The Dominion. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 1914. 1870 AND 1914

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2256, 16 September 1914, Page 4

The Dominion. WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 1914. 1870 AND 1914

The year 1870 is regarded by the'l vast majority of Germans ■as the most glorious year in the history ot modern Germany, but it is quite possible that the impartial historian of the future in pronouncing'judgment on tho events of the last half-cen-tury, will see a very real connection between tho triumph of 1870 and the disaster of 1914. Tho close of ,the present war is not yet in sight, yet if,- as tho London Times states, wo can now "safely say that ihe.greatest battle in history has been fought and won"—and won by the Alliesthen it is no exaggeration to speak of the German disaster of 1914.' The Kaiser and his military advisors havo kept their eyes ' too rigidly -fixed upon tho events of tho FrancoPrussian War. They were right in taking'the fullest advantage, of the experience gained on that occasion; but they seem to have forgotten that those events bad lessons lor France as well as for themselves. They have gambled on history repeating itself, and have not rria.do sufficient allowance , _ foi\ tho far-reaching changes which have taken place during fifty of the most fruitful -years in the story of human progress. As a matter of fact, history never exactly repeats itself, and is full of surprises. ' _ It is always unsafe to deal with a situation in" which the human factor is an important element as though it were a mathematical problem. When the present war opened, the war party in Germany were obsessed with the idea that the performances of 1870 could and would be repeated in 1914. A spirit of confidence, if based upon sound knowledge and readiness for emergencies, is a valuable national asset; but mere ■ cocksureness is liable to land a nation in serious disaster. It is a great mistake for a country to overrate its own strength and to underrate that of- the enemy. In 1870 France entered upon the conflict with' Gerniany in a spirit of wild enthusiasm, and with the full-, est expectancy of an easy victory. It proved to be the valour of ignorance, and it resulted in a catastrophe.

In the very first' month of the conflict (so one authority tells us) there had been a terrible awakonins to the liard realities of the situation. The Army of the Rhino had "been beaten, and its collapse in the field had sknyn that the military forces of tho Empire, instead of being prepared for war, were hopelessly unready for it. There 'were shortness of iramlfers, deficiency in equipment, utter laclc of information, complete absence of anything Hire intelligent leadership or efficient staff work. i . France may not.have been as well prepared on the present occasion as she* should have- been, but she was certainly more ready for war than in 1870, though she was much less anxious for it.

It is Germany that is now having: the experience of "a terriblo awakening to the hard realities of the situation," and this bitter experience is in ' a large measure due to tho slavish manner in which -she has allowed her ideas to focus themselves on her achievements in the Franco-Prussian war. This tendency is continually making itself felt in all sorts of ways. A cablegram which we publish in another column tells us; for instance, that the German Press, in appealing to the public to subscribe £50,000,000 towards an unlimited • war loan, declares that "the victories our ■ glorious army have already won justify the hope, as in 1870, that the expenses and burdens of this war will fall upon those who have disturbed the peace of the Gorman Empive." Tho probabilities are, however, that these efforts to revive the glories of 1870 are doomed to' disappointment, for it is stated_ that the people of Berlin are beginning to learn tho true facts regarding recent happenings in France and Belgium. When they discover that "the Germans everywhere are retreating," and that "tho long unbroken prestige of German arms has received an irreparable blow," it will afford them very little satisfaction to know that German troops were able to capture tho French capital some forty-four years ago. The more complete their deception has been the more bitter they _ will feel when the time of disillusionment comes, and that time must now bo close at hand. They arc possibly just beginning to realise that the "expenses and burdens" of the war will probably fall on their own shoulders':-. We arc told that news has already reached Rome of - famine in .Germany, It is stated

that the Government has taken all the vast accumulation of food at Hamburg for the troops; that factories are closed, and that traffic has ceased. These are facts that cannot be concealed from the people, who will soon be thinking that it is about time their great navy, which has been built at enormous cost, should do something to justify itself. "What is the good of it," they will ask, "if in the time of trial it can do nothing to protect our commerce and food supply, or to injure the food supply and oommerce of our enemies 1" The Kaisee's subjects are not likely to get sufficient comfort from past history to reconcile them to the fact that instead of defeating the French, the German armies are themselves.-, being defeated and driven out of France, while t-ho Kussians have inflicted several crushing defeats on Germany's ally, and are embarked on the invasion of Germany from the East. It is also quite possible that before many days have gone by German territory will be invaded on the west as well as on the east. ' All this is, of course most encouraging news for the British public, but it would be a mistake to jump too hastily to the conclusion that the war is practically over. Though Germany's .great armies have been battered and disheartened by their recent experiences in France arid Belgium,, they have not yet been shattered. The war may end soon or it may drag on for many months. It is too early yet to speak with confidence on the point, but whether the struggle be short or long, Germany cannot escape the blow which her arrogant militarism has brought on her.