TRADE REVIEW.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1731, 23 April 1913, Page 4

TRADE REVIEW.

GOOD YEAR FOR THE

DOMINION.

INCREASING EXPORTS.

CAUTION STILL NECESSARY.

REFORM OF FOREIGN TARIFFS,

ADDRESS BY MR. A. E, MABIN,

The amiiinl Innchoon and general meet,iag of members ofithe Wellington Chamfer of Commerce' was held yesterday. The president (Mr. A. E. Jtabin) was in tho clui.ir, and there were about SO members present. Apologies for absence were received from Mr. C. W. .Tones (vice-presi-(>nt) and Mr. F. W. Man)on (member of the council). , PRESIDENT'S ADDRESS. THE STRKGEXCY. .Moving tho adontion .of Hie annual pert (already published), tho president (Mr. A. E. Mabin) said:— "In. reviewing tho past; year there arc reveral features which call for comment, but perhaps tho most striking one is tho ! position of' the money market. J 'or 1 months past the market lias been steadily h'ndi'ng upwards, and various reasons are assigned for tho movement, the most patent being the huge expenditure of tho nations upon defence, tho increasing scarcity of gold owing to the flow of that | metal to Egypt imd India where, it is hoarded, uiul the demands duo to higher pricss nnd'.? increased trade generally. Money is dear and promises to continue so. Wo have felt tho stringency in New Zealand, though it has come about so gradually and at a period wheti our products are doing so well that (he position is not. so acute as was the case in 1808. If .tho position bscamcs no worse than it is to-day, there will bo very little cause for complaint, but the difficulty of obtaining outside capital which is being experienced by the Government; local bodies, ami individuals will probably cause a curtailment of expenditure which wilt bo reflected in trade. That tlie position warrants soma attention is shown by tho fact that the l'ost- Oiliee Savinsw Bank has advanoed its rate for deposits from 3J to' 33 per cent.,- which advance it is believed was made to check withdrawals. This may possibly lead to, the banks putting up their rates. The money stringency is all wo have to fear, and commercial men necessarily aro acting with caution until tho position becomes more settled._ Fortunately .tliern is at last some^indication that au improvement has set in, for tho Governor nnd Court of the Hank of England mhiceil the bank, rote last woek to ■U per cent. If tho political outlook improves, no doubt the rate will be brought ; down another i per cent, presently. j Tho World's Trade. ! "The year 1912 opened with favourable trade prospscts. It gathered strength as the months went by, and when' finally the I irrep.t harvc.sU of Canada, U.S.A., Russia, I India, and Europo were gathered in and tho pooplo of tliuso nations were, provided with a still greater purchasing power, the position of tho trade of the world was. established as ono of groat strength. The United Kingdom enjoyed a year of unexampled prosperity. This was the. ens'?, tooi in spite of unsettled political condi-tunv-i and a bad harvest at llnmc, strikes in the.coal trado and the docks, and ware in Europe in fac!:, in spito of most things which go do hinder good trade. Iron nnd s!a:'i. ndvancad during the year about 30 per cent., textiles 17 per cffll., and raw nnd rmimifnctured articfc similarly. Shipbuilding advanced 10 par cent:, and build?ns' have been called upon to build tonnage to meet theidtmand for the carriage of tho world's commerce at a pacc which they have been quite incapable of .coping with. Fre.ight-o, the world throughout, have consequently advanced 'unprecedsntKlly. One-quarter of tho new year has now gone, and there aro no sil;iis in tho outlook of the'world's trade of any set-back.

The New Zealand Trade. ; "Tho returns of tlio chamber are made lip to Saptembci' 30 in each year, wlucii is tlio end of tho natural produce year ami gives a more correct view of the position. - The exports to that dato amounted to i 20,702,155. The Government returns just-issued show that for tlio year earns ..March 31 last tlio exports were A'.O.oßiMOi, or an incteaso _ o! oil the previous year. March* 31. however, is useless as a point for inaiu:!g comparisons. A late season and waiii. Oi t tonnage in March, 1912, caused a largo amount; of produce, which in normal circumstances would have showily 111 the March quarter of 1012, to be shipped in the June quarter. Thus the nttures .or the later year, if we take March 31 as tlio point, were swollen very considerably at the expense of. the earlier period. Iho actual increase for the year to September 30 was JE794.852. This *6794,882 is in itself satisfactory, but since then we have felt tho full benefit of the good trade obtaining elsewhere, and some of our products 'nave advanced in price to such an extent that if present prices are maintained it is safe to say our exports to September 30 next-bid fai l'to exceed last year's total l>v something over .£1,000,000 or 250,000. The increase is a large one; and will bring tho year up to about Iho level of tho best previous ycuy 1909-1910.

"Wool which provides a third of our total export value has since September shown an advance according to the declared value in the Customs returns of 1.1-sd. per lb. This will enhance tho value of the season's clip by about £1,0(J0,000. Much of thp new season's wool has already been marketed hero or in London at the high prices which have been ruling. A pleasing feature is the steady progress of the New Zealand wool sales. Daring tho live months period, November to jilarch, 27*1,000 bales were sold nt auction and privately in tho Dominion of an approximate value of Jtt,loo,ooo. This is moro than one-half of the total clip. Wellington has become the leading selling centre in New Zealand l'or the Urst time; 51,529 bales were sold at the local sale?, representing, approximately, .£825,000. .One effect of Una progress of the sales has been that tho farmer has been able to see his wool in tho showroom just as it appears to tho buyer. This has had an educational effect, and is bringing about an improvement in the quality and get-up of the clips. Another interesting feature ahead of tho tnul# i.-> the probable olicet of tariff reform in America. Whether the duties on wool arc removed, wholly or in part, tlio sheepfarnier of Aew Zealand stands to gain. Frozen Meat. "Frozen meat to September 30 showed an increase in the previous year of J!2Bo,i:il. Owing to (ho disorganisation caused by tho cessation of work by tho slaughtermen throughout .New Zealand, tlio quantities exported for I lie push six months show considerable _ shortages, which, however, may, with fail weather, bo partly recovered during the remainder of the season. The. prices ruling iu Great Jiritaiu—due, no doubt, to tlio shrinkage referred to-aro very satisfactory, and at the end of the vear the total value should not. be far short, if any, of the previous period. It is interesling to nolo that the trade with the Continent, particularly with Italy and Switzerland, shows expan"£ion, as also that with Vancouver. The Western Staler of America are a bo inquiring for meat in limited quantities. The United Slates are 110 longer competitors for tho British meat trade, and apparently must bo looking oulsido lor supplies. According to 'he brief message published in the newspapers, meal: is to lie placed ill the free list in the new tariiv. If this eventuates Argentine will probably obtain the direct benefit, as tho American Meat Trust is already strongly intrenched there, but New Zealand and Australia, .should not iViil In derive some advantage direct; or indirect. ! Dairy Produce. I Dairv produce has now passed the ! AOOO,OOO mark in tho fxpurls, and is

running clcso to froxen meat for second place on Ihe .lint. The total value exported last year was .fc;t,tt'i,stV2, an increase of .U717,472. T'roni October to March last tlu> declare;! value wns ,E5,20!1,;!75, and as there arf' six mouths of Hie year still In go we may fairly look for butter and choe-e to show nil increase of over .t!3. r ill,llllU on lust year's figures. 'Those of us who are looking for t'ne further expansion of our exports, can safely rely upon dairy produce to contribute its quota. More land every year is Ruins i»lo dairying. Dairy herd's are hiking the place of sheep Hocks which have to go further afield for new pastures. Lands fit for dairying continue to advance, and one is prompted to ask whether there is not. a disposition to overvalue those lands. However, a salutary check may be provided on the upward tendency ijy the stringency of the money market.

"To sum up, the position of our export lines is satisfactory. It would have l»on more satisfnetorv lincl the increases where shown been <|iinutity increases, not price increases, iis the former ore the result of increased productiveness, and may lie considered permanent—the latter are subject to market fluctuations.

Imports—A Word of Warning. "Tho imports to September 30 were . f- 19 G15,2!)1, and we're .£1,099,301 less than our 'exports. Whilst our receipts ibis year will be good we must not overlook the fact that o«r purchasing power is not what it was. The increase in prices in the' Old Wnrld far manufactures and (lie higher rates of freight will enhance the price of the bulk of our imports. J.iiorsI'ore, though on tho one side we may look for increased value ior exports, on the other side imports will also be increased in value even if tlicy only conlinuc in equal volume to last year. The lxisihon continues fo demand the exercise ol care in importations and a ceaseless endeavour to extend the productiveness of the Dominion. ' .. , , „ New Mcrkets? "Whilst we are getting good prices for our exports we ought not to neglect oui opportunities to widen our markets. Arc we doing this? For instance, Great Britain is our chief market. Have, we been too conservative in using London as the chief distributing centre?. There are other larg'3 purls serving vast populations in which our products are little known. This year ambassadors from Hull and Bristol have been loud in the protestation that we would be wise to use those? ports as distributing centres, and that our mar-, kets would, bo extended if we utilised the avenues which aro available.-.through t.hoso ports. Vancouver and San Francisco aro new markets which 'are taking some of o'.ir produce, and can still take more, and the latter, after the revision of the United States tariff, should become still nioro important. We would welcome a lino of reiselsto Japan and the Last as it-would provide another outlet for wool and meat, which is now obtained from Australia. Our Industries. "Whilst I have been stressing the value and impovlaiit'b 'if our exports, 1 do not wish it to be thought that I imder-rate . the importance of our industries, manufacturing l.'or local consumption. Our total export of is comprised under the heads of wool, sheepskins, frusen meat, butter, cheese, tallow, hemp, timber, grain, kauri gum, gold, aiul oilier New Zealand produce. You will sec that there is no heading uitconnected with the direct, product of tho land. Our industrial manufactures do not count in our exports,'but nevertheless we have industries in the.Dominion producing goods which aro CL-nsumed ill the Dominion and are of tho utmost value and .importance in tho cconomy of the Dominion's trade, and I wis a no word of mine to Ire used in deprecation of tho efforts of those .who are building up the industrial progress ot' the State.

Firo Insurance Rates. "Your council during the year pointed out to t.'ao New Zealand Underwriters' Association that although. Wellington has a superior lire brigade service and water supply its area of lowest rates is much smaller in extent than the same area in Christehurch, Auckland, Diuiedin, or Nov. i'lymoutli. We consider we made out a gocd case and one' which demands favourable answer, and I would again ask tho underwriters to consider the representations made to them. Whilst on this question I would like iu refer to the lire losses: in the Dominion. They amounted to ii millions in the past.c-ixht years. T'iio fuuount per head last year was 12s. Id., about tlie world's record, against 10s. 2d. for the United Stalls of America, and Is. -Id. for Europe. Our wooden builitings mu?t be largely responsible tor the heavy 10-:s, but many <jl this iires occur iu ttie bist risks and blocks. Over-insur-ance or full insurance may be a contributory cause in some instances, and is one to a certain extent in the hands of the companies to remedy, though insurance is largely a matter of good faith en tho part of tho assui'td, and insuraiico coinpanics cannr.t always be blamed in eases of over-insurance. The morai hazard in New ikuland may not lie low, but imiuee-m.-nts to carelessness should be avoided. The dire:t monetary loss to the Dominion now is so severe that it behoves all interested to find a remedy,'and the most practicable cue appears to be the- como.iiiborv holding of an inquiry alter every iirc. i'iw slightest marine casualty is followed by all inquiry and an inquiry after each fire would without doubt have a, deterrent effect.

Panama Canal. "The opening of this important undertaking at tho end of this year is certain to have a great and modifying ir.huence on the movements of the world's trade. Vui'ticuliu'ly will this be felt in tae trade between Great Britain and Europe with (ho western coasts of America and the trade between the two coasts of tho wiiolo of America. As for ourselves, what effect is tho opening of this great highway lo have upo;i our trade? .Taking Great Britain as the centre of tho world's commerce, as it is, and wo hope always will be we stand just in the position wlicro it is difficult to decide, except by experience whielr route will prevail. The uist'lr.co Homewards will bo lessened by some 900 miles, and 1900 outwards, but this may he counterbalanced from the ships' point of view by canal dues which, on olio of our lines, would amount to ,£2500, r.nd oossiblo delays in transit through tho canal and the disadvantages of no intermediate trading such as now obtains in ports like Monte Video, Rio do Janeiro, Capo Town, and Ilobarl. The absanco of any suitable coaling station at present will also involve the carrying of coal to the exclusion of cargo. From the passenger point-of view tho voyage through tho canal will bo through more pleasant climatic conditions than tho Capo to Hobart, and New Zealand to Cape Horn runs, and if the shipping companies could find anv interesting stopping places in both the Atlantic and l'acifit Oceans that would provide a break in the otherwise long runs, and somewhat compensate for tho loss of Monte Video, Rio de Janeiro, Cape Town, and Ilobart, the new route would appeal to the travelling public and incidentally help the Dominion. Ik developing a new passenger and tourist trade to the Dominion. For purely ear"o service, however, it seems that the old"route may be able lo hold its own." In Conclusion.

Mr. Mabin concluded his address by congratulating t'lie chamber on having had" a eery good year—sl new members having joined, the largest accession in any one year. Ito thanked the members of the council for loyal support and assistance given him, and eulogised the s.rerelar.v (Mr. 11. I). Vickery) for the efficient manner in which he always discharged his duties. (Applause.) A Free-trade Advocate. Mr. J. 31'I.elian seconded the motion ;to adopt: tin; report. The lowering of the bank rale a! Home, he said, was a very .significant tiling tor the country. 1 lie stringency of money had b;:eu a very i'reafevii in business here for ionie time P'ist and a little relaxing of tie; slrin--I,'ency would assist Hie trade and indtisTries of New Zealand very largely. There wis no doubt, however, that, the Kuropcaii wars had had a grave cljccl on trade, and they all hoped, with Mr. Mabiti, that, the wars would soon bo ended. It was gratifying to hear Unit the exportu were going up, and our imports going down. JTc did not nltach much importance to the decline in imports. but; he wns very glad lo notice I'iat the volume of our exports showed an increase. New Zealand was a country producing mainly wool, meat, butler, chi'".-e, and tiling'? of that class. II was not a manufacturing country. All our manufactures were for ourselves. II had not been pe-sililc lo develop exporting industries and vrrv likely it. would n.il. bo pos-ibl-"" to do so for ;i long time owing

to our high Customs (aril'i and for other reasons. We expected the artisan at Home to buy our fnridstutls. and the onlj way he could do that was by .sending ont, to us his manufactured products. Mo expected the Northampton shoemaker to buv our meat and butter-and it was Hie best meat and butter lie could buy—but. when he wanted to sell to us his shoes wo said: "No fear, per cent, must go on to these, because we want them ourselves." It would lie well to remember that wo were apt to do garni business with the people who trailed witlt us. But Great Britain took all our produce, and wo taxed almost evcryfcliing she sent out to us. So it went on in nianv- other industries besides the manufacture of boots and shoes. America lad found out that the protection lioliey would not wash, and she was tryjiig to adjust her tariff, especially on wool, ticrmanv wns doing the same tiling in regard to meat, and also 1' ranee and Italy woro considering the questionTlu'ss conn Irks had nil 'found that a hij,h tariff was not the glorious thing it \vus looked upon as being here— (applause)— ami he hoped before long to see out. tarilt reduced. Jfe assured the members that the evidence given by their president (.Mr. Mabin) before the Dominion's lio.val Commission had given rise to no misconception in the minds of lite commissioners. Of tilis ho wos assured. They would all agree with Mr. Mabui that there ought to l>e an inquest after cvorv fiu>, for ho believed this procedure wouid have a marked deterrent effect. In a place like New Zealand, where there was so much timber used for building material, our fire losses must be high, but in actual fact it was too high now to bo explained wholly by this circumstance. Need for Big Battalions. lfe had been a little disappointed to notice that the chairman had made no mention in his spcech of the visit of the battleship New Zealand. They had alt had pleasure in teeing tho ship, which was, lie believed, a rziy line example of a I modern battleship, lie hoped sho would give a good account of herself should the time ever come.when she would bo required to do so. They all deplored tho heavy expenditure on armaments, but they must remember that "the Lord is on tho side of the big battalions." No country could exorcise any intluence in the world without big battalion?, and) the British Kmpiro needed a very large navy and a largo army. And the establishment of our territorial force hero was a move in tho right direction. (Applause.) Whilo tho expenditure of a great deal of money every year on armaments was irksome, wo as a nation could not afford to slacken the speed while our neighbours were going on. lie thought the New Zealand Government, which spent a. good deal of money in subsidies to steamship companies for the carriage of mails, should insist upon steamers being put on which could reach a last rate of speed, and which could bo lightly armed and converted into cruisers to protcct our mail routes. This would, he thought, relieve the smaller ships, patrol boats and the like, of tlio navy of a great deal of work, and more money could bo devoted to tho construction of battleships I'or it was obvious that the first serious naval war would be commenced, and probably ended, by a pitched battle, l'-rom tho disposition oi the fleet's of the world it was apparent that u pitched battle would certainly be fought between two naval Powers if ever they went to war.

Tha Wairarapa Incline, Mr. 11. G. ll.ill said ho had l)ccn struck with the fact that tho spcccli had contained mention of nothing of local import. Nothing had been mentioned concerning Wairarapa trade, lor instance. The council had been censured by (lie people of Wairarapa bccauso they had taken, very little interest in the Wairarapa deviation. It was a fact that Auckland'was encroaching into Wairarapa and capturing tho trade there. This had b?en regarded as a bogy, but it was nothing of tho sort, and the question of how to hold the Wairarapa trade should occupy the attention of Wellington business men.

Mr. Mabin drew attention lo a paragraph iir tho annual, report of the chamber, which showed that the council had been active in trying to improve Uit> timetables on the Wairarapa and Manawatu lim.». The- chamber had also asked for tho survey of an alternative route to Masterton, hut tho Government had refused. And they as bushitcs men could scarcely urge 'tho' Government •to spend a great deal of money while money was scarce and difficult to obtain. A ilai: route to Wairarapa would cost .£250,1)00, and a request for it would bo met with tho very sound answer that the money could much better bo spent in the back-blocks in opening up tho country than in improving the present incans of communication. The report was adopted without further discussion.

Election of Council. The election of members of (lie council hail boon conducted this year {or Iho first time by a postal vote, ami tile report of till! scrutineers, Messrs. A. S. Hiss and Ernest W. Hunt, was rr:ul. The report stated that the number of votes recorded in favour of the various candidates as follows:—James Macintosh, 117; W. G. Duthie,. 116; George Wilson, Mi 0. W. Jones, 112; J. 15. M'Ewan, 111; J- G. llarkness, 107; W. B. Lccs, lllli; K. G. Pileher, 111; Vi'.-J- Thompson. 1!0; A. K. Mabin, Sii; F. W. Manlon, 8-i; Thomas Hallinger, ill; T. C. Dav.son, 75; A. Leigh Hunt, (il; J S. Jameson, 58; U. I''. M'Cabe, 55; 11. G. Hill, 40; Robert Hall, .11. The first twelve of these were declared duly elected. ■ Messrs. C. P. I'owlcs and F. W. Haybittle were re-elected auditors. ' The meeting closed with a vote of thanks lo tho president for his address anil for his worl", with the. council, in controlling the ali'airs of tho chamber during the year.