NEW ZEALAND'S BUTTER

Dominion, Volume 3, Issue 874, 21 July 1910, Page 8

NEW ZEALAND'S BUTTER

OUTLOOK,

, REVIEW AND FORECAST. According to Mr. M. C. Dahl, the dairy produce, manager in London of Messrs. .Weddoll- and Company, tho prospects of the butter market for the, coming season we fairly bright from the New Zealand ; producers' point of view, Mr; Dakl, who has been engaged during tho last dozen years in the sale and distribution of dairy produce in the United Kingdom, irrived |in Wellington yesterday morning by' thoAUinuka from Sydney.Reviewing the season just ended, Mr. Dahl said that those butter factories which had sent their goods Home to bo ''gold on open consignment had every reae*on to bo satisfied, for the prices realised 'iad been Higher on the average than . in any preceding season, and the averago for • all first; grade New' Zealand butter -would probably work out at 112s. to 1143. :«g>ftr' cwt.\ c.i.f.,, London, , and might in ' jsome casts be even higher. That splcnIdid record had been effected in spite of a •very large increase in the arrivals of : [Australian and Nenr Zealand butter to 4ho "United Kingdom during 19011-IU. One of the principal factors in determining tho value of colonial butter last season ;had been thsi very serious de« crease >in the imports of butter continental countrta. Buyers and agents (had been anticipating much lower prioe9 (from the New Year onwards, but tho comparative failure of the hay crops throughout Europo had .causcd a shortage of winter feed, and therefore there had been a .greatly, .diminished milk yield,' with thV result 'that supplies from Denmark, France, Holland, and other foreign countries had been greatly curtailed. Strange to say, that prospective, shortage of winter, feed on the Conftinent feciiicd to have been almost entirely'overlooked at Home, and probably accounted for the reluctance with which upeculative buyers went 1 forward at tho ■ beginning of last season. .New Zealand's Prices.* 1 ! ■ "The . prices demanded by the factories in Now Zualand," said Mr. 1 Dahl, "wero considered- to be very high, and heavy operating was reckoned to be risky. However, as so often is the case with dairy produce, tho unexpected has happened jonce. rao«v and the New Zealander can Hook back on tlfe season 1909-10 with every Satisfaction, especially; as tho : bulk of Jthe butter and a good deal of tho cheese Ws beeii sold on account of the factories, and on open consignment. Tho [past season ,is in direct* contrast, to that 'of 1908-I', lor! the univeisal opinions then 'jwas that v we would have/another year ;of dear butter | owing to the effect of ftho : drought. in Australia during 1907-8, .where, in Victoria alone, the number, of ;Cows. decreased from . 709,279 in .1908, to €09,166 in . 1901 Titerc wore," also,. practically'.no reserve' stocks A .of .at/the opening 'of : tho' 1908-9 .season, and- yet never trinco Australasian butter was imported into .tho United .Kingdom were the -forecasts wider, of. the. mark. The/unnxipected* again happened, for most exceptional BUinmer-liko weather, continned all . over. Europe almost Yup' till phristmas, jarid tho. production of 'butter ' was very >mnch in - excess of all past experience, jand that naturally depressed themarket just at/.tho .tirao. wrhen'Australasia'n .butIter, began to/arrive. • During';.the'four jmonths/,September to December,.in 1908, 17660 tons-;of foreign butter in excess of ttho previous-year's imports-(equal to an iincreaso -of 15 per cent.)* came upon':the {English-markets. :From January to April, *1909,. the excess over., the, previous-year; 1 1 was," 3600: tons. That made a total in-, fcreaso* of-11,260 tons for the eight months, \ when .the.'great, bulk of Australasian-but-ter is : in largest isupply on.British, niari, kets" r T «4» i • r-iT.. •' • Forecasting, ' Speaking nf forecasting,' Mr. Dahl said: "It has often been'said' that, it' is~priu>~ tically impossible- for.' anybody,accurately, to forecast what the market is going to ;be in Great Britain a month ahead, and itho seasons of 1908-9 and 1909-10 amply fbear : that' out.'. •

• f"ihn<, brings us to. the outlook.,foi 1910-11. Generally 6peaking, it'is possible at this time of the year roughly to'forecast whether the prices on our market iare likely'to be high or low, but when Jail ig said and done one can but gerier--1 alise, for Nature always has the last word, and too often upsets all our plana , ; and calculations. However,,it is possible . at this eurly stage to venture an opinion on the prospects of butter and chefee tux the coming season. One of the most .otriiing features in connection with our 'dairy produco industry at Home is the ■falling- off of supplies. France, Holland, IBelgium, Italy, the United States, Amitralla, Canada, and New Zealand' were iall sending England more butter in VM :than in 1909. In 1904 the imports'were 1218,943 tons of butter, and 135,777't0n5' lof cheese. In 1909 England imported ,abont 8000 tons of butteri and 17,000 tons ; of cheese less.-, ■ . '■ ■

Our Prospects. ■ • ! "The demand '~for high-class; butter is ilncreasins year, by yosii nnd.vhon it is remembered that Canada and the United States have practically stopped exporting butter to great; Britain, and that Germany is. now a'_ very large j importer of Danish and : , Siberian, and has "become, a very serious competitor of' England's, the ,Now Zealand -dairymen-can .reasonably !look forward'to- and:- expect good-, prices for some;'time!to come.i'Prices.'are:keepinj:' np : well' in England,' and 'are 'considerably higher than at. the corresponding period .last- year, and that notwithstanding, that the imports of butter and margarine:■ from January, 1 to'.the 'end of May •were: over 17,000. tons more than in the, same' period the previous year. No stronger argument can. be produced for the: soundness of the position .and tho improved state of trade." • ' . -