THE WHEAT YIELD

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2354, 9 January 1915, Page 8

THE WHEAT YIELD

ESTIMATE OF OUR CROPS OFFICIAL REPORT The Government Statistician (Mr. Malcolm Fraser) has prepared a report for the Government on the needs of our population in braadstuffs and the prospects of our harvest. "Taking the stocks as'ascertained on November 18 last," he.says, "the Government importations during January and February, 1915, and an estimate for the current harvest, wheat stocks in New Zealand will, I estimate, be exhausted by about the end of November. 1915. By about September 8, 1915, stocks would be below those of last November, which were 20 per cent, less than the stocks of November, 1913. It would be inadvisable to allow stocks to get below those of November last, and it will probably, therefore, be necessary to arrange for importations cqming in from about the middle or beginning of September. If all stocks were freelymarketed and purchases did not exceed actual milling requirement 6, the necessity for importations would probably not arise so soon, but with the general knowledge of a comparatively small and poor harvest, there .will no doubt be a tendency to hold stocks hack. "To counteract this tendency it might be advisable for the Government to l import an additional quantity of wheat about the end of February, 1915, so as to make the supply moie plentiful while the new harvest wheat is coming in. There is just a chance that if the first of the new ( wheat was held back there would be an absolute scarcity in some quarters. The stocks at end of Febru- - ory and beginning of March until the new wheat is available will be near the exhaustion point,: and this might be taken advantage of to hold'off the early eupolies of new wheat.." Mr. Fraser adds that in estimating the results of 'the new harvest he has "been guided by the reports'of twentytwo Field Inspectors of the Department of Agriculture, located in the Canterbury, Otago, and Southland district's. Out of the 189,567 acres under wheat in the Dominion, 174,816 acres are in the districts from which these reports have been received, and Mr. Fraser says lieis inclined, therefore, to think that the estimate is not overstating the probable yiekL All the reports predict under average yields, but only one or two estimate failures, The average for the districts reported on, he says, is 25.78 bushels per acre, and allowing 20 bushels per acre for districts not reported on, he estimates the total yield at 4,627,166 bushels. "On January 31," Mr. Fraser says in conclusion, "returns of estimated yields will bo collected from all farmers growing crops, and the results of the collection will be known by the end of February. I suggest thai I be allowed to again report on the position then, as, with these returns in hand I will be better able to estimate more accurately the total harvest yield." Prime Minister's Opinion. The Right Hon. W. F. Massey offered a few comments on the above statement in conversation with a Dominion reporter yesterday: "It is to be remembered that, going by past experience, the coming season in Australia will in all probability be a good one —that is to say, a good growing season," said Mri Massey. "As a rule, a good harvest nearly always follows a dry season, when the harvest has been a failure or a partial failure.. If that turns out to be the ease,j we shall be able to get our supplies from Australia. It must also be remembered that the Australian harvest is about two months in advance of that i of New Zealand, so that wheat from Australia will be available early in De- : comber." ' t