ANALYSIS OF VOTING

Chronicle (Levin), 29 November 1946, Page 6

ANALYSIS OF VOTING

Labours Majority Barely Three Per Cent. Approximately 1,000,000 citizens voted on Wednesday when allowance is made for tlie postal and absentee votes, and there is now prospect oi a very heavy poll that may exceed 92 per cent. of the registered electors. In 1943 only 82. 8-2 per cent. of electors voted, but 1938 saw a record of 92.85, per ' chnt. established, a tignre unexcelled in 30 years, if not tlirough all the history of New Zealand elections. Such a polling confirms the previous impression that the people were acutely interested 111 tliis 1946 election. A'vory close contcst resultecl, for on preliminary iinal iigures (includbig Ihe Maori volo) there wero 498,30c Votes for Labour and 468,300 for tla National Party — a dili'erence of onh 30,000 votes in 1,000,000. The decision of but oue person in 32 deeided tlic i'ate of tlie parties. Un the strict basis of eleetoral support Labour would be entitled to 41 seats and National 39. To a most marked dcgree, town and eountry voted iu opposition to each otlier, as is shown by the followiug analysis : ; Metropolitan Seats Some 32 seats, 40: per cent. of the total, are classed as metropolitan: Auckland 12, Wellington 9, Christchurch 7 and Dunedin 4. In this group Labour won 26 seats and National 5. Consolidated returhs for the four centres are as follow (figures in parentheses after "seats won" show uuinber of seats that should have bees won on voting strength) : — Auckland (93 per cent. poll): Labour 81,500 votes; seats won 9 (7). National 61,700; seats woii 3 (5). Majority for Labour, 20,000 votes. Wellington (88 per cent. poll): La bour 61,300; seats won 7 (5). National 44,600; seats won 2 (4). Majority for Labour, 17,000 votes. Christchurch (90 per cent. poll): Labour 52.700; seats won 6 (41). National 34,500; seats won 1 ('21). Majority for Labour 18,000. Dunedin (911 per. cent. poll): Labour 29,900; seats won 4 (21). National 20,600; seats won 0 (11). Majority for Labour 9300. In the metropolitan areas as a wliole the voting was 225,600 Labour atiu 161,400 National. Peats won: 26 to 6. On voting strength the proportions would have been 19 Labour to 13 National. Provincial-Urban Another large group of seats pre doiiiinantly of citv* character embraces the 13 electorates of Palmerston North, Wanganui, Waitakere, Otahuhu, Hamil ton, Oisborne, New Piymoutli, Napier, Hastings, Nelson, Timaru, Oamaru and Invercargill. These may be classilied as provincial-urban. A consolidated return for. thesjp gives the followiug figures: — Polling 911 poi cent. Votes cast: Labour 87,100, National 77,800. Seats won 9 to 4, whereas proportionate to voting strength the seats would have been 7 Labour to 6 National. Rural-Industrial A small group -of four seats may be classilied as rural-industrial in that al though in a eountry setting they aro not farming but rather indnstrial areas sucli as miiiing and sawinilling. Tlie seats are Raglan, Waimarino, Westlaud and Buller. A consolidated return for these gives a 921 per cent. poll witli 28,700 votes to Labour and 2(1,800 to National. Tlie tio veriuueiit won all l'our seats, whereas on voting streiigtli llio division would have been 21 Labour to 11 National. North Island Rural Whai National losl in represenlation t'rom urban areas by liie lnisl'ortunes oi polling was largely made good iu rural eleclora-tes, both North and Soulh. There are 18 of these seats in Ihe North Island: Rangitikei, Manawata, Otaki, Pahiatua,- Wairarapa, Dobson, Marsden, Rodney, Pranhlin, Hauraki. Piako, Waikato, Tauranga, Pay of Plenty, Waitomo, lOginont, Patea am! Hawke's PaV. O ii the preliminary liuals every onc. of these 18 go to the National Party — not oue to Labour — whereas ou votes cast, the propoiiions due would be 11 National to 7 Labour. Tlie polling was very heavy at 931 per cent. National socured 135, iUO votes to 88,790 for Labour. South Island Rural The South Island lias nino rural seats — Marlborough, Hurunui, Selwyn, Ashburton, Waimate, Central Otago, Clutha, Awarua and Wallace. Nation&l has won tlie lot, whereas on voting strength the proportions would be 5 National to 4 Labour. Polling was not so heavy as in the north, at 9.11 per cent. National secured 61,600 votes to Labour 's 46,200. Maori Seats The Maoris elected four members to Parliament, all for Labour, by casting 34,400 votes. In comparison with European electors the Maoris have from this a 50 per cent. quota of votes per seat and should only he entitled to elect 21 memhers. Just over 1000 Sonth Island Maoris enjoy an M.P. all to themselves. Still Douhtful Seats Not for perhaps ten davs yet will the tinal results of the election be do termined. Changes are i»ossible in 10 seats from the large number of absentee and postal yotes that have yet to be taken into account. Tn several eases 1000 and even 1300 votes are involved. Those to lic ronsidered doubtful seats are held for the timo being b.v majorities of under 250 , votes — four . by Labour and six bv National. TJneven Electorates Wlien new eleetoral boundaries were deterinined it was understood thaf the electorates were to be of approximately 13,000 strength with a 500 toleranee only. However, results have worked out far otherwise, electorate strength s showing enrolled variatkms . from 11,300 to 15,300. There are seven

of 15,000 and upwards, and several under 13,000, with a great number around the 13,600 figure. Prior to the 1949 general election, there may be anticipated further and, in some cases, fairly eonsiderable boundary changes. _