VISION OF THE FUTURE.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1486, 8 July 1912, Page 2

VISION OF THE FUTURE.

PROBLEMS OF THE PACIFIC. WHAT A UNITED EUTtOPE COULD DO. Some speculations as to tlio future of Hio peoples who live in countries whose shores are washed by the Pacific Ocean are given by the ".Morning Post." it says:— "Among those phenomena the rise- of Japan comes first, the transformation of China next, and the third great change, at least as important as cither of the others, will bo the opening of the Panama Canal, which may take placo next year. "Thero is perliops one transformation greater than any of those and dominating them all, which belongs to the time of men now iu tli« prime of life. The expanse- of tlio Pacific Ocean is so great and the distances by which its shores are separated so wide that until comparatively recently it was the 'estranging sea.' It kept apart the peoplo that dwelt on its opposite shores. It has been navigated for centuries, and has long been known and chnrted. But tho voyage of six thousand miles was too long to make it possible for sailing ships or small steamers to carry inoro than a limited tralKc. With tlic ndvent of the great modern steamships, which are floating palace.? or floating warehouses, and wlricli emulate tho speed of railway trains, tho Pacific has begun to be a highway and to bring, Asia, America! and Australia into communication with one another. The Open Door in China, "The United Statos, having forced open tho doors of Japan, with tho striking results that tho world has seen, liavo set up as a corollary to the Monroo Doctrine the doctrine of the Open Door in China. It is possible that flic combination of these two doctrines, together with the resolve to limit or cxcludo Asiatic immigration, may some day lead to serious disputes between America and Eastern Asia. Tho United States cannot permanently keep their own doors shut and insist on other peoples keeping theirs open without an inconsistency that must' sooner or later ho challenged. Perhaps British Australasia may lie moving towards a similar inconsistency. Tho doetrino of a White Australia has for iU logical counterpart tho exclusion of Australasians from China.and Japan. These aro problems, however, of which the solution is perhaps not to be looked for in tho immediate future.

"For the moment the most absorbing question concerning tho shores of the Pacific is that of the internal development of China. The yeast has been infused from Europo and America, and the ferment now taking place shows how strongly it works. If after a time it should produce expansion, there will be still more stir and change, both in Asia and on the Pacific, l'or a renovated China will liavo to take lo the water, if for no other reason than that Japan has dono so, and that China without a Navy could carry on seaborne trade only with Japan's permission. It will be the first thing to be created by tho Chinese nation when that has como into being.

"Japan is at present by far tlio strongest Power, in nnvul and military resources, in tlio Pacific. Somo day no doubt China will be lier rival, possibly her superior, but that will not bo just vet. The United States, though not highly organised for war, havo immense resources and a population of the greatest energy. The national spirit is there, and is acting to increase the national strength. So soon as tlio Panama Canal has been made- the United States Fleet will bo available at will either in .the Atlantic or the Pacific. There, will then bo a balanco of power in the great ocean. If Australia ami.New Zealand wish to count for much in the scales their best policj will bo to increase their weight by increasing their population, that is lb say, by the utmost possible encouragement of immigration, from Europe.

Australia and New Zealand. "It is natural that Australia and New -Zealand- should.hithqrto- have: relied for their protection upon, the British Navy, or-rather, upon the policy.of.Great Britain as a strong naval Power. But recent changes in tho balance of Europo havo made it necessary for Australia-and New Zealand to study Europe more than used to bo necessary. Thcro has been a general development of naval power in Europe, such that Great Britain, if she is at all times to be ready to defend herself, must keep in European waters a Navy as strong as two or three of the other European navies. While that condition lasts tho British Navy cannot send fighting fleets to tho Pacific For the protection of Australasia or Canada against tho hostility of European Powers that course would not bo nccessaTy. While the British Navy is strong in European waters, no European Power likely to bo hostile to Great Britain can weaken its European forces by sending battleships to the Pacific. Great Britain, therefore, for the present need do no rooro to protect her interests in that ocean than keep there a number of cruisers and such auxiliaries as they need. In cases of serious conflict between Pacific Towers a well directed British policy would find means of asserting tho necessary influence without moving fleets or armies round the globe. "Cruisers and their attendants and auxiliaries Great Britain ought at nil times to havo in every ocean, because in case of war in Europe her merchant ships would Tcquiro their protection nnd perhaps their escort. What Europe Could Do. "The effect of tho present, unhappy divisions of Europe is to render it impracticable for any European Power to act with much effect at a distance from Europe. A united Europe could oven now control thq world, for a United Europo could send to any point a fleet that no extra-European Power could resist and an nvmv that could not bo withstood. But the 'divisions of Europe, which are duo partly to insufficient mutual knowledgo aniong the European nations, and partly to tho absence of a generally accepted common ideal, are tho evidence that European civilisation has not progressed as far as iln exponents sometimes imoginc, A generation ago the historian Banlco used to speak of Christendom, or tho European nations and their offshoots, as a community sharing ideals which they wero bound to communicate to all tho world. There has been plenty of communication but littlo spread of common ideals, and tho unity of Europe, political and social, seems as far off as ever. "The old ideal was the service of mankind. But it can hardly be said to have leavened.the political life of Europo. Tho problem set to every nation of so organising itself as to enable all its citizens to lead the best of human'lives, tho life that consists in exercising their best powers with a moderate sufficiency of material goods, has by no means been solved. Sometimes it looks as though Europe might have to look to the Par East for fresh impulses and new ideals. It seems a strange irony that the opening up of paths through and into the 'Pacific' Ocean should suggest to those who reflect upon (hem new developments of stratejy, new application of "'ls that implv disunion ami strife nniong mankind'."