The Dominion. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 3, 1911. WAR AND THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1248, 3 October 1911, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 3, 1911. WAR AND THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

In .most of the recent discussions relating to Morocco it seems to have been taken for granted that in the event of a European conilagration Austria would be from the first found on the side of Germany. The question is of particular interest just now, in view of the war between Italy and Turkey, with its attendant possibilities. The compact between Germany and Austria probably constitutes the more solid portion _ of the Triple Alliance, yet it provides for Austria assisting Germany only in the event of an attack being made upon the Fatherland. This fact alone, no doubt, has in the past made for the peace of Europe. 'The Kaiser can read the riddle of European diplomacy just as clearly as any Continental statesman—probably a little more clearly than the majority of them—and he fully realises that his aims and aspirations find little favour with the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, or with the Archduke's Ministerial, confidant, Count von Aerentiial. Many years have passed sincc Napoleon, in his Journal dc I'Jj'mpire, wrote that "only a great statesman and warrior can save Austria from immediate disruption." Austria since these words were written has suffered grievously and often. But internal peace, ancl at least a semblance of cohesion among her diverse peoples and races have been secured, with the result that to-day Austria-Hungary discloses no outward and visible indication of approaching disruption. Indeed, the signs are that the Empire of the aged Francis Joseph is not only extending its frontiers, but is also animated within by a great natural impulse, or movement, which if successful will ensure the solidarity, the peace, and the strengthening of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The movement to which we refer is what has been termed the Slav Renaissance. Probably it would be more correct to describe it as the immense Slav population of the Empire ceasing to look towards Russia and fixing its hopes _ solely . upon Austria-Hungary. Sincc the ruthless stamping out in Russia of the latest revolution, the Nationalist and Slav movement there lias been paralysed. But the Eastern, or Rus- j sian/Slav.is totally unlike his kindred of Austria-Hungary. In a recent Fortnightly Jt'uvicir, Mr. R. C. Long, the wcli-infovmcd European correspondent of a London journal, writing' from Vienna, said: ''.Were all the hundred and fifty mil-,

Uon Slavs of Europe and Asia- in the militant mood of the Austrian Czechs and Poles, we should have no more cause to fear German expansion. Rut the Slav races themselves are divided in ideals and aspirations. The 'Western Slavs—the Poles, Ilia Czechs, the Slovenians—arc all aggressive, Nationalist, and antiGe'rman. Differing themselves in race, they are all anti-Ger-man. Their literature is Nationalist, militant, and inspired by political aims. Their literary and political unionsfiirc , infinitely more alive than any Pan-German leagues." The present population of AustriaHungary is probably not far off fifty million, and of that total the Slavs number a good deal more than the half. Austrian Germans arc' estimated at about' fourteen million, while the remainder of the inhabit-' ants are Servians, Croats, llumanians, and others—an extremely in- j toresting, but not over-liarmonious, intermingling of races, aims, customs, and languages. The' facts, however, which lend interest to'the outside world in Austria-Hungary at the present time are the unduubt-. Ed non-German tendencies alike of its' ruling caste and of its people. Bismarck early recognised the value of Austria's friendship and aid to Germany. <Ho declared on many occasions that a strong and • united Austria was essential to Europemeaning, of course, essential to Germany. So convinced was he of Germany's need of .Austria that he proposed a clause for insertion in the Constitution of each country providing for the perpetual the two Powers, and that against all foes and under all circumstances. Tho day for that alliance seems i to have passed. Austrian Germanism, according to the authority just quoted, is disappearing rapidly. Austrian affairs, he proceeds to state, both as regards tbe Hungarian and the Slav questions, have lately taken the turn which makes it imperative for Great Britain to consider them from the standpoint of much larger issues. The contest for European dominance lies, he believes, between the Germans arid the Slavs. ■ Count Aekentiul is said to encourage the belief that Napoleon's "great statesman and warrior" has arrived for Austria in tho person of the Archduke Fkanz Ferdinand. The policy which the Archduke and the Foreign Minister are pursuing silently, but none the less steadfastly, is weli known to be that of setting up Austria as a great Catholic Slav Power. To this policy the chief qpposition comes irom the German population,' from those subjects of the Emperor-King who look to Berlin, who discourse on 'Pan-German-ism, and are strongly anti-clerical These Austrian Germans have already invited attention to the antiGerman movement, as well as to tho Archduke's supposed intention to at all hazards uphold the Roman Curia. Probably the greatest danger to the peace of Europe, following the consolidation of the AustroHungarian Empire, will be Franz Ferdinand's attitude towards Italy, and this has a bearing on the present situation which must not be overlooked. In Austria the Triple Alliance is nowhere considered as _ more than a mere temporary expedient. That it is tho policy of the Archduke and Count Aerknihal to arm against Italy no one in Vienna, it would seem, has the slightest doubt. Against Italy—comes information from tho Austrian capital—are the four Dreadnoughts being built, not against England, as German newspapers desired Europe to believe. Threatened States, like threatened men, live long, and before the time comes for Austria's march towards 1h.3 Adriatic, wiser, more pacific, counsels may prevail both in Vienna, and in Rome. For the Irredentists arc still a force within Italy, and the desire for war might be confined not alone to Austria-Hungary. The Irri'dentist movement has already on several occasions brought trouble very near. In the event of war, the German Emperor, to all appearance, would discover himself absolutely bereft of allies. That her army is large, and her navy not to be dospised, would provide but little confidence, and less consolation to Germany, in view of her borders being girt with passivelyindifferent, or, it might be, with actively hostile Powers. It will thus be seen that Germany will require to move with the utmost caution in any step she may take to bring about a settlement of tho Turco-Italian trouble, or she may find herself running counter to the views of her most powerful ally. Austria-Hungary may regard the war, 'which is likely to make a heavy drain on the resources of tho two nations engaged, as calculated to assist towards the attainment of her own ambitions.