The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 15, 1913. WHAT WILL ULSTER DO?

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1802, 15 July 1913, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, JULY 15, 1913. WHAT WILL ULSTER DO?

Will Ulster fight? If this question had been asked a year or two ago the genoral answer outside of Ulster itself would have been in the negative; but there have , been remarkable happenings since then, and if the same question were put to-day tho majority of those who have watched the development of events in connection with tho Home Rule question would probably give an affirmative reply. The seriousness of the situation is indicated by the facts related in a cablegram published in another column, in which it is stated that 50,000 people marched in procession to the residence of Captain Craig, the Unionist member for Down, and passed a resolution that it was a duty to complete all preparations to resist by force decrees issued by a Nationalist Parliament. Sir Edward Carson delivered a message from Mr. Bonar Law, the Leader of the Unionist party, to the effect that whatever steps I Ulster loyalists might feel compelled to take—constitutional or ultimately unconstitutional—they would have the whole of the Unionists under his leadership behind them. Sir Edward Carson declared that if the Homo Rule Bill was passed the loyalists would set up a provisional Government, and refuse to pay direct taxes. Such statements, coming from responsible statesmen of such standing as Mr. Bonar Law and Sir Edward Carson, are far too serious to be lightly set aside, and when taken in. conjunction with the arming and drilling which have been going on for some time past, a very frave outlook is revealed. Mr. squith's position must be .an extremely unpleasant one. The people of Ulster are quite as determined not to have Home Rule as the Nationalists are to have it, and the Nationalists would sooner not have it at all than have it with Ulster left out. If the Government do not press forward with the Bill, the Nationalists will probably drive the Ministry out of office, and if the Bill becomes law it could only be made effective in. Ulster by sending an army to conquer the country, a course that would cause the downfall of any Ministry that dared to take it. It is unthinkable that any Government could deliberately drive Ulster out of the Union at the point of the bayonet.

In view of these facts it is quite possible that Mr. Asquith may be compelled to agree to a dissolution in order that the people may be given an opportunity of expressing their will'on the Home Rule question. Yet to do this in face of the results of the various by-elections .which have been , held since the last general election would seem to bo almost suicidal. Whichever way the Government turn they are confronted with dangerous possibilities. The Unionists rightly contend that the Government received no mandate at the last election to pass the Homo Rule Bill. They went to the country on the Parliament Bill, and yet they claim to have the authority of the peoplo to dismember tho.

United Kingdom. A great constitutional change of this character cannot safely be entered on unless it can be unmistakably shown that it is desired by a decisive majority of the electors. Kefering to this aspect of the question in a recent speech, Mr. Bonar Law said: I put to the Prime Minister in the Hou.se of Commons this question: "Do you think you havo the right to do it without tho sanction of the electors, and if vou do not, why not have an election and test it? It would be easily done." Under the terms of the Parliament Act, that Act will work just as well after an election as before it. If they have the support of the people of this country they have only to have an election. They will lose nothing; they will not even be delayed. And on what grounds under such circumstances oan they refuse'to appeal to their masters and to ours? Why do they not do it? There is only ono answer. They are not their own masters. The by-elections have shown clearly that tho Government are very materially losing ground in the country, and if the turnover of votes at a general election were in the same proportion the Unionists would have a good working majority in tho House of Commons. A Times correspondent who recently made special inquiries on tho subject states that Ulster is arming and drilling; and signalling and dispatch conveying are highly departs of the military organisation. The club system is being used for military purposes. The number of these local centres of authority and activity was 332 in May last. In March, 1912, it was 251. The membership a year ago was 80,000. It is now 110,000. It is unofficially announced that a volunteer corps, drawn of course from the ranks of the Unionist clubs and Orange societies, is now established in Ulster. It is certainly true that the officials at the Ulster headquarters in Belfast have put the name of every available trained man in Ulster upon their books, and could therefore mobilise such a force at very short notice. A few weeks ago Mr. Walter Long declared that ho knew the gravity of the issue, and speaking with a full >scnse of responsibility he stated that if the Homo Rule Bill was carried he believed that "what would really bo civil war in Ireland" would result. Sir Edward Carson goes even further than Mr. Long, and in concluding a speech to Ulstermen at tho opening of a new hall recently he said: Go on; bo ready; you are our great army; it is on you wo rely. Under what circumstances you will have to oome into action you must leave with us. These are matters which give us grave consideration, but which we cannot and ought not to talk about ill public. You must trust us that we will select the most opportuno methods of, if necessary, taking ovfer our-' selves the wholo government of this confmunity in which we live. I know a great deal of that will 1 involve statutory illegality, but it will also involvo moral righteousness. In the circumstances, 1 say to you, Go on without fear or trembling. Let us do what we believe to be right and leave tho consequences to a higher power. And in declaring this hall open I am glad to think tliat the loyal men of this district will be able to gather here solemnly and seriously to consider not what are tho consequences of their action, but wbat is the righteousness of what they are doing. (Prolonged cheers.) Men of all parties are now convinced that the passing of the Home Rule Bill will give rise tp an extremely dangerous situation, which may. even develop into open rebellion. The Government are quite at the mercy of the Nationalists so far as the retention of office is concerned, but it is inconceivable that in order to avoid offending their allies they would risk plunging the country into bloodshed. They dare not now renounce tho Home Rule Bill, ■■ and the only way out of the desperate and dangerous situation would seem to be a dissolution. The question is, when 1