PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2670, 17 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Past statements made from time to time by Mr. Lloyd George on the subject of munitions manufacture have not, as a rule, been very explicit, as indicating the respective strength of the Allies and their enemies in regard to these all-im-portant supplies. For months the Minister of Munitions has been in a position to tell of wonderful achievements in that mighty section of the national war-effort which is under his control, but mingled with his announcements regarding problems solved and production wonderfully expanded there has been at all times an insistent note of solemn warning and an emphasising of the enormous amount of leeway to be made up on account of the enemy's initial superiority in organisation. Mr. Lloyd George takes nothing for granted, and in his speeches as Minister of Munitions even more prominence has been given to problems yet unsolved and to obstacles still existing to a maximum output of munitions than to what has been accomplished. There is 'on this account all the more cause for gratification in the clear and unqualified statement on the subject of munitions he is quoted to-clay as making in a message to Russfa. The time is soon coming, he says, when on both fronts, the Allies will face their enemies under conditions of complete equality as regards munitions, and with a numerical superiority on our.side. This is a momentous announcement, coming as it does from a Minister who probably knows as much as any man living about the relative strength of the Allies and their adversaries in tho factor of munitions, and who has abstained sedulously from the vicious practice of creating a spirit of false optimism by turning a blind eye.on unpleasant facts.

The notable point about Mb. Lloyd . George's latest statement is that it applies to both fronts. It is no surprise to learn that the Western Allies are adequately supplied with munitions; the events of the campaign for some time past have indicated that they enjoy a pronounced superiority over the enemy in this factor. But it is in the highest degree satisfactory to be informed on such authority tKat on the Eastern front, as well as in France and Flanders, th§ Allies will fa-ce their enemies under conditions of complete equality as regards munitions. No one, on lesser authority, could have ventured to preciSct as much. In the fiery trial from which her armies have emerged, warworn but unbeaten, Russia lost heavily, not in men only, but in material. She has in every way a vastly more difficult task in hand in organising her internal resources in the production of munitions than the Western Allies, and her facilities for obtaining supplies from abroad arc crampcd and restricted. It is known, of qonrse, that foreign supplies were pouring into the few available- Russian ports until they were blocked by winter ice, and that even now, in the heart of the northern winter, munitions from America ancl Japan are reaching Russia by way of Port Arthur and Chinese wrts linkgd up with the Xi-ims' Staian railway., But tbft j&tPMsd

be covered is vast, and Russia's ncccls are _ enormous. In view of these conditions a natural apprehension has arisen that Prussia may not be able to play_ more than a limited part in the decisive year of war now opened.

Mn. Lloyd George's brief but pregnant statement will tend to dispel this apprehension. It is, in effect, an assurance that the war on two fronts by which the Germanic Allies are faced will be a war on two fronts in cne fullest sense of the terra; it is an assurance that Russian numbers, and the leaderliko qualities and masterly strategy in which the Russian commanders in this war have seldom been found wanting, will not be neutralised by lack of technical equipment. Equipped as Mn. Lloyd Geojige says she will bo in the decisive struggle, Russia will bo in condition to make a full-powered effort in co-operation with her Allies. This is the best news that has come to hand for many a day. *

_ At time of writing the situation in Macedonia,, where an enemy army of uncertain composition is"said to be massing on the Greek frontier in readiness for an attack upon the Allied lines at Salonika, has not materially developed. At the end of last week thoro was the highly suggestive item of official news that the Allies had blown up important bridges on the Salonika-Constantin-ople railway,- well to the cast of t!.e Vardar line, as if in anticipation of an enemy advance into Greece in that quarter. This, at_the moment, is still the _ most definite news ' in hand; but it is now supplemented by messages of less certain authority describing a heavy concentration by the enemy along a great part of the Greek northern and eastern irontiers. which have a total length, excluding the section marching with Albania, of more than 250 miles Some reports from Rome assert that the enemy army of invasion is in three main divisions, a German contingent having its centre at Monasfcir, in south-western S-jrt'ia while the Bulgarians are centred on Doiran, 75 miles east of Monastir, and about eight, miles east of the Vardar railway, and a hundred thousand lurks aro assembled in Bulgaria near the eastern extremity of Greece. The Greek 'frontier in this latter region is 110 miles east of the Vardar. The aggregate strength of the Bulgar-Gcrman force is estimated at a,quarter of a million. With this it is stated that the Bulgarians have opened a violent bombardment in the Doiran zone, to which the Allies aro .replying vigorously This would imply that the Allies' plans still contemplate an attempt to hold i • ? nc Py Greek frontier, which is somewhat improbable. Against this unconfirmed report is to be set not only the fact that the Allies have established strong lines much nearer to Salonika, but the official announcement of the demolition of the railway bridge at Kilindir, about six miles south of. Doiran. Engaging the enemy in the Doiran zone, the Allies would presumably be fighting ahead of the gap they have themselves made in the railway at Kilindir, and it is quite certain that they will do nothing so foolish. The only doubt existing rests on the fact that "Doiran zone is not a very explicit term. It is conceivable that the Allies, having safeguarded their,flank bv blowing up the bridge at Kilindir, may be engaging the Bulgarians on the Vardar line, further west.

The reports which have been touched, upon are, however, to some extent in conflict with news transmitted by the Salonika correspondent of the Italian newspaper Goriiere Delia Sera. The general opinion he states, is that an enemy attack is not imminent. He makes no mention of a German concentration at Monasfcir, and states that the force of 200,000 men concentrated on the Vardar line includes only a small detachment of Germans, though Germany has sent abundance of guns. Again, as regards the Turkish force in the east, instead of estimating its strength at 100,000 men, he states that it consists of considerably less than half that numbertwo Turkish divisions and these badly equipped. There is thus no evidence at the moment that the enemy has opened an attack, and considerable uncertainty exists as to the composition of the army he has assembled, but what evidence there is suggests that it consists chiefly of Bulgarians. An interesting but perhaps not very authoritative report from Athens declares that within a fortnight (from January 15), the lintente will have ,350,000 troops in Macedonia. Unless this means that the Serbian Army is being transported to Salonika—a not impossible development—it probably -runs somewhat ahead of the facts.

Practically the only question now open where Montenegro is concerned is whether her small but gallant army is to capitulate where it stands or to retreat into Albania, leaving to the invader for the time being a country which it is no longer possible to defend. It is not even certain that a line of retreat is open and the suggestion that Montenegro may conclude a separate peace therefore raises a practical possibility which must be faced. The suggestion is reinforced by news that Austria has proposed an armistice to Montenegro with a view to peace negotiations. , Nothing is to be gained by speculations as to the policy of tho Allies in leaving Montenegro to her fate. No adequate explanation or justification of such a policy is visible, but Italy in which country the event of Montenegro's _ downfall seems to havo been received with feelings almost of stupe faction, evidently has a special responsibility in the matter. Deeply as it must be regretted that the •heroic Montenegrins were not adequately assisted, the effect of their defeat upon the Balkan campaign at large may not be great. Though it would surely have paid the Allies handsomely to so aid tho, Montenegrins as to enable them'to drive the Austrians out of Cattaro, land operations on the Adriatic seaboard of the Balkans must of necessity stand second in importance to the operations based on Salonika. There are much better prospects also of the Russians developing an effective offensive through Rumania or from tho Black Sea coast than of any such enterprise being developed from the coasts of Albania and Montenegro. Salonika is in touch with the main military highways through the Balkans, and the Russians, if they enter the campaign in necessary force, can rely upon reasonably good communications. Tho Adriatic coast, on tne other hand, is separated by many miles of difficult mountain country from tho nearest railways and passable roads.

UKP9UBTSW.Y the fats of Monteaegw is a tragedy, and it is difficult

to see why it should not have been averted, but the chicf apparent gain to thcAustrians is secure possession of their naval port of Cattaro, and this advantage is less important than it would otherwise have been if the Allies intend to strictly limit thsir operations on the Adriatic seaboard.

Satisfactory evidence is given today that the Austriaus are by no means it all their own way in the Adriatic." French submarines have been unfortunate in this sea, and one or two have been lost, but it is now reported that a French submarine has sunk, an Austrian scout _ cruiser of the Novara type, that is to say, a fast light ciliiser of recent construction, somewhat resembling the Aret'husa, which has earned fame in the British Navy by her deeds in German coastal waters and at the Dardanelles. Ships of this type are exceptionally qualified to deal with submarines or evade their attack, and the sinking of the Austrian cruiser is therefore to bo classed as a remarkably fine achievement.

A new development in the Near East is indicated in a report that lurkish troops have entered Kermanshah in Persia. This place is 100 miles inside the Persian frontier from Mesopotamia, and the Turkish aim, no doubt, is to stir up disaffection and possibly to attack tho communications of the Russian expedition which has penetrated the territory to the east, and much further south, and' irom recent reports appears to be in a fair way to suppress the revolt of the bwodish-officered Persian gendarmerie. The position as a whole is obscure, however, and at the moment no particulars are given of the strength of the Turkish force which is said to have entered Persia. The mere fact that it has penetrated so far beyond the frontier' counts for little. Except where it is garrisoned or occupied by the Russians, Persia is in a weak and almost defenceless state. « * » « Tee story „of the Scottish liner, Clan Macfarlane, which was torpedoed by an enemy submarine in the Mediterannean about three weeks ago, is now told in some detail, and it demands particular attention. It is likely that when the day of reckoning comes and the enemy is called to account for the crimes committed by his submarines, the case of the Clan Macfarlane will be singled out as representative. This ship was spared some of the worst atrocities which nave set a brand of infamy upon the enemy submarines. Her people were not shelled as they left the ship nor in the boats, but it is r.one the less true that a large majority of their number were murdered. This tragedy of the 6ea lays clear emphasis upon the fact that a submarine is incapable of acting as a commerce-destroy-lEfJ cruiser on the high seas without flagrantly violating the laws of war. It is shown in the first place that the Clan Macfarlane was torpedoed without warning, though the attacker did not know her name or nationality until these particulars had been obtained from vthe crew of the stricken ship as they were leaving her. Haying doae this foul deed, the submarine left seventy-four men afloat in small boats in heavy weather. The sequel is that twentv-four were rescued after eight days of agony and exposure. All the rest | perished, and they were as obviously murdered as if they had been killed by shell-fire on the deck of their ship. Under the laws of war the lives of non-combatants manning a prize are sacred and responsibility for preserving their lives is ;imposed upon the captor. This point was made and strongly emphasised in one of the long series of American Notes to Germany on the subject of the submarine campaign. It may be revived again now that so telling an example has been afforded of the criminality of the campaign even under conditions which Germany and Austria no doubt regard as answering all dictates of humanity. * • * t

C)ne of the rumours that has been going the rounds about Lord Kitcheiter is disposed of % the official announcement that Lord Chelmsford succeeds Lord Hardinge as Viceroy of India. Whether or not he contemplates entering any new sphere of activity, the War Minister is' not going to India. There remams the suggestion that he may assume personal _ direction of military operations in the Mediterranean. This from the outset has seemed less improbable than that he would go to India, as Viceroy. His appointment in. the latter capacity would have been understandable only on the assumption that political unrest in that country, caused by German machinations * and otherwise, was likely to spread and assume dangerous proportions. Military operations in the Mediterranean theatres, on the other hand, constitute a vitally important though subsidiary scction of the war, and Lord Kitchener'is peculiarly fitted by- training and experience to deal with tho problems involved. His continued presence at the Imperial Headquarters, however, will not prevent his bringing to bear upon the development of the Mediterranean campaigns his intimate knowledge of, Near Eastern _ conditions and affairs, and there is no present reason for supposing that he will resign even more important duties to concentrate wholly upon the direction of these campaigns.