PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2611, 5 November 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Few events of importance are reported in any theatre of war at time of writing, and the result is to convey an impression of a lull in operations which is almost certainly delusive' so far as the Near East is concerned. It is now stated that the- Athens message (published yesterday), which alleged that the Bulgarians had captured Monastir, in south-western. Serbia, _ was "premature." The use of this term is significant and a sufficient explanation of its use will be found in such details of the campaign as are available. The Bulgarians have not yet succeeded in driving a wedge across southern Serbia to the western frontier, but they are in the full tide of a movement having that end in view, The message which denies the fall uf Monastir states also that the southern Serbian army is falling

back upon that place and Perlepe, to the north-east—that is to say, tile Serbs are being driven back towards theii western frontier whore it marches with that of southern Albania. Tho Kntenlc force in southeastern Serbia is standing firm and is apparently able to defy attack by the Bulga'rs, but the latter ar°. nevertheless able !o continue theii progress westward, and unless their advanoe is arrested the Serbian northern army will soon be completely isolated from the native and Allied forces in the south. Powerful reinforcements might still turn the scale arid transform the aspect of the campaign in southern Serbia, but the time available for such intervention is running out rapidly. * it » *

Prospects of a continued defensive campaign in southern and middle Serbia seem to depend wholly upon the Entente army being so strengthened within the next few days as to enable it to break and repel the Bulgarian southern invasion, and clear the main railway, and there is no visible assurance that the necessary reinforcements will be provided in time. Mr. Asquith, in his speech reviewing the war, left the matter open, but a more definite announcement is reported to-day by the French Prime Minister. M. Briand's declaration that the Allioswijl not abandon the heroic Serbs, if it means anything at all, means that a strong Entente army is about to enter the Balkan Peninsula. Meantime the situation is tersely summed up in the statement credited to the Serbian Minister of Justice; "If the Allied troops do not come in time Serbia will be no more. 1 ' Some idea of what tie terrible ordeal through which they are passing means to the Serbs and of the spirit in which they are enduring their fiery trials;' is given by tho correspondent of an Italian newspaper who writes of what he has seen and heard. Fighting without a thought of surrender the Serbs arc retreating, not as an army, but as a people. The world has Witnessed no more heroic determination than that of the rulers of Serbia to abandon the whole country to the enemy if no adequate aid is forthcoming and endeavour to find asylum for the remnants of the population, presumably in the mountains of Montenegro and Albania.

If anything could intensify the sense of tragedy awakened by contemplation of Serbia's unhappy fate it is the suggestion of the Minister already quoted that Serbia might have averted the ruin in which she is now encompassed had she been allowed by the Entente to- attack Bulgaria as soon as that country mobilised. M. Yovanovic's contention, however, will scarcely bear examination in the light of, visible facts. Serbia would certainly have been no worse off than she is now if she had forestalled the Bulgarian attack, but that she would have been much better off is exceedingly doubtful. • There is no reason now to doubt the truth of reports of an Austro-German concentration on the northern Serbian frontiers at a time when Bulgaria's intentions were still unknown. It is highly probable that the Austro-Gcrmans w : ere prepared for tho contingency of a Serbian attack on Bulgaria, and would have made instant reply by launching their assault from the north. That Bulgaria at any stage could havo been taken unawares is most unlikely, and an attack.on Bulgaria would probably have brought tho Serbs, though by a different route, to much the same position as they occupy to-day.

Comments by the London Globe indicate that the Allies are believed to have actually effected a landing at the Greek port_ of Kavala, 80 miles east of Salonika as the crow flies, but at time of writing there are no official reports oh the subject. The landing of a force at Kavala would impoy; upon the Bulgarians the necessity of immediately detaching troops to cover the roads leading into the interior, and it would also tosome extent protect tho communications of the Entente army based on Salonika. Until King Constantine fully shows his hand, however, considerable uncertainty must obtain as to the prospects of Entente armies based on Greek ports. A German report that Greek troops fired upon a French force retreating before the Bulgarians is no doubt a case of the wish being father to the thought, but while King Constantine continues to control .the policy of his country the communications of Entente armies based either on Salonika or Kavala. must be regarded as more or less insecure.

.A new complication in introduced into the already complex Near Eastern situation by suggestions that Germany and Turkey have reached some sort of agreement with Persia. Matters arc reported to have already gone so far that Russia has warned tho Persian Government that if the agreement is confirmed the AngloRussian Convention guaranteeing the integrity of Persia will immediately lapse. A chaotic and ill-gov-erned country like Persia represents an ideal field for the kind of diplomacy in which the Germans are adept, and it is not at all unlikely that they have achieved in Persia another diplomatic success. As a military Power Persia is a negligible quantity, but serious dangers would nevertheless attend the domination of tho country by Germany. Apart from the fact that additional scope would be gained for developing the as yet abortive project of inspiring a Holy War, control of Persian territory would give the Turks a new line of attack upon the British forces _ in Mesopotamia. Russia and Britain between them should be able to ward off these danfers and maintain a firm hold upon 'crsia, but if German influence has prevailed to the extent now indicated now, though not heavy, military burdens will be cast upon the Entente. The hope of producing such a result would in itself supply an ample motive for tho German intrigues which Russia is reported to have denounced.

Very welcome but as yet unconfirmed news is supplied by the Salonika, correspondent of the -Petit Parisien. He declares that Eussian troops have already crossed the Danube into Rumania, and that the latter country is maintaining a passive attitude. Some colour is lent to tiie story by an Amsterdam message, which states that German newspapers report the concentration of Eussian troops at Ecni, in Bessarabia. Eeni is on the Eusso-Eu-manian border, about 80 miles from the. Black Sea coast, at the end of a Eussian railway which links up with tlic Rumanian system. Reports of a similar character regarding Eussian action in the Balkans have been transmitted before and have proved in the end to be based on imagina-

tion. Not many days ago, for instance, it was reported that the Russians had effected a landing on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria at Varna, and it is now evident that no such landing was effected. No great weight can therefore bo. attached to the current news while it awaits confirmation or denial, but it need not bs taken for granted that it is untrue. Much hangs upon this matter, for it is pretty certain that if Rumania submits to the passage of Russian troops through her territory she will set her own army in motion against the Austro-Gcr-mans. This for the obvious reason that if she gives Russia land access to Bulgaria only an victory in the war will protect' her from Austro-German vengeance. On. the other hand, if Rumania at this critical stage denies a passage to Russian troops a very strong indication will be given that she has determined to remain neutral or even that she contemplates entering tho Austro-German fold.

Most people will endorse the downright denunciation by the London Daily Chronicle of the NorthCLIFFE Press and the minor politicians who have lately been more than ever assiduous in attempting to popularise the idea that Great Britain's conduct of the war has been marked from first to last by blundering ineptitude and lack of foresight. What these people hope to achieve is known best to themselves, but it is plain enough that they will achieve nothing useful by harping eternally on tho text that whatever has been done has been done badly. There is ample scope for legitimate criticism, and_ the British conduct of the war is in some respects distinctly open to criticism, but the outpourings of the Northcliffe Press and its disr ciples are not so much criticism as a kind of detestable scandal mongering. A sample fof the sweeping generalisations disseminated by tho Northcliffe Press as facts is the statement by the Ohristchurch correspondent of the Daily Mail (cabled to-day) that it is felt in this Dominion that Me. Asquith is temperamentally unfitted to guide Britain through a great war,-but it is recognised that the Government must be trusted. It is absurd to say that any general opinion detrimental to Mr. Asquith or otherwise exists in New Zealand, for the obvious reason that the people of the. Dominion are not in, a position to form suoh a judgment, and are not in possession of tho evidence upon which such a judgment must be based.