PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2635, 4 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Moke evidence is afforded to-day that developments in the Near East are at length taking a turn favourable to the Allies. To the good news that llussia is taking the offensive in Armeria, on the line ,pf advance from the Caucasus, and in Galicia and Bukowina-, there is now added an announcement bv the Italian Foreign Minister (Baron Sonnino) that Greece has given the Allies the required assurances regarding freedom of action in her territory, and that Italy will speedily assist Serbia. It is not to be supposed that the Allies have passed suddenly from adversity to smiling prosperity in the Balkans and the N,ear East, but there is none the less a transformation in the situation to be noted and emphasised. Until a' day or two ago the uncomfortable suggestion was uppermost that the Allicshad been left a long way behind in the race for supremacy in the Near East. Even at the darkest. hour of the Serbian campaign there was no reason to suppose that the Allies had suffered a decisive defeat in this region, but the danger existed that the enemy, having gained a. preliminary advantage, might be able to develop it, possibly to an important extent, before the Allies could set their forces in motion in effective counter-measures. There is now at least the dawning promise of a much happier state of affairs in the Near East. Hitherto, apart from the attack on the Dardanelles and the invasion of, Mesopotamia, the initiative has rested almost solely with the enemy in the Near East; but if present indications are to be trusted that initiative is now passing to the Allies. It is even truer now than when it was said six weeks &go by the London Spectator that the Germans have three ragged and incomplete schemes on their hands— the scheme for invading France and taking Calais, if_ not Paris; the scheme for destroying the Russian armies, if not for actually occupying Petrograd, Moscow, and Kiev; and, finally, the latest venture in tho Near East. It will be as well to go warilv in: attempting to size up the new situation in tho Near East, but the evidence in hand is positive «is far as it goes, and in its indication that the Allies are at last bringing their weight to bear, it holds out a

pjcmiso that tho enemy may presently have oven less reason to bo satisfied with his Near Eastern venture than with his abortive efforts to reach a decision in tho main theatres. # * » « Perhaps tho most satisfactory individual item in the news to-day is Bauon Sonnino's formal and definite announcement that an undorHtuncling Ims been reached with Gzeeco, The attitude of .Gtar.cc, bo

says, momentarily . gave cause for anxiety, but she has now given the required assurances in harmony with her professions of benevolent neutrality. Made with authority, this statement must be regarded as sweeping away the uneasy stories which have lately been current about U recce. Her past conduct under the leadership of King Uonstantine has not been of a kind to warrant trustful confidence cither in her good faith or in her good feeling towards the Entente, but the assurances of which Baron Sonnino speaks tend to gain solid and permanent value from the general turn of events in the Near East. It is to be supposed that Greece is seeking tho path of safety, and if she feels constrained to definitely cast in her lot with the Allies, to the extent of benevolent; neutrality, at a time when the major part of their task in the Near East still lies ahead of them, she is _ not lilcely to revert to any less friendly attitude as their power develops in deoisive action.

_ Restored confidence in Greece relieves the keen' anxiety lately felt for the Allied army in Macedonia, and ensures its safety and freedom of action. At the same time the Seibian army appears once more as a force to' be reckoned with. It has been bereft of its country for tho time being, but enemy claims that it has been annihilated are met und confuted by.Baron Sonnino's statement that Italy, in concert with the -Allies, will undertake the re-" victualling of the Serbian army and the replenishing of its supplies, and generally ensure its secure concentration until the hour for vengeance strikes. _ Nothing is added, at time of writing, to yesterday's reports of a Russian offensive in Galicia and Bukowina, but the claim that it has drawn German forces away from Serbia and Bulgaria gains support from the reported position in Southern Serbia, It is stated that although the Serbs have evacuated Monastir the Bulgarians have not yet occupied that place, and there is no word, at present, of any attack upop tho Allies further cast. The apparent stay in operations in Southern Serbia goes with more positive indications to strengthen a belief that the enemy is perforce turning from offensive to defensive tactics in the Balkans. Further improvement in the position from the standpoint of the' Entente must no doubt largely depend,_ so far as the immediate future is concerned, upon the action of Russia. Of all the Entente Powers, Russia is most favourably placed to strike at the communications which are vital to the enemv's whole campaign in the Near East. There are no means of knowing how far the Russian concentration on. the Danube has advanced, but even if it is incomplete it constitutes a threat which must largely govern the enemy's plans and the disposition of his forces. There is an indication of tho uneasiness with which he regards the prospect of 'attack from thin quarter in a Berlin wireless message, which describes the concentration in Bessarabia, on tht Ruiranian frontier, as mcrelv bluff, and asserts that only "recruits and schoolboys" are drilling there. If they sincerely held suc& an opinion the Germans would hardly have troubled to employ their official news agency to trumpet it forth to the world at large.

The report that the Russians have taken the offensive in_ Galicia and Eukowina awaits official confirmation at timo of writing, but a Pctrograd communique reports a successful attack upon the enemy in Southern Russia, and though action in this region has hot the same intimate bearing upon the Balkan campaign as an advance into Bukowina in immediate touch with the Rumanian frontier, _it will _ serve a valuable purpose in assisting to deflect enemy forces from Serbia and Bulgaria.

Available news from the Dardanelles affords no very definite indication is to ths extent to which the Turkish defence has benefited by the inflow of German supplies, but the position broadly seems to be unchanged. The Allies report heavy artillery fighting in which they inflicted damage on the Turkish positions, while tho Turks on their part assert that they made a successful attacK upon a portion of the Allied line in the Suvla Bay section. Gr.iek refugees from Constantinople aver [ that Turkish casualties at the Dardanelles have reached a total of 200,000, just about twice the Allied total, but' state also that tne Turks havo not lost ■ their cherished hope of driving the Alliec- into the sea. Their present hopes' are founded upon the actual or prospective acquisition of German heavy guns, but are probably as far as ever from realisation. It may be assumed in any case that there are definite limits to iljo amount of assistance Germany is able and willing to render Turkey at the Dardanelles. One effect of the Austro-German excursion into the Balkans has been to provide the Allies with an alternative to the direct attack upon the Dardanelles, which has proved so costly and laborious. Seeking to stiffen the Turkish defence Germany as a necessary consequence has thrown possession of tho land approach to Constantinople into the arena as a prize of war. She is likely now to find an even more pressing use for guns and munitions in attempting to -etain possession of this land approach than in strengthening the already powerful defences of the Turkish sea fortress. Nothing can be more certain than that a vigorous development of the Allies' campaign in the Balkans will materially improve the position of their forces at the Dardanelles, for if Germany is driven out of the Balkan. Peninsula and Bulgaria brought to submission, the position of Turkey 'will at a stioke be made so hopeless that any considerable expenditure of material at the Dardanelles would represent so much waste.d capital.

There are indications in tho news to-day that tho Germans are in unwvsy expectation of an attack in Flanders, and it cannot be taken for grunted that the expectation is untoundod. It is as nearly as possible certain that the Allies will not ■ attempt to strike for .final and decisive victory in tho West before the spring,_ but.there is ample scope for more limited enterprises against the enemy. Sir John French reports generally of tho British front that cluung the past four clays (from December 2) there has been a heavy bombardment of the enemy's trenches, and_ that strong points and gun positions have been carried. The enemy's reply is described aa Weak. _ This roport is markedly different in* terms from those which deal with intervals of comparative lull on the Western front. It points to vigorous assaults upon the enemy, in which the infantry as well aa tho guns bavo borne a part, and it

would not be surprising if' such a report proved to be the harbinger ol reports of a general battle upon a considerable scale.