NO WAR THIS YEAR.

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1731, 23 April 1913, Page 8

NO WAR THIS YEAR.

THE "SPECTATOR'S" FORECASI REMARKABLE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN SITUATION. "Thcro can bo no doubt that tli'?re 1J at tho 1 present moment a good deal of uneasiness among thinking men iu England in regard to the European situation," declares tho "Spectator" in a remarkable article which appeared on March 6. "Tho reawakening of France and tho ovidcnco of her power and alertness havo given immense, nay, universal, satisfaction in this country, but that satisfaction is tempered in many cases by an anxious thought. The French, it is argued, aro at this moment very euro of themselves, very full of patriotism and martial ardour, and very certain tliat their Army is in magnificent condition, not only as regards its men, but also as regards 'materiel,' and especially- as regard-; that greatest of all tho mechanic powers of war, artillery. At th® 6amo time France, with all her natural quickness, reccgnises that for tho moment Germany is at a disadvantage. "Austria-Hungary has her legs caught in tho wiro entanglements of the Balkans, and, if tho great war came now, would require help from Germany rather than be able to give lier aid. But if tho light comes with Austria-Hungary thus entangled, can anyone believe that Italy will run the appalling risks involved by adhesion to tho Triple Alliance?. Germany, indeed, may be said to have publicly admitted her condition of disadvantage,' for is not slio at this moment asking her taxpayers to make an unheardof sacrifico in order that slio may remedy that condition, and out of her own popu-. lation create a now Army which, will mako up for tho aid that Austria-Hungary would have given her before tho teeth of the dead Turkish dragon hail grown its crop of armed men iu tho Balkans? "To sum .up, there is a feeliug hero that France may find tho temptation oS.' 'Now or Never' too great for her, and may feel that her national interests demand that tho European struggle shall be fought out this year." To resist this feeling tho "Spectator" points out that there is a large tody of wise, prudent, and influential men in Franco who understand that any a ttempt to carry out "tho 'now or never" .policy" would forfeit tho support probably of Russia. and certainly of Britain. And if Britain were not with France t French communications with Tunis, Algiers, and Morocco might be severed by the German-Austro-Italian fleet and tho French flank turned by a Gorman invasion of French territory. German sea-power is in reality directed as much against Franco as against Britain. For these reasons Franca is not in the Itast likely to provolio war this year, as "sho is not going .to knock her head against a brick wall." Nor, concludes the "Spectator," is Germany likely deliberately to provoke a conflict.