The Dominion FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 1913. THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1781, 20 June 1913, Page 4

The Dominion FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 1913. THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK

The assertion of the President of tho lleichstag that the Kaiser is "a prince of peace," and that Germany would only draw the sword to defend her moans of existence, does not. appear to have made a very deep impression in France. The above assurance was contained in a cablegram published in The Dominion on Tuesday last, and the very next day it was announced that the French Minister of War (M. Etienne) had made a speech in which he stated that the sudden increaso in the Kaiser's army indicated that Germany had "designs," and that it would bo necessary to adopt " the three years' military service system if Frenchmen did not want to become her vassals and satellites. He even went so far ns to dcclare that the country's safety was at stake. These are very serious words, coming from one occupying the responsible position of Minister for War; and when the French Premier (M. Bartuou) emphasised the gravity of the situation by pledging his word that Russia was making a parallel effort to that being made by France so that both armies would be ready for all eventualities, _it is not surprising that a sensation was created in the Chamber of Deputies. It is quite evident that neither France nor Russia is satisfied that Germany is sincere in her assurances that she desires to live in peace with her neighbours. This aspect of the matter is referred to in a recent book entitled "Problems of Power," by Mr. W. M. Fullerton, in which the following passage occurs: —

Germany must find some means of convincing tlio Powers of the purity of her intentions. She must cense her 61 tiff and her bluster; she must become convinced that 110 nation in tlie world is capable of contemplating an attack on her; she must seek .somfi outlet for that furor teutouicus invoked by a former Minister for War, General von Kincu, in :!■ is Dctmold speech, and she must cease to propagate at home the Nietzscliean forms of mystical and metaphysical Imperialism, that faith in the divine rijrlit of brute force which, inherited from Bismarck, inspires t.lie oratory of her I'an-tierman deputies, her press, and her capricious diplomatic action. It is because of the feeling that

another trial of strength with Germany must come sooner or later that the people of Franco recognise that an increase in the term of military, service from two to three years is essential for the nation's safety. Of course, all political parties are not in favour of the proposal. Indeed, it is meeting with some active opposition among the Socialists, but attempts to stir up an agitation against the Bill in the country seem to have met with very little encouragement. In a speech at Caen early in May, M. Baiithou explained why the Government considered it necessary to strengthen the army. He said that the Balkan War had upset some of the anticipations of international diplomacy; and, though no country was more devoted to peace than France, yet she demanded a peace compatible with honour, not a peace born from fear. To ensure this the country was ready to make the sacrifices necessary for its defence. The Three Years' Service Bill was one of those necessities which the nation, with its instinctive foresight, had already accepted as a duty. M. Baethou went on to say that three years' service was the only way, to enable sufficient training to be given to the cavalry and artillery, to increase the peace establishment of the army, to render its training satisfactory, and to augment its offensive value in case of mobilisation. It is almost inconceivable that any responsible' French statesmen could watch Germany provide for a sudden and very considerable increase in her army without making a move in the same direction; and there is every reason to believe that the vast majority of tho people of France, who aro naturally suspicious of tho intentions of their_ ambitious neighbour, will give their support to any measures that may be necessary to placc their country in a position to repel aggression. The statement by the French Premier that Russia is also strengthening her military forces so that the armies of the two nations may bo ready for all eventualities may be regarded as a very significant indication of the instability of the present international situation in Europe. If German military activity is causing uneasiness in France, there are good reasons for believing that Russia's policy in the ls T ear East is a source of much anxiety to Germany. Russia has for long desired to get control of the Dardanelles in order to secure a free passage to the Mediterranean; and quite recently the Novoe Vremya has been deploring that the Government did not take advantage of the Balkan War, and the complications arising out of ■it, to advance her interests in that direction. Tho fact that Russia is now taking a very active part in settling the differences between the Balkan Allies has already given rise to a fear in Austria that the Balkan Peninsula may practically become a Russian protectorate, and it must be remembered that Germany is also aoncerned in this matter, both as an ally of Austria, and on account of her own interests in South-Eastern Europe. This is probably one of the reasons for the sudden increase in the German Army. It is generally understood that the Tsar himself is sincerely anxious to maintain peace, but there is a very active party in Russia who are desirous of bringing about a war between the Slavs and the Germans, and in which France would also be involved. The ultimate object of this policy is the possession of Constantinople by Russia, and it of course relies largely on the anti-German sentiment in France and the desire to get back AlsaceLorraine. ■ It will be gathered from these facts that Germany has reasonable' cause for anxiety as regards tho future, and, notwithstanding the expressions of peace and goodwill in connection with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Kaiser's accession, it must be admitted that the international outlook in Europe is extremely uncertain.