under favourable conditions both in south and north. ; • » » * ' Rather incomplete and fragmentary accounts arc given of some very heavy and desperate fighting on sections of the Western front, in which the Germans are said to be endeavouring to improve and strengthen their line against the contingency of an Allied offensive. Operations of this character seem to have re'ached their height in the neighbourhood of Vimy, a few miles north of Arras, but whether the Germans have made any material pain of ground is not clearly determined. An official report says that they penetrated the French first-line trenches, but «tvere afterwards expelled. Another message takes it for granted that' they improved their line to some extent.