The Dominion. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 1916. WHAT THE YEAR 1916 WILL SHOW

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2692, 11 February 1916, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 1916. WHAT THE YEAR 1916 WILL SHOW

The note of prophecy is sounded in the New Year issues of. the London newspapers which arrived by the latest English mail. But it is a restrained note. There are two sides to the prophet's role. To foretell the future is one part of his mission, the other is to tcach, t& encourage, and to warn. The English newspaper prophets show a marked disinclination to indulge in direct prediction as to the fortunes of war during the year 1916. They content themselves, with the more modest task of maintaining and intensifying the spirit of victory, and of discussing probabilities and possibilities. All that can be expected of them is an intelligent attempt to give a broad and rational idea of the probable development of events. The British public entered on the New Year in a chastened spirit. We have learned many lessons since the war began. The over-confidence with which we' commenced the conflict has given nlace tn a. clearer understanding of the magnitude of our task. In spite of miscalculations and, disappointments, Britain unshaken in her determination to win at all costs, to fight on till the power oi the enemy is shattered. There is no sign of war weariness. The general feeling is that 1916 is to be an annus mirabilis—a, year of wonders. An expectation of tremendous happenings pervades the nation. Tho present year may not see the end of the struggle, but there are strong reasons for accepting the view expressed by the London Observer that the next nine months of fighting will definitely forecast the final decision. The means of victory are in our hands; the tide_ is turning in our favour; we are in a much stronger position than we were a year ago. The Empire must now prepare itself for the final trial of strength. Everything depends upon the moral stamina of the people and the way in which the resources of the Allies are utilised. "The truth which most saliontly emerges from the past year," 1 says the Morning Post, "is that the country is trying to fight a new fight with old' weapons. . . . The year 1916 finds us in the midst of transition. That the change will be accomplished is reasonably certain. . .. Thqre is a new spirit abroad." The most cautious writers express the belief that the tide which leads ,to fortune is coming. If so, let us take it at the flood. That is the New Year message to the Empire and to our Allies. Wc must brace up for the greatest effort of all. The one fear: a premature peace. Many of-the New Year articles and messages lay stress on the danger of stopping short of decisive victory. This is one of the pitfalls that the [enemy is preparing for us. The principle of "divide and conquer" has become a very important element in German policy. A, cablegram which wc publish this morning states that Germany recently made proposals to Belgium for a separate peace. They were firmly rejected, but the incident shows that the enemy_is prepared to make tempting offers in the hope of breaking the bonds which unite the Entente Powers. In response to a request for his ideas as to what the year 1916 holds in store for us, M. Maurice Maeterlinck, the distinguished Belgian author, said he preferred to express his fears rather than his hopes. He-believes that a foreseeis more likely to prevent evils than an ill-considered optimism is likely to bring forth good. 1 will admit," he says, "that above everything I fear that peace may be concluded before the war is really ended—that is to say before the enemy human race is at deaths door and is prevented for ever from doing damage." He declares that such an opportunity of assuring the happiness of the world may never recur. _ A similar thought nncls expression in President Poincabe's message to. the soldiers of France. There can be no half-way «?«ti°n of the problem which the Allies have to solve. M. Poincare warns his countrymen against pence offers that may come with suspicious aspect anc! equivocal terms. "Any peacc which should offer ambiguous compromises and bastard combinations would only bring us beneath deceitful appearances, dishonour, ruin, and enslavement." The* Bishop of London strikes the same note with the utmost firmness He r « mi nds us. that we are fighting for all the things that are eesential to lasting pcacc. In such-a war anything is better than a premature peace; anything is better than lcaving it all to be done over again bv our children; anything is better than that sons and husbands should have died in vain." "No peace before victory" would be a good motto for the present momentous year.

In the confused mass of detail and the welter of conflicting opinions it is easy to lose sight of the main outline of the war problem as it presents itself at itho opening of the New_ Year. The problem is stated as .simply as possible in the Observer. The enemy knows that well before the end of ,the present year the man-power of the Central Empires must begin to decline, while that of the Allies is rapidly rising By making up for losses in men by increase m machine-guns, the Germans calculate that at the worst they can hold out this year, and keep their defensive lines unbroken on both sides of Europe. They hope that the Allies will dash away their surplus of men in attacks on the enemy s entrenched lines, and so the war would end in a draw. This is a strong plan, and it is the business of the combined, military staffs of the Allies to work out the conquering counter-plan.' How is our superior power to be employed so as to enable us to impose our will upon' our adversaries? Strong soldiers believe that the Allies, by combined assault, will shatter the German and Austrian lines'both East and West That is one view. . Other authoritics contend th&t the enemy's lines ought first to be turned, and that they can best be turned through the Balkans. .

• If Hi:ssia and the other Allies movitsides once met triumphantly in the Balkans, and held the complete mastery of the peninsula, three or four 1 great things would happen. The Turkish Empire would bo subdued, the very vitals of Austria-Hunsarv would bo menaced, the line of attack and defence would be so extended that the cnemv after a certain noint this vear,,would not have the nieaiis to hold 'it, and in th ß «tul even tjie Gtal'liwii l>tu'flni' In Hip Vi'mfc would col apae in ruin under the Franco. Eriiwh, attack.

If the method of direct assault should fail, the Allies might hold the enemy oil both sides in Europe, and by their superiority of force secure a decision in their favour in the Balkans. If the Central Empires can be firmly contained both in East and West, sea power and the military movements it facilitates may reasonably be expected to secure ultimate victory for the Allies. The 'Daily Mail thinks that there, are two ways in which the Allies can avoid a deadlock. The first is by the pressure of sea power. The second way is to go over, if we cannot go through, _ the Gorman lines. The air provides opportunities for unlimited mobility. "By employing air-craft on a vast scale with the extremest energy the impasse might be ended .and a decision reached." On one point there is no difference of opinion among the New Year prophets, and that is that we can win if we have the will to win.