PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2647, 18 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

In a reasonable view, some of the stories at present current about offensive action contemplated by tho Germans and' their Allies in the near future must be set down as mere rumours. Apart from the Near East, whero an Austro-German advance into Greece' and a TurcoGerman attack upon the Suez "Canal are said to be in prospect, there are predictions to-day of offensive action by the enemy in both the main theatres. Reports are afloat in Holland that Germany is preparing for a general attack on the Western front,' and other messages assert that the enemy is about to resume the offensive on tho Dvinsk front, in tho Baltic Provinces, and also in Galicia. There is not the slightest prospect of all these widely-divergent operations being undertaken by tho enemy simultaneously, or anything like simultaneously, and the circulation of such i reports may bo taken as being designed to make the real intentions of the enemy as uncertain as possible, The Germans have every reason to seek to,improve their position in each one of the regions mentioned,. but their ability to do so is obviously not to be measured by their necessity. It is reasonable to regard the existing situation as containing tho elements of a dilemma, which to the Germans must be rather overpowering. They are menaced on a series of widely-extended and widelyseparated fronts, and they cannot well strike on all these fronts for the decisivo victory which would afford them relief; but the penalty of not so striking is to see their enemies massing in ever-growing strength against the day of reckoning that must arrive. The perils of divergent action have been often emphasised in the case of the Allies, but what has been said <Dn the subject applies quit© as closely to tho case of the Germans, to whom the possibility of effective concentration, except in enterprises of limited scope and importance, seems now to be denied. »*■ * # It is not a little interesting, as matters stand, that an authority like the military expert of the Paris Temps should be prepared to regard quite seriously the reports circulating in Holland that Germany is preparing for a general attack on the French front. He accepts, the reports with reseivc, but tninEs them not improbable. Vastly important issues aro raised by tho assumption that predictions of a renewed German offensive in the Western theatre are possibly accurate. The opinion expressed by the military expert of the Temps that the Western Allies are in a position_ to counter any German attack with a decisivo defeat is in consonance with-what is known of the major facts of the war. The chief of these facts is the enormous increase in tho strength of the Allies, relatively to that of tho enemy, since they stemmed the German invasion. They have passed from a condition of marked inferiority in numbers and equipment to one of pronounced superiority, and in these circumstances it is certainly not foolish optimism to believe that Germany is incapable of accomplishing now what she failed to accomplish under vastly more favourable conditions.

This familiar,argument is recitcd only for the sake of emphasising the fact that if Germany again attempts an offensive in the Western theatre it will bo in the nature of the most desperate gamble she has yet ventured in the war. Her present plight docs not admit of half-measures. Risking another offensive in _ the Went, she must ctriko lot decisive bucccbs, knowing that anything less

than decisive success will leave her much nearer to defeat than before her effort was made. This is true above all because Germany, with the end of her resources in sight, cannot afford to fritter away, strength in abortive attacks upon adversaries who have great resources still to draw upon, but another very important factor arises from the conditions of the Western campaign. The triple lino of fortified entrenchments constructed by the Germans on the ground they have held,- with minor exceptions, since the Battle of the Aisne, has become part and parcel of their strength in the Western theatre, and in these lines they have sunk a vast amount of labour and military capital, much of it permanently. •*' * * *

It has taken the Germans a year or more to develop these lines to their present pitch of strength, and obviously no .partial success, entailing an advance from their entrenchments and field fortifications, would be profitable to the Germans' unless it involved some sweeping disaster to the Allied arms. In its 'final result such a partial success would leave them the option of resigning, what they had won, or continuing the struggle under less favourable conditions than at present. The advantages to tho Allies of fighting the Germans in the open instead of on their present front are so great that one military writor at least has mentioned as regrettable the fact that General Joffiie is precluded by the circumstances of tho war from bringing on a manoeuvre battle by moving his armies to tho -rear. The present position seems to be 1 that the Germans have poor prospects of winning even' such a success as would lead to a battle in the open, and if they did their initial success would be likely to lead to their ultimate undoing.

The risks and perils to the Germans of a renewed offensive in the West aro so great as to make it likely that they will prefer (as Mr. Hii/AiiiE Belloc suggests in an 'article quoted to-day) to rely to a great extent upon political action. This no doubt means, amongst other things, continued activity in the Near East, where the brunt of action falls largely on the vassal Statesof Germany. If the desperate decision has been taken to renew the* offensive in the Western theatre, the reason must presumably be that it is considered imperatively necessary to anticipate aggression by the Allies in that region. But whatever the actual position may be, it is olear that if she acts at all in the West otherwise than by continuing her defensive campaign, Germany afford'to act on anything less than a grand scale. Achieving anything | short of a derisive success she would be playing into the hands of the Allies by squandering her strength and affording them new and enlarged opportunities of counter-ag-i gression.

There is some interesting news about the Balkans to-day, But so far as military events are concerned reports in hand leave the position much as it has been already depicted, except as regards a.marked'development in the attack on M'ontenegro. According to a Paris report, the Austrians and Germans ave attacking Montenegro simultaneously from the Austrian territory of Herzegovina on the west, and from Serbia on the east. Between these territories Montenegro juts north in the shape of a wedge. Thrown upon its own resources, the little Country would obviously be in a position of vory considerable peril, even when allowance is made for the fact that the enemy is developing a winter campaign, in mountain country. Montenegro; however, is not' thrown entirely upon its own resources. It is defended not only by its own troops, but by a section of tne Serbian army and the landing of the Italians in Albania, and the, reorganisation in Albania of Serbian field forces said to number in the ajggregate 200,000 men, should have a material bearing on its fortunes in the immediate future. At the moment the enemy is shown by his own reports to have made only limited progress into Montenegro over some sections of thi eastern frontier, and there is no detailed information regarding tho development of the reported attack from Herzegovina.

Meantime tho Allies in Greece have gained a breathing space, and are briskly engaged in improving the defences of Salonika. No attention need be paid to the statement that Salonika has been converted into an impregnable fortress, because there is every reason to believe that such a fortress has yet to be invented, but this does not mean that the Allies' Gspects of holding tho' place are . If current news is to be trusted, the attack which the Allies are preparing to meet ivill bo delivered, if at all, by the Austro-Germans, and not by the Bulgarians. The Bulgarian Minister at Athens is reported to have given the most definite assurances that his compatriots will in no circumstances enter Greek territory. Experience has shown; however, that Bulgarian assurances are worth little. Of the promised Austro-German attack'upon Salonika there is not at present any sign, but if the Austro-German army in the Balkans has .done a tithe of the marching and counter-marching with which it has lately been credited itmust consist of a very tired lot of men. Apart from various movements within the confines of the Balkan Peninsula recent roports Eave told of the transfer of a section of the German force to the Western theatre, and to-day the story comes from Salonika that General GallWliz's armv of GO,OOO men has quitted the Balkans, and is marching to tho Russian front. Prevailing uncertainty as to the actual -whereabouts of the Austrian and German forces in .the Balkans othei than those engaged in attacking Montenegro suggests that, after all thero may bo some truth in tho reported concentration of the Germans in Bulgaria, in read'ines? to meet tho Russian attack which was foretold with every appearance of confidence not long ago, though during the last! few days it has dropped out of notice. The landing of Italian troops in Albania carries a distinct sugges-tion-that Russia may bo about to take a hand in the Balkan campaign. The entry of Italy is a definite assurance that the Allies are developing a concerted campaign in the' Peninsula, and Russia has much greater interests at stake in the Balkans than Italy.

The news from Mesopotamia is distinctly good. General Townshknd's army remains established at Knt-el-Amara, the river port to which it retreated from the vicinity of Bagdad, and the heavily reinforced Turkish army has so far completely failed to make any impiession on the British defence, though it has su£-

fered considerable loss in efforts to compel a further British retreat, Arab reports declare that the Turkish losses in recent- attacks numbered 2000, and while General Townshend cannot confirm this, he stales that the enemy lost fully 1000 men, and that the attacks have not since been renewed. This in conjunction with reports that the British _ are being reinforced . makes it distinctly possible that the first abortive attempt to reach Bagdad may be followed by a second in greater force. Tha British are only 100 miles away from Bagdad as the crow' flies, or aboufi 200 around the windings of the Tigris,; and there is a good road all the way from Ket-el-Amara to Bagdad. Tlio Turks, on the other hand, are at a distinct disadvantage ir. fighting at a distance of some 1400 miles from Constantinople, with indifferent communication. A great part of tho Constantinople-Bagdad railway has yet to be constructed, and mountains and other obstacles have to bo surmounted in the transport of Turkish supplies.