All quiet on the Golan Heights

Press, 15 February 1986, Page 18

All quiet on the Golan Heights

This report, filed from Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights by MASHA HAMILTON, of Associated Press, was submitted to the Israeli military censor, who made several changes.

Thousands of Israeli and Syrian tanks and soldiers are poised on both sides of this rocky ridge, on the alert for a possible war.

The opposing troops, separated along a craggy, 80 kilometre frontier by United Nations peacekeepers, watch each other with binoculars. Some strongholds are less than 1.5 kilometres apart. “Jane’s Defence Weekly," the London-based magazine, warned in December that Syria had built

up its forces along the Golan and “is able to initiate ah all-out war against Israel." Israeli military sources say Syria has doubled its divisions since the northern summer to six in the region, and has 2000 tanks and 80,000 soldiers between the Golan border and Damascus, 65 kilometres away. In addition, Syrian troops recently held their largest manoeuvres in four years, the sources said on condition of anonymity. For the moment things are

calm, “even pastoral," as one commander said during a visit at an Israeli post surrounded by a field of barbed wire.

“Two goats stepped on an Israeli mine two days ago and were blown up. That’s the most exciting thing to happen around here lately,” the officer said. Major-General Ehud Barak, head of the Israeli Army’s central command and formerly chief for two years of military Intelligence, says Syria is completing a programme to rebuild its army this year and may feel confident enough to start war with Israel.

Syria, for its part, has said it will defend itself against any infringement of its sovereignty. Damascus also says that Israel could use its position on the Heights to launch attacks against

Syria. In addition, Syria accuses Israel of illegally occupying and annexing Arab land. Major-General Ori Orr, chief of Israel’s northern command, said in September that Israel, like Syria, also had strengthened its Golan presence. He did not give figures. “We are thinking more about war here these days. Our eyes and ears are much more open,” said an Israeli post commander, who could not be identified, in keeping with military regulations.

Israeli leaders view Syria as Israel’s gravest threat in the Middle East They also believe the Israel-held portion of the Golan, captured in 1967 and annexed in 1981, is crucial to the country's defence. Tensions rose sharply when

Israel downed two of Syria’s Soviet-built MiGf fighters in November. >- Syria responded by deploying missiles that Israel claimed threatened crucial reconnaissance flights over Lebanon. Damascus complained to the , United Nations that the over-*! flights threatened ■ Syria’s own’*' security. • The United States mediated the conflict and persuaded Syria,.i’ to remove anti-aircraft missiles deployed on Lebanese soil. ,*< The crisis potential remained: Long-range SAM 2 missiles areastill deployed along Syria’s border with Lebanon, and Israeli reconnaissance flights over snow- > capped Mount Hermon continue. •'!' Israel has warned that if Syrian-supported Palestinian*; guerrillas attack northern border X settlements, Israeli pilots will bomb the missiles. a

Israeli public opinion probably would not support a war in the ; Golan started by Israel, so it is more probable that Syria would ’ spark any conflict, according to > an Israeli analyst, Moshe Maoz, a * specialist on Syria at Hebrew University. Syria . will not attack Israel ‘ until it feels capable of striking a serious blow, but at some point it may believe the time is right for \ two reasons, Mr Maoz told Asso-' ciated Press.

"First, Syria wants to somehow sabotage efforts to start peace . talks between Israel, Jordan, and* the Palestinians, and a limited" war could be one way to do J that,” Mr Maoz said. . v • “Second, its confrontation * point with Israel in south 4 Lebanon has been eliminated”since Israel withdrew all but* 1000 troops from Lebanon last :' June, he said. “It may be willing * to meet Israel on the Golan.” 4

Israeli analysts tend to believe Syria would mount an attack in* the Golan to gain some ground ■a and then call quickly for a” 1 ceasefire. Israel also has said 4 that if there were any attack, itwould try to limit the scope of* hostilities. ,

Syrians on the strategic Golan 1 once were able to fire on fisher- * men in the Sea of Galilee and on - nearby Israeli settlements. ’ Today, 8000 Jewish settlers’, live there with 16,000 indigenous ■■ Druse. The Israeli Army is posl- 4 tioned on many of the black , volcanic hilltops around Mount “ Hermon, which reaches 2814 metres above sea level.