Britain Will Have External Surplus In June Next

Chronicle (Levin), 16 March 1949, Page 5

Britain Will Have External Surplus In June Next

■ Received Wednesday, 1 a.m. S LONDON, March 15. ! In her battle for recovery Britain has snrprised even her own eeonomists by balancing hcr trade with the world as a whole, it was officially announeed. But — and it is a vital but — within this overall squaring of aecounts there remains the bogey of the vast dollar defieit. The Chancellor of the Excheqner (Sir Stafford Cripps) in his annual economie survey published today described tliis defieit as "now the worst danger spot in the eeonomy." The survey shows that Britain is expected to have a surplus of £15,000,000 in her balance of external payments for the twelve months ending June next. Renter 's financial editor comments : ' ' This eame as a surprise / because as recently as last December the Oovernment testimated a defieit of £362,000,000 for this p.eriod." The survey explained that the estimated defieit had been based on stale data. It had assnmed that Britain would be able to get mueh bigger non-dollar supplies than she did; that she would have to pay rather higher prices than in fact prevailed ; and .it under- ■ estimated the increase in British exports- which has sinee oecurred. ;' • The survey said: "The ontstanding fact is that despite ihe assumption of a considerable increase in imports onr payments are expected to remain approximately in balance." The survey sounded this sobering note on the general prospects: "It is impossible to expeet that 1949 will impr-ove on 1948 as markedly as did 1948 on 1947 . " The survey described the feat in balancing the world account as "a noteworthy achievement eomparing it with the huge defieit of £630,000,000 in 1947. This achievement represents only a stage in the progress towards our final goal of full economie independence. The dollar defieit remains the crueial problem."