OUR POLICY-WHAT?

Dominion, Volume 6, Issue 1620, 11 December 1912, Page 8

OUR POLICY-WHAT?

TOWARDS THE FLEET, IN THESE DAYS OF DANGER. . NO.l. :- [Co.VTBInUTED.] "Free peoples can escape bolajr ma&torcd by othcr3 by being able to master themselves. ... In the last analysis tho all important factor in national greatness ia national character." Withtin a 6hort space of timo we have witnessed in Europe tho birth of the German Navy as a real force in. the world; its.rapid and steady growth; England's first reply, to this—a reduction in Naval construction—was followed, when found worso than unsuccessful, by heavy additions to the Naval vote, by the withdrawal of battleships from the Pacific, Atlantic, and Mediterranean, and by their concentration in the North Sea; dangerously strained relations between England and Germany over Morocco; and, quite recently, the German Navy brought into a state of instant.readiness for war. During the progress of these events New Zealand offered tho .United Kingdom a Dreadnought. ~ Nearer at homo, we have witnessed the waging of two successful wars by Japan (first a war against China, and next one against Russia), the awakening of Austurlia to tho dangers to which its unoccupied, and undefended territory within reach of an Oriental Naval power are exposed; and the courageous efforts of Australia guided by a Labour Government to meet these dangers by tho encouragement of immigration, by compulsory military training, and by the commeii'tment of a fleet of eight battleship jruirfers, hie., to cost . when complete In Canada the Borden Government has just announced its Naval policy—a reversal of that of its predecessors. In the light of all these events, the time has clearly arrived'when NewjZealand should decide on her own Naval policy. .The present- Government, during the session, avoided' any pronouncement of policy, in order to give.it adequate consideration in this recess. The Minister for Defence is now to visit England, no doubt, among other, things, to confer with the authorities at Home on this matter. It is the object of these articles to consider what need exists for naval preparation, and what New Zealand's policy should be.

The Anglo-German Rivalry. The birth of, the last Union c'f South Africa—was the irome.diate cause of the Anglo-Gerniah rivalry, ivhich now endangers'the security of the whole British Dominions. "It was Germany's impotence to'seize the'opportunity for national expansion afforded by the entanglement of England in the Boer Wai which impressed upon her the final lesson of Napoleon's : career—that, without seapower, her influence could not extend beyond the narrow confines of Europe. The Kaiser, with characteristic flair, expressed his countrymen's instant resolve: "Our future," ho said, 'lies upon the waters." There was no delay. In 1900 the. Keichstag- passed a Navy Bill, which declared bluntly in its preamble that Germany needed, a navy of "such strength that a war even against tho mightiest naval power would involve risks threatening the supremacy of that power." England Weakening—Always Weakening. Everyone, knows how the naval competition thus openly directed againet .Bugland has continued during the twelve years; that have elapsed since then, and how England's margin -of superiority has ■steu'dily diminished during that period. A little consideration will show that it is as certain as anything can be in human affairs that, if England.has to continue the race for supremacy, .unassisted, then Germany will defeat her, and will do so at no distant date! A race in navy building is won by the competitor that can spend the most. All modern improvements in guns, armour, speed; etc., are essential for success in naval warfare whatever may be the skill, the discipline, and courage cf the officers and men. Ability in a nation to find the huge expenditure required to maintain a modern navy is determined by the number of its people and their individual wealth. Because England was able in the past to maintain a supreme navy it is often assumed that she will be able to continue to do so. Such a conclusion overlooks all the essential facts of .the present situation, and the changes that are weakening England relative to her rival. England has now met a competitor for the supremacy of the sea in Germany, which is already much superior in actual population,' and in the. rate of • increase of population, and which is rapidly reducing the margin of wealth now held by the average Englishman over the average German. Resources of the Two Nations Compared. The following table compares the resources of the two nations and also shows how their relative positions will change, with time;— „ , England. Germany. Population in 1910 45,000,000 65,000,0i.-O Increase per year ... .. 400,000 4,200,000 Loss by emigration, per year (1911)....... 270,000 . 26,000 Expenditure on • de- . fence per head...,;...;. 30/3 .. 19/3 English Emigration—A Sinister Aspect. It may be well to, pa use and study the full significance of. the figures given nbovc. We see first that Germany' has nearly half as Vmany "people again as England, added to that; her natural rate of increase is greater,, while her loss by emigration is insignificant. According to some authorities migration is in her favour. ' England loses no less than 270,000 people per year,.or,'in-a little over three years, a population equal to. that of New Zealand. '' • . -. - ' .■■••■ A sinister aspect, of this loss is often overlooked. -The people, leaving her shores are mostly men, who leave behind their natural partners-in life, resulting ultimately in a further lowering, of England 9 -population.- When, wo turn to the cost of defence we see that, in spite of Germany possessing what is universally admitted to be the world's finest army, her military and naval expenditure, etc.; in 1909 was 19s. ■ per head of ■ her population, only two-thirds, of-that (285.) of the United. Kingdom. Thu'sGermanycan. increase her expenditure on her navy by I'd million pounds per year, or more than double.it before individual. Germans wiil boar the same burden, as the' Englishman now carries. Tho Part Which Wealth Plays. The one factor' that has enabled England to maintain her: supremacy— though now a very: narrow' been her greater wealth; She las been wealthier than other European countries since the Napoleonic wars: .Her- success then, ennbled hor later steadily to develop the. industries which aro her chief source ot income. Both France,':and the Mates, which now constitute Germany, have only enioved since. 1871 the undisturbed peace necessary for industrial development. At the beginning of .this century it estimated, that the .'wealth of. an Englishman was equal to. the combined wealth of a Frenchman "id. a German. It is Tidiculous.to suppose that the Mother Country'enn permanently maintain-such a superiority. It would- require the people of the British,lsles to bo a race apart, unequalled in character and physique by other Europeans. : In ■ reality, the Gctman'', in matters of intellect, and m the application of science to industry, have no superiors. That;' the German States should rapidly increase- their wealth relaHvolv to that of 'England was only to bo expected onW'tliey- enjoyed tho advantages of peace and'-un!on. : ; Thus, of the two factors required for the maintenance of the "supremacy.'of--'the'sea, population Mid wealth, England.' compared to her most powerful rival.', is/inferior in minihers, and her ■suporioritv in wealth must necessarily decrease.' "It follows as a necessary consequence that if the ovorsea Dominions leave. England without help, the supremacy of the sea will be wrested from her in the neat future. (To be Continued.)