POLITICAL PROSPECTS

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1378, 2 March 1912, Page 6

POLITICAL PROSPECTS

TH2 KEW MINISTRY. SOME FORECASTS SUMMARISED, WINBING UP THE SESSI6N. . Members of Parliament are fast depart- , lngfrom Wellington, and calm, tinged •witt expectancy, has already succeeded to tho stir and tension which characterised tho dobatesvof the short session just concluded. The only matter of outstanding importance announced yesterday was that tholmits of; the Ministerial, following will assemble in Wellington a fortnight henco to reconstruct' the Cabinet and framo a now" policy. Many of the' forty members w,ho 'voted with the Government on the motion for adjournment declare themselves absolutely in tho dark in regard to the -probable personnel of the new Cabinet, or even as to who will be its leader. To the consideration that the new Cabinet may not possess the confidence of the Honse, a ncmber of Government members ,who were spoken to yesterday seemed 'to be strangely indifferent. It was pointed out to some of them that even a slight internal dissension might mean the return to power of a Cabinet backed by . ''only, a minority of the total votes of the VHouse, but they seemed to be filled .with comfortable, though vague, belief, that Jhe elements of the composite party would toniehow hang together. Their opponents, /it may bo mentioned, do not share this ririew.

IK difficult Task. It 'ia well known that the task of forming a Ministry out of the remains of the Ward party.will bo .& peculiarly difficult one, hut only llhoso who know something of the internal workings of that party can Bee how difficult it must be. If the projected Ministry is to command a majority of the House, it must make a big bid fox Labour support, but it is difficult ,to see;how it can do that without alienat--Bng a'eection of moderate men who have (hitherto followed Sir Josoph Ward. These members.'wduld, not support a Cabinet domih«te'd=by.Mr. Laurenson, Mr. Hanan, Jiiul othor- .Radicals. -Men within tho "Liberal"-party,as at present constituted nay that' there;'are from six to. ten of these Moderates who,would- be prepared to vote against a Ministry committed to a Radical-Socialist policy or dominated by JJadieal-Labour politicians. It, is cjear, therefore, that the Cabinet-makers, will ■bo under a strong temptation to exerciso Jnoro ingenuity than candour, or in other Iwords' to keep two programmes in their flookots, to be produced at discretionone to pacify the Moderate wing and the other to secure tho adhesion of Eadicals and Labour men. There can, however, be no concealment as to tho names of tho (Ministers, once the Cabinet is formed, and it.will.be extremely difficult to preeent a list that will give satisfaction to nil the sections whoso support will be Tequired. There aTo also, of course, many personal ambitions and jealousies ,to be adjusted or soothed, and these are believed to bo at present rather acute.

'Aspirants for Cabinet Rank. All the following' members are understood to to aspirants for Cabinet rank, and to have more or less of the support of their Dartv -.—Hon. T. Mackenzie, Messrs. V. 'H. Heed.'(Bar-'of Islands), A. M. Myers (Auckland East), W. D. S; Macdonald (Bay of Plenty),' G. Laurenison (Lyttelton), T. H. Davcy (Christchurch East), T. K. Sidoy (Dunodin South), and J. A. Hanan (Invcrcargill).- ;;It might he difficult to overlook the. strenuous party seivices of the Senior Whip (Mr. Ell), and ...ambitious., arc also said to be entertained by Mr. George Witty (Eiccarton), but the party does not neem to smile very brightly upon the hopes of these two. It is felt that with either of them, as well as Messrs. Laurenson and Davcy in tho' Cabinet, Cantorbury, faithful though it has been, wfiuld be over-represented. "Mr.'6. W. Russell (Avon) seems to have ojiito dropped out nf the running. It is taken for granted that Sir Joseph Ward will be a sort of consulting engineer, so to speak, to the new Ministry, but how much of his present ascendancy he would retain can scarcely bo conjectured. He might be anything from a sort of Power behind the Throne or Secret Premier without'responsibility, to a, rather ~ unimportant and diminishing force in the dynamics 'of tho party. .• -Meanwhile, :nobqdy" talks of any 3olace'<for. Sir 1 James ■.Carroll, -'Mr. Millar, Mr. E. .M'lvenzie;' or Mr. Bnddo, all of whom, it is understood, are to be "dropped over the sideband it>issaid that one of them at, all events' is-, making wry ■ faces at tho■ bitter fdraugh't.- Mr. Ngata- and Mr. T: Mackenzie (who'is still .talked'of is tho new' leader) are said to bo tho Dnly. two members of tho present Cabinet who will be found in the new one.

Mr. R; M!Nab. Mr. B. M'Nab has been recently in consultation with tho Prime Minister, and it 13 believed that bo may bo looked ■upon by tho "Liberals" as a possible leader of tho "Upper House. Another theory is that Mr. M'Nab may contest the Awarua seat in the qvent of Sir Joseph Ward resigning. A caucus meeting of the RefoTm party was held yesterday morning. A number of important matters wore discussed, the meeting lasting for four hours. It was marked by the utmost unanimity, and sfforded further evidence of the consolidation and unity of the party. .Thai Labour Party, It is understood that the, Labour members will be invited to attend the Govern-, ment caucus which is to bo held a fortnight honce for the purposo of appointing' a now Cabinet, but that tho Labour men may prefer, to hold a separate meeting of their own. Should the Wardists desire to include a Labour member in the new Ministry, tho Labour party may probably insist on choosing for itself which of its members shall bo selected for the honour.: ■ ■ °

Mr. W. A. Veitch spoke guardedly last fvening when- he was questioned as to the fnturo attitude of tho Labour partv. "Wo aro. an independent party," ho said, "and may probably co-operato with tho Liberal clompnt in tho House. We havo not attended any' Liberal caucus. Tho gatherIngyosterdny morning was not a caucus." IThe Labour party, ho added, had not yet como to any formal decision regarding "its future attitude.

Mr. Atmore's Attitude. Defining his political attitude last evening, Mr. H. Afmore, member for Nelson, stated that ho would maintain his position lis an Independent. Asked whether his voto in tho no-confidence division on Tuesday night had been influenced by Sir Joseph Ward's promise to resign, Mr. Atmore replied that ho had.boon influenced mainly by two considerations. Ho thought, in the first place, that tho Opposition had not heeu candid in its criticism of tho frenzied financo of tho Government, bccauso in his view it had made no real resistance to tho borrowing of the last eighteen millions that have boon added to the public debt. Secondly, Mr. Atmoro adheres, in spito of repeated denials by tho (Leader and members of thb Reform party, to the theory that it represents the largo landed interests of tho country, nnd will not countenance that increaso which he desires in tho graduated land tax. Mr. Atmoro stated that ho concurred in many of tho proposals advanced in ' tho Governor's Speech, but Tccopriiiscd that tho bulk of thom could not be embodied in any policy of tho immediate future. Ho indicated radical land reform as the policy dopnrtnro that should first claim attention. Tho'itmount of tho graduated tax, ho considers, should be increased sufficiently to break up all tho large Euronean-owned estates, and ho thinks that this would involvo a substantial increase in tho amount of tho tax. The main features of the Family Settlement, Lands Bill, a deferred-payment, freehold settlement measure, introduced, but not gone on with, in tho Eession of 1911, meet with hi* approval. Asked whether a Government introducing measures such as these would be supported by him on a no-confidence motion, Mr. Atmore replied that it would depend upon the forn taken by tho no-confidence motion. Ho assumed that the reconstructed Ministry, which is to meet the House in June, will be challenged by the Reform

party, font holds that the new Cabinet will not bo answernblo for any past sins, but -will start its career with a clear record.

The Allies Celebrate. At n meeting of Government, Labour, and Independent members held yesterday, morning, tho following resolution, moved by Mr. J. Colvin, and seconded by Dr. Rangihiroa, was carried by acclamation:—"That this meeting of members representative of tho Liberal party, Independent Liberal, and Labour party desires to- tender to tho Right Hon. Sir Joseph Ward its assurance of its hearty appreciation of his distinguished and valuable services as Leader of tho Liberal party, and congratulates him upon tho many Liberal and progressive reforms introduced by him and passed by the Government, which have proved of great bonelit to tho people of tho Dominion. Those assembled also desiro to congratulate Sir. Joseph upon the fact that tho no-confidence motion recently moved by tho Opposition was defeated, and now that tho right hou. gentleman is voluntarily retiring from the leadership, wish to express their great satisfaction at Sir Joseph's intention to continue to assist the Liberal and progresive forces of the Dominion in their common fight against tho Opposition or Conservative party. They are persuaded that tho name of Sir Joseph Ward will' bo recorded in history as ono of tho foremost statesmen and ablest administrators in the Australasian colonies;" Tho motion was spoken to by Messrs. Robertson, Veitch, T. W. Rhodes, Forbes, Coatcs, Hindmarsh, Payne, M'Callum, G. W. Russell, Parata, and Atmore, by whom it was cordially endorsed. Tho gathering broke un with cheers for Sir Joseph and Lady Ward. It is reported that everyone of the forty members who voted against tho amendment of the Opposition in-the House on Thursday night was either present or accounted for, and that the gathering was most enthusiastic.

Mr. Robertson Will Explain, Mr. J. Robertson, the Labour member for Otiki, intends to address meetings in various parts of his electorate and explain why ho broke his election pledge to vote against the Ward Administration.

Session Statistics. The session'extended over fifteen 1 days, the number of days on which, tho House sat being nine. The. hours in which it was in session totalled 53 hours 52 minutes, an nrerage of nearly eix hours per day. The last day of the session lasted 9 hours 27 minutes.-

Absolute Independence. The fortnightly meeting of the Auckland Labour party was held on Wednesday. It was decided to ask the approaching conference to reaffirm tho aosolute independence of Labour, and the necessity of avoiding any alliance with any other political party.

THE REFORM PARTY. NEVEE MOEE UNITED. (By TeleeraDh— Suecial CorresnondenM Auckland, March 1. At a large mooting of tho Auckland branch of the Political Eeform Leaguo this afternoon the following resolution was unanimously and enthusiastically carried:—"That, in view of statements recently published in certain papers supporting the Government, this meeting expresses its most cordial loyalty to Mr. W. F. Massey, M.P., and its utmost confidence in him as Leader of tho party; that, as far as this executive is aware, the only suggestion of any change in the leadership emanates from Mr. Massey's political opponents, who fear his strength, and who recognise that his statesmanlike attributes political integrity and personal popularity will carry him to that victory temporarily delayed by the breaking of pledges given by Messrs. Kobertson and Payne." _ . A

It was also decided to issuo the followng statement:—"The political Reform party was never more united than it is to-day. It is thoroughly loyal to. its great leader (Mr. W. IV Massey) and regards him as pre-eminently fitted for, and deserving of, the highest honour in the Eower of, the people of New Zealand to estow.'" Should a dissolution becomo necessary, the party will welcome it in the confident knowledge that-the electors of the Dominion have awakened to a realisation of their true interests, and that they will return the party's candidates with Mr. Massey at their head by overwhelming majorities."

AN EXTRAORDINARY SITUATION. (From Our Special Correspondent.) v Auckland, March 1. Tho prorogation of Parliament prior to the announcement of tho personnel of the new Cabinet has been received with surprise and indignatioa in Auckland, and the fact that the Labour representatives .voted for this course has told heavily against the Labour cause here. Even Ministerial apologists aro hard put to it to explain away this flouting oj the rights of the people. ■ The "Herald" this morning says: For four months the administration of the Dominion, with all its great publio interests and important services, : is to be left in'.tho hands of a Cabinet whose permanent composition 1 is unknown. No excuse can bo offered for such a proposal. Every potential member of a reconstructed Cabinet is in Wellington, and Sir J. Ward had the fullest opportunity to learn what steps should boitakon.to placate his dissatisfied Parliamentary supporters, and whether a Government could be got together which would hold its own on another division. Tho situation ib an extraordinary one, and justifies the criticism that the Government is clinging to office in defiance of sound precedents, and without regard to the constitutional maxim that tho Advisers of tho Crown must have the support and confidenco of Parlir-.ment, for it is quite possible, and even probable, • that when the Cabinet is reconstructed within a few honTS or a few wcoks.it may be one which could not survive a single division.