OTA'S CIVIL WAR.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1262, 18 October 1911, Page 7

OTA'S CIVIL WAR.

YUAN-SHIH.KAI'S NEW WST. MODERN-DRILLED TROOPS DISARMED. FINANCIAL TROUBLES. By Telecraph-PrcßS Association-Copyright (Rec. October 18, 0.15 a.m.) Peking, October 17.

Tho Government lias advanced tho banks an abundance of silver to meet present requirements. On tho other hand it is feared that China will have difficulty in meeting tho November instalment of tho Boxer indemnity, as Wuchang is the chief collecting centre of the indemnity payments from a large portion of the Empire. The Viceroy at Nanking has disarmed tho ninth division of tho modern army, supplying its place with provincial troops. This is the second instance of disarmament of modern troops within two years and explains the Throne's anxiety concerning tho trustworthiness of tho modern drilled Croops Six transports havo been chartered at Shanghai to convey troops up the Yang-tsc-kiang. Sorao of tho reinforcement's are from Mukden in Manchuria. It is officially reported that Yuan-Shih-Kai has accepted the Vice-Royalty of Ilupeh. Keuter's correspondent says the acceptance has caused a feeling of optimism, as it officially believed that Yiwn-Shih-Kai's mere name will terrify tho revolutionists. An Imperial Edict orders tho distribution of rice to tho poor and t'ho opening of the Peking granaries for tho salo of cheap grain. Ninety marines aro reinforcing the American Legation Guard at Peking. Yenchang's headquarters aro seventy miles northwards of Hankau. BRITISH PRECAUTIONS. PRICE OF EICE GOES TJP. Peking, October ID. In view of possible severe fighting, the British Consul has ordorcd British residents and missionaries to leave Wuchang, Hankau, Hangyang, and Kwang-si. Owing to the scarcity of dollars and continuous runs on tho native banks, the Peking Minister for Finance will issuo a million taels to relieve the stringency. Tho price of rice has risen 20 per cent. YOUNG CHINA AND YOUNG TURKEY. (Rec. October 18, 0.15 a.m.) London, October 17. "The Times" hopes tlmt Young China will not imitate the Young Turks by establishing anything like a Committee of Union and Progress. PROSPECTS OF THE REVOLT. CAN THE CHINESE COMBINE SUCCESSFULLY? The recent involution in Portugal, wrote the liov. Charles Bone, in tho Sew York "Independent" in Juiy has suggested to nvr.ny of tho Europeans and Americans ivho have residid during many years in the Far Uast, (ho pertinent question as to tho probability of a revolution in China. Tho suddenness of the uprising and tho swiftness with which it was consummated havo furnished au object lesson to tho progressive Chinese, who havo brooded long over the humiliations to which their country has been subjected at the hands of foreigners, and to Ihe wrongs the people have lo submit to at thi< hands of their own corrupt officials. The immediato acquiescence of the Portujrueeo in Macao, a colony at the very doors of China, iu .the sudden transformation of their monarchy into a republic also' furnishw an object lesson quickly learned and easily remembered. The nevr educational system, incomplete as it is, and imperfectly comprehended both by many teachers and more students, will altect the minds of intelligent Chinese to a marked degree. Hitherto the youth of China have, fed on husks; now there is an attempt made to give them tho kernel. They have fed on historical legsuds as much as upon true history, and both have been unconscionably dry. Further, the creation of a vigorous native press,, which at limes is even daring, which ten years ago was in its infancy, and twenty years ago undreamed of by any, except a few men who had lived in lions-Kong or Shanghai, or who had travelled in Europe or America, brings into the shops and the homes ol tens u! thousands of the people ii resumo of modern history, as well as a detailed account of what is transpiring throughout tho eighteen provinces of the Middlo Kingdom.

There ore, however, oilier factors that must be enumerated anil considered. It is well known that the rulers of China ore- ns alien to tho people as are the British to tho people of India, or the Americann to tbb Philippines. Just as of late years I hero have been incontestable proofj that tho Hindoos would gladly throw off the yoko of tho British if they could, so lor many years there have been societies in China,, notably the Triad Society, whoso aim it is to throw olf the yoko of tho Manchus and enthrone a seion of tho Koyul House of the Mings, if cno can bo discovered, who shall be bone of their bone. There aro confessed «nd pronounced revolutionists, like Sun Yat ijan, nud others who are less vandalislic, like Hang Ynu Wei, who aro fofturina this national spirit, and who i>ro untiring in their efforts to concentrate, direct and giro effect to this national aspiration.

Tho prrstige uf tho Manchus has been irreparably ruined by t'heir stupendous ineptitude and consequent humiliations al tho hands of foreign Government's. Tho moro intelligent Chinese are now coming to fee quite clearly that to tho stupidity of their rulers, who assmncd a virtue when they had it: not, must be traced the humiliation of their Hag and tho loss of their territory. The rule of the Americans in tho Philippines has already done much for the uplifting of the people, arid will do yet more. In China the ruin of the Mnnchng has involved tho notion in disastrous consequences and pxpoped thorn to repeated defeats, with tho usual unpalatable results. The hatred of tho Chinese toward their. Manchu rulers has lately been perceptibly ptrengthenecl by tho latter's repeated attempts to increaso tho burden of taxation.

On the other hand, there is a good deal to bo said in support of the contention thnt a successful revolution is impossible, and if ono were attempted it would bo abortive. One of the most obvious and often referred to characteristics of tho Chinese is their apparent inability bi trust one another. This lack of trustworthiness undermines all successful attempts of organisation, for those whoso instincts and personal training ore as suspicious of thoir fellows as a bird is of a cat, will hesitate to place their fortunes and their lives in jeopardy. In a rush nnd with a shout, in the midst of any outbreak, where no organisation has been necessary, the Chinese, like any other crowd, will follow ono another and will act together. In mutual trust, which is essential'to effective organisation, they are markedly lacking, and wo ourselves enn recall nt least ono instance, where an attempt at a local revolution in Canton failed from this cause.

China covers a vast area, nnd its population is an immense conglomeration. Communication, therefore, between the different parts is difficult, nnd not nlivnys reliable. Moreover, the peoplo of the south aro foreigners and aliens lo the residents of the north. There is, therefore, no possible means of organising a movement that shall enmesh the whole of China, or which shall even embrace i'lio larger nnd more ■ important cities. Them have been many instances of local uprisings of considerable magnitude, bill the excitement, and even interest, liavo been confined to tho disC|uioted areas, while <ho other parts of thp Empire liavo neither sought' to discover the facts of the uprising, nor havo they shown much interest .in .the is^uos.

Tho jealous watchfulness of the authorities in regard to tho importation of weapons makes it , difficult lor arms and ammunition iu largo quantities to Una their way into tho hands of dissatisfied persons. It is true, arms and ammunition aro smuggled into the country, and tho bauds ot robbers which infest tho eaiith of China are always well armed, both with rifles and revolvers, But what aro these among so many? Tho days aro past, as in tho Tai Ping rebellion, when civilians, armed with swords and scythes, could meet and cut down dispirited soldier?, who woro armed with weapons as crude as their own. These difficulties, however, might l>o met and overcome by sresolut'o men. There yet remains the one obstacle that is colossal. Tho garrisons aro still composed of Manchu soldiers, who gel their rice dirertly from tho Emperor, ,aml whose duly it is to swagger over the Chinese anil hold themselves in readiness t) stamp out any kindling political fire. What the British regiments and batteries are in India (ho Monchu garrisons aro in China.

In summing up tho situation, it is obvious that much irritated unrest prevails, and t'hat many aggressive forces, whoso tendency is to disintegrate, aro at work in the country; that burdens beve been saddVxl upon the people during tho last fivo years which are well nigh unbearable; that millions of tho more intelligent and batter oducaled of the people would clap their hands for joy if they saw tho Manchus retreating; that the native press is bitterly anti-dynastic, oven confessedly revolutionislic. On t'ho other hand, the difficulties in the way of a successful revolution are apparently insurmountable, and wo think that China will drag on longer yet, in the old, blundering and lumbering way, until she onco more comes into political conflict' with Japan about Manchuria, which may furnish the opportunity for which many wait.