AN ACCURATE FORECAST

Dominion, Volume 7, Issue 2237, 25 August 1914, Page 7

AN ACCURATE FORECAST

GERMAN ADVANCE THROUGH BELGIUM . AT LILLE IN TWENTY-ONE DAYS! Reference has been made in The Dominion to articles by LieutonantOolonol A. W. Alsager Pollock on the prospects' of a Franco-German campaign, and tho part Britain jvouldl bo called upon to play. Lieutenant-Colonel Pollook, who was "Tho Times" correspondent during the Boer War,, and is now.editor of the "United Service Magazine," made a remarkably accurate forecast of tho course of events in'an article he contributed to tho "Nineteenth Century," three years ago, and it is exceedingly interesting to; recall what he then said. His view was that the Germans would reach Lillo via Belgium about three weeks after mobilisation, and that the decisive conflict would be fought on the Franco-Belgian frontier. In the course of his article, Lieut.-. Colonel Pollock said:—

"Germany, enjoying as she does a' considerable numerical superiority, may be expected to open the war with an attempt to invade France.. There is not space on the Franco-Gorman frontier for the-deployment of the Teutonio forces, and that frontier is, moreover, strongly fortified. In order that she may be enabled to. use the_ numbers at nor. disposal, and also.in order to. turn tihe French linos of'frontier; defence, Germany : will bo. compelled, willingly or unwillingly, to extend the flank or flanks of her host into adjacent territory. An attempt |to turn the French right by way of Switzerland would meet with desperate .resistance from the Swißs, and by the time that the rear of Belfort had been gained by such an operation much time and very many thousands of lives would have been lost. Possibly the Swiss might be 'bought,' but this is' most unlikely. There remains, howover;'on the opposite flank a more fav--durable uW ot alvanoe through Belgium, crossing also, perhaps, on, the extreme right the salient tongue, of Dutch territory on which 'stands,' tho city of. Maestrioht. If the. construction of twenty sidings, with troop platforms', at the little roadside Btation which jtakee its name from the very unimportant village of Dalheim /(between Gladbach and Koermond,: and about twelve miles from the 'Dutch frontier) has not been purposeless, it would seem to indicate an intention to- operate from this direction; ' '■''''• ; i "In a word, it seems justifiable ■ to assume that in case of war with France a portion at least of the German right wing will traverse' Belgium; and probably a part of Holland, with or .without the consent of the _ Governments concerned. Moreover, in. all the circumstances consent is unlikely to be wanting—but of this more anon. ~.' "Writers in the August and September numbers of other Reviews have expressed, conviction that in traversing Belgium the. Germans will cross the Meuse soiith of Namur; and thence advance through the rugged'and thickly wooded Ardennes. Until; comparatively recently the present writer was of; tho same opinion, but after examining carefully, on the spot, the line of the Meuso from Namur to Mozieres,\ he realised the practical impossibility ,or such ; an enterprise being successfully accomplished by . a large.army with the needful rapidity. The Meuse runs riot between,banks,, but points ; that,; afford, useful opportunities for orossing, and.even assuming;the actual passage .itself *fo"haye b'een-eff ebted;tho r ; railwayß;beybnd the "river do not readily' lend themselves to the movenient.or supply, of a great, army. Single lines,, .numerous-.tunuebj erratic direc--tionr-all these things' are serious impediments, aotual or potential. The railways of- tho Ardennes were constructed for. local convenience, not with a view to through traffic. The line; from Givet to Hirzonis an exception as; regards directness, but damage sufficientto render it' useless for many weeks, .could and would be easily, effected by the 1 -French.: ' ~

.' "Why, at any rate, should the Germans deliberately face the difficulties; great or; small, .involved by crossing the'MeUsa in'ihe district of the Ardennes, while an easy country with admir-i able; railways is at their disposal further north? But it be aaid, "Hie fortresses of Liege and Namur block th« way.| This is to some extent true, oh paper; • but there are plenty of- fines which are blocked by. neither placed and, in actual fact it is extremely unlikeli that either would be seriously defended; if at all—for reasons, that will presently" be stated!. Even, however, assuming both Liege and Namurto be held against, the invaders, the fact remains that neither is in a condition to resist a deter-' mined: attack for more than a few days. Tho forts surrounding Liege and Namur. are.quite up to date in thomselves, but the 'clearances' needful to .give a ÜBeful field of fire are wanting. Either-place.would-furnish a strong pivot for the operations of an active defending army,'but neither could long hold out as a besieged place in tho ordinary sense. Supposing the entire strength of the Belgian army to be devoted to.the defence .of Liege and Namur, I am "of opinion that Doth places, if attacked, would, fall within a- fortnight, or couldt; be effectually masked by forces no stronger thaa the garrisons. ' 'x '.-.j'/In the opinion of a very distinguish; ed French -General, communicated by him verbally to the present /writer,- the German right wing will cross the Mouse about and north of Lioge, and' on the twenty-first or twenty-second ; day aftermobilisation t will. be deployed on the French frontier in the neighbourhood of. Lille. But it is-probable enough, that a moderate-sized detached force, say-two army corps, may cross the Meuse about Dinant and Givet, and having traversed the Ardennes, be afterwards disposable to assist the' right wing, or, wheeling to its left, to take part in operations against the French defenders of tho line Yerdun-Toul, who would.meanwhile be violently assailed in front by other troops, Even, however, for a comparatively! small force, tho passage of the 'Meuse. IB no light matter, .Tho' only favourable, feature of such an operation is that .the. bridge at Gjvet. is a verj j massive stoho structure, which, aftier'i Having been blown up by- the French, would furnish a useful - breakwater! to protect a temporary bridge, erected; by the Germans. The river is about i a hundred yards wide, audi comparatively ,rapid; ' i "Finally, assuming the- Germans;, to enter Belgian territory at all, surely, it is reasonable to assume further thap they will scorn half-moasurcs. The neutrality of Belgium would bo as plainly' violated by entry upon a more corner of tho country as by marching through the centre of it. How much, of Belgium is actually traversed by tho Teutonic hosts will depend solely upon the convenience and advantago of the latter, aid both would seem to ho better consulted by a movement north of the line Liegc-Namur. , "The French amy is ready, its staff, is very efficient, and many of the French Generals are men of great ability. ;Tho British army would 60rve to mako good, to a considerable extent the inferiority of numbers, unloss Holland and Belelum' should make common causo with Germany. At worst, tho Anglo-French combination would hato a good sporting chance of victory, while at best tho odds seem slightly in its favour. A point to be borne in mind is that penetration of the lino Verdun-Toul, or Eni-nal-Bolfort, represents in itself a task rot incomparable with-tho Japanese efforts against Port Arthur, mid . that wliilo the 'French linos of dofcuco-offer tremendous obstacles to tho assailant) they have been contrived so as to allow

full liborty for groat counter attacks by the.defenders. The French do nob by any moans contemplate confining themselves to passive dofonco. The •decisive theatre, howovor,' is tlio Franco-Belgian frontier, and thcro must take place a groat, conflict of annicp apon which tho fato or Europe will depend. In this theatre tho British army should bo found, and wo may trust will be. Isolated action in Belgium would be nothing short of insanity. "There is fair reason to hopo- that trithin eighteen days after tho outbreak of war four divisions of our 'Expeditionary Foroo' and tho ca\ airy division would bo. able to tako tho field in Franco, and:tho remaining two divisions about'a fortnight later."

STATUS OF BELLIGERENTS

W HAT THE HAGUE CONVENTION PROVIDES The subjoined regulations under The Hagu6 Convention/ concerning the laws and customs of war on land (No. 4 of 1907), regulate tho etatus of belligerents: —...

1. The laws, rights, and duties of war apply not only to the army), but also to militia and volunteer corps fulfilling all the following conditions : —(1) They iriust be commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;. (2) they must have" a fixed distinctive sign recognisable at a distance; (3) they must carry arms openly; and. (4) they must conduot their operations in accordance with the laws and customs; of war. In countries where militia or volunteer corps constitute the army; or form part of it, they are inoluded under the denomination "army." ••■-,' ■•■ . ; 2. The inhabitants of a territory not Under occupation, who, on the,approach •pf the enemy, spontaneously take up arms to resist tho invading troops without having had tone to organise themselves in accordance with article 1, shall be regarded as belligerents, if they carry arms openly, and if they respeot the laws and customs of war.

3. The armed forces of the belligerents may consist of combatants and', non-' combatants. , In'the case of capture by the enemy, both have the right to be streated as-prisoners of .war. . , Germany, Austrian-Hungary, Japan, Montenegro, Russia, _and Turkey have 'either signed or ratified with reservations the Convention under whioh tho above regulations.have been issued. Tho .members of the regular army ; have, of course,- the protection accorded ,:to lawful belligerents. Members of the imilitia and volunteer; corps, it is seen, ■must-satisfy the four conditions laid rdown. Nations'who have no large standing- armies, or whose standing armies jhave been taken-prisoners or dispersed, fare often driven to the employment of fierilla forces or .irregulars. Tho rancs Tireurs in the Franco-Prussian war acted with great effect The levy' [en masse of the civil population and tho [use by . civilised Powers of coloured [troops,are important matters. The inivader has a right to know definitely | who is taking up arms against him. ,The invaded, on the other hand, has the undoubted right of defending [ hearth and home. The regulation is an attempt to reconcile. their conflicting claims. .. Irregular forces inolude militia; and volunteer corps, even though not forming part of tho regular army under tho conditions above recapitulated. The "distinctive sign'' of irregulars need riot consist of a regular uniform; such a condition, indeed, would render the pro. tection or the regulation entirely nugatory, since one cannot imagine the, facilities; existing in an invaded country en■dblihg compliancewith suoh a condition.' ['"The distinctive sigh' must be a dress i mark clearly distinguishable, and not [;Oiio."-says.Hall ; :; "tliatcan be assumed' ;br dropped at will, such as a mere badge '.'or-.cap." Of course,-in the case of.a ;levy en masse of the, population invaded ;-then ■ for-'the first '•'time", in : that- war' ' regulation 2 provides that, in default of : time 1 to prepare .even the fixed'distinctive sign" aoove referred to, the citizens shall: have: the protection of being regarded as belligerents so long.as they carry arms openly and respect the laws and customs of war. It will;, be- seen that risings in oocupied territory are not within protection of this regulation, and consequently the citizens thus rising could, not claim, if captured, to be treated as prisoners of war. As regards coloured troops, probably England, France, and.Russia are the only European countries who could put any large number in the field. There seems to be no reason why they should not be employed, so tongas they are under proper cUsoiplme,. and commanded ; by officers who are civilised. The French as a matter of faot' employed Turcos in'.the Franco-German war. in 1870. The United States enrolled a negro regiment in the Spanish-American ,war, 1898. The fact that Great Britain did not _ employ coloured troops in South Africa may be asoribed to policv .rather than taken as an admission that, she .was-debarred from making use of them against a civilised Power. The fact of. the South African Republics being related by' blood to her own citizens in South Africa was of itself quite sufficient explanation of her conduct, not to : 6peak of-the racial difficulty thore, serious enough already, but which .would bave been; much intensified • by 'suoh action.

AUSTRALIA'S TRANSPORTS

:. VESSELS DESCRIBED. : According to advices whioh have been received from Sydney, the following steamers will act as transports for the Australian Expeditionary ' Forces :tThe Euripides is the latest addition to the Aberdeen Lino of steamers, and is ;on her maiden journey to Australia. She is a vessel of 15,000 gross register. The Medic is a twin-screw steel steamer of. 12,032 tons, built by Harland and Wolff, in-1899.- She -is. owned by tho -Waite Star Lino. ' The Oevio is owned by tho same company, and is a twin-screw vessel of 8301 tons, built in 1891.

Tho Ascanins is a steel-screw steamer of 10.04& tons, biiilt in. 1916 for tlw> Ocean Steamship Company. . •- . Tho Geelong is a twin-screw steamer of 7951 tons, built in 1901 for the P. and 0. Lino. ■■''■.■.■•'■■■■.

: The Pera is a vessel of .7635 tons, owned by the same company, and built in 1903. The'Hymettus is a single-screw steamer of 4608 tons, owned by the British India Steam. Navigation Company', and built in 100(!. . ' ...-'''■

The Bsrrima is on» of the latest additions to the P. and O. Line fleotof Australian'steamers. She'-was built last year, and is a steamer of 11,120 tons.

The Grantala is a singla-screw steamer of 8655 tons, built in 1903 for the Adelaicle Steamship Company,- and isra'wellknown vessel on the Australian coast.

The Kanowna is a twin-screw steamer of 6M2 tons, owned by the A.U.S.N. Company, And bnilt in 1903 by Donny and Co., of Dumbarton. ! '

The Aorangi is tho Union Company's well-known trader, lately engaged in the San Francisco service till sho was relieved by the Willoohra. She is a vessel of 4286 tons, and was built in 1883.

If was also., announced that the C. and I), liner Hawke's Bay has been ohnrtorod by tho Australian Government fas act as 'a transport. This is incorrect. Tho Hawkn's, Bay arrived at Auckland from London, via Sydney, -yesterday morning for ordors.

A stock sale will be held at Levin'on Friday, August 28, commencing at 11.30 a.m. Messrs. Dalgoty and Co., Ltd., nro tho auctioneers. Tenders are invited for tho purchaso of 15 acres 20 perches of Nalivo land, situated opposito tho Lower Hutt railway station. Full particulars may bo had on application to Mr. Houi Moriaua, Native land oqont 35 Hutt Eoad, l'etone. Daniel Merritt, an American millionaire, who has lived for fifty years as p. hermit, has left his farm, which is situated in tho very ■ middle of the summer colony of Now York millionaires in Winchester County, to bo made into a free cemetery. •Me'Tritt retired! from life after being jilted.