The Dominion. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1912. GERMAN POLITICS.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1359, 9 February 1912, Page 4

The Dominion. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1912. GERMAN POLITICS.

It has been understood for some time that the German Government intended to place proposals for increased naval and military expenditure before the new Reichstag, if the state of parties was considered favourable. The Reichstag has now assembled, and the Kaiser, in opening it, has said: "My constant duty is to strengthen the forces on sea and land. Bills are therefore being prepared for an increased expenditure." The question as to what these proposals will be has already been the subject of a good deal of speculation. Under the present Navy Law six Dreadnought cruisers must be laid down during the next six years, and it is believed that the object of the Supplementary Bill is to cause all the six to be laid down in three years, instead of six. .• The natural sequd would be that further constructions would be authorised in 19M to keep the yards employed. There are extremists who cry out for a much more ambitious programme, but if we may rely upon an apparently well-informed contributor to the Spectator, the scheme just outlined is almost certainly what the Marine Department hopes to be able to place before the Reichstag. The extra demands to be made for the Army have been described by the Conservative press in Germany as "fairly considerable." How will such a policy be regarded by the different political parties! This is not a simple question of Government and Opposition, for in the German system there is no Cabinet responsible to Parliament and no Government party. On this particular issue the two parties on which the Government has relied do not agree. Even the Conservatives, of whom the -Imperial Chancellor himself is one, are not as a whole enthusiastic supporters of the Big Navy idea. They fear that it will involve direct taxation, such as the death duties, which they successfully resisted in 1909. Still, they are pledged to support a Supplementary Naval Bill, and their leader, Her'k von Heydebrand, has said that the necessary sacrifices will be made. They would, of course, prefer that the money should come from further protective duties,, which would favour the agrarian interests. The Centre party, which, with the Conservatives, forms the "Blue Black Block," is against fresh taxation and has declared emphatically against any new Navy Bill, but it'is thought that in certain eventualities it might be won over. Chief of the parties against the Government, is the Socialist party, which has disarmament on its programme. The Radicals are with thorn on this issue, but the National Liberals, who are but loosely allied with them in general, are strongly against them on the question of armaments. Indeed, the NaI lional Liberal party appears lo be the only one which is really enthusiastic for a Big Navy. It is closely allied with the shipbuilding interests. It strongly demands the imposition of the death duties, and is equally opposed to agrarian prol.eetion._ The position na to Iho prospective Naval Btllj thuxcioxc, works

out as follows:—For the Bill: Conservatives, i)G; National Liberals. •M; and (probably) smaller parlies, 'IS; total, MB. Against the Bill: Socialists, 110; liadicals, -1G; Centre, 03; total, 249. Majority against the Bill, 101. If, however, the Centre can lie won over in a body, the situation will be reversed, and there will then be 241 votes for the Bill, and lot! against it. The Imperial Chancellor has a difficult tnsk before him, for he must not only overcome the Centre's objection to' the naval programme; he must also d'vise means for retaining the support of the National Liberals, who hold the balance between the Centre-Conser-vative coalition and the Opposition forces. The elections were called by some Gorman newspapers the "English" elections, but what their result will be to England is not yet clear.