NOTES ON THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2256, 16 September 1914, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR

The outstanding question of the hour is the probable lino of retreat taken by the German forces now retiring under pressure from Franco. The matter is one of tremendous importance, for when we know the route taken we'shall be in a position to judge with greater accuracy of the prospects of tho Allies striking a still heavier blow at the beaten Gorman armies before they reach their first line of defences in their own territory. If, for instance, the Germans are able to retire along tho line of their advance—that* is to say up the Valley of the Sambre and through the heart of Belgium—then in all probabilities the Allies will not have been in a position to strike the vital blow hoped for. If on the other hand their line.. of retreat should be forced in a more southerly direction by the pressure on their northern wing, then we may hope to see further disaster overtake the stricken'armies of the Kaiser. In a retreat through the centre of Belgium tho German army would have good roads and flat and slightly undulating country to traverse. 'If forced to swerve off in a south-easter-ly direction south of the Eiver ibnmbrc, they would be driven into rough and wooded country, where they probably would be compelled to abandon their heavier transport, and where they would bo in danger of being cut to piecos in detachments. We are assuming, of course, that the Allies have maintained touch with tho retreating forces, and have been able to keep them moving fast enough to minimise the possibility of a further serious stand being made on the French sido of the frontier.

Taking the position as disclosed by our cable messages, tho German line of retreat appears to be in a southeasterly direction on the northern.wing,'and in a north-easterly direction on the southern wing. That is to say, the force which was at Amiens, in the north, is .moving east by south towards the Belgium frontier, which it sliould strike at a, point south of the Sambre. The southern wing, which retired from Revigny, is moving in a northeasterly direction, . which should carry it to the Francos-Belgian border somewhere near Gharleville and Meziercs. _ The Cjiown Prince's army, which is retreating from the vicinity of Yerdun, is also moving in a north-easterly direction, and unless it makes a further stand on French territory, may find the most convenient way out through southern Luxemburg. This means that all these forces are moving backwards towards the German frontier in directions .which if persisted in should bring them together in southern Bel•gium. As before mentioned, the country there is for the most part rough and wooded, suitable perhaps for a- temporary stand,- but extremely diffioult for . transport of supplies, ammunition, and guns.

While the position of the Germans is thus seen to be full of possibilities of further disaster, it should not be forgotten that the Allies will be confronted with heavy difficulties in maintaining the pressure necessary to ensure the complete rout of the enemy. The Germans, though beaten, have fought stubbornly at times during their ■ retreat, and they should now have the full help of their reserves. Moreover, the Allies cannot rdsk outstripping their supplies. But when full allowance is made for these things, there appear to be excellent prospects of the Anglo-French force, assistedby the Anglo-Belgian force,._ converting the_ German rotreat into complete disaster.

Russia continues to play her part on a large scale. As the result presumably of the recent great battles around Lemberg (in Galicia) and at Tomaszow (in Russian Poland, fifty miles N.W. of Lemberg) it is now officially announced that the defeat of tho Austro-German troops v was followed by the capture of 180,000 prisoners, hundreds of cannon, thousands of transport wagons, and several aeroplanes. These figures are staggering. On top of them comes news of a further defeat of the Germans near Mlawa. This town is on the frontier of Russian Poland, about 60 miles east of tho point at which the Vistula flows into East Prussia. There has been a lot ot fighting around : this spot. Much earlier in the war a Russian army invaded Prussia near by, and met with success at Soldau and elsewhere until driven back by a stronger force of Germans at Allenstein. Apparently the Russians retreated back across the border, but at the end of last week defeated a German army at Ohorzcle. Now they have followed up that success by a further victory at Mlawa, some 25 miles to the south-west; It should be noted that as_ a result of these successes the Russians arc now again taking tho offensive against Germany.

It has been plain for some time past that ltussiaii operations in East Prussia had been almost at a standstill owing to the tremendous effort that was being made to inflict a crushing blow on the Austrian forces in Galicia. The splendid-success of.

this movement has cleared the way for the advance on Germany at four separate points. Two of these points are in the north, and already the most northerly of these forces has passed Konigsberg, the great German fortress on the Baltic Sea, which is now in a state of siege. The second northern army will probably re-enter East Prussia near tho scene of its recent success at Mlawa. and proceed onco more by way of Soldau. The third army, which will operate further south by way of Posen, will have the shortest road to Berlin;-but it is the Fourth Army, that which' has been operating so successfully in north-west Galicia, which is to moye in strongest force on the German capital. This, army will continue its advance through Austria, presumably past Cracow, and then through Silesia, making its way in a north-west direction. Assuming that it will now meet with little opposition from the Austrians.' it should make more rapid progress than the other armies, which have greater natural obstacles to overcome. The Russian advance must necessarily be slow, but in Galicia it Has given abundant evidence that its movements, if slow, are convincingly thorough.

A Factor, which has been relied on by the Allies in the' present war is the ruin to GermanWs trade and industry which must follow on a prolonged struggle. Already the German Empire is feeling the pinch, and people of all classes,aro suffering in various ways._ In this connection it is worth noting that prior to Germany joining _in tie struggle the German Socialists," who are a strong body, made powerful efforts to prevent war. They held mass meetings throughout the principal cities of Germany, and on numerous occasions came into conflict with the war party's supporters. The Berlin correspondent of the-London Morning Post, in the course of a message dated July 30, made special reference to the attitude of the Socialists, and his statement of the position is worth reproducing:

Socialist protests against war, he wrote, continue. Last night Hiere were Socialist mass meetings at Dresden, Leipzig, Cologne, Hamburg, Jena, Lubeck, Bremen, Nuremberg, Stuttgart. Brunswick, and a dozen other cities. There were nineteen meetings in Hamburg, where the party is especially strong. At Cologne a crowd of ten thousand persons on leaving a meeting came into collision with, the police, and there were many arrests. At other' places there were affrays between Tiacialists and patriotic demonstrators. The outbreak of hostilities may have served to silence the German Socialists, and in many cases no'doubt the majority of them are to : day bearing arms in defence of their country. But with the passage of time, when the first hot fever of the .war spirit has spent itself, and the people aro weighed down with the increasing burden of suffering that is already making itself felt, then the anti-war party may -be a decisive factor in swaying public feeling in Germany, and in 'hastening the close of the struggle:

"With the first shock of the -.war over, with financial facilities restored, there is no adequate reason why the ordinary life of the community should not go on." This statement is put forward in a manifesto which has beefl issued by the Canterbury Employers' Association, urging the people of New Zealand to keep the industries and business of the country runnine: as usual. This is sound aduce. To-tell the people of Germany or Belgium to proceed with their buying and selling in the ordinary way would be mockery a.t the present time; but the British Empire is so fortunately situated that its trade and commerce have not been seriously dislocated. A certain amount of disorganisation was inevitable, tint measures have been taken to reduce this to a minimum. It is really wonderful that in the midst of a great war, in which the Empiro is fighting against one of the greatest naval and .military Powers in the. world, all our ports are open, the risks of our shipping are not much greater than in times of pea.ee, our food supply is secure, and our industries can do kept going. Sea-, power has placed us in this splendid position. It remains with the British public to take full advantage of their good fortune, and as far as possible to live their ordinary lives. "Buy freely; pay promptly,'" is certainly a good motto for ,the present crisis. ■; Confidence begets confidence, and by resuming our normal business methods we will help to keep our people employed, and avert depression and distress. We must not only think of'ourselves, but also think Imperially just now. The trade of -the Empiro must be kept as active as possible, in order to minimise the effect of the cost of the war. All the orders which wore formerly sent to Germany must pro to Britain, and remain there. _ We. might well accept the advice given bv the British Trade Commissioner (Mr,. WickH.ui) in his address at' the New Zealand Club's luncheon yesterday, and resolve in future to start with the I view that all the goods .wo require can be- manufactured in Great Britain.