Trudeau risks election

Press, 11 April 1979, Page 24

Trudeau risks election

From the ‘Economist,’ London After dipping a toe into the political water several times and finding it inhospitable, Mr Pierre Trudeau has taken the plunge at last and called a General Election for May 22. He has already been in power in Canada for 11 years, the longest unbroken skein of any Western democratic leader; and he had stretched out the life of the House of Commons that was elected in July, 1974, nearer to the end of its full five-year term than any Canadian Prime Minister had done since the Second World War.

His hopes that his Liberal party’s prospects would improve have been justified by the latest opinion polls, which show that it has now caught up with the Progressive Conservatives. But if the Liberals and Tories get equal shares of the popular vote, the Tories will win more seats than the Liberals, whose votes will largely be wasted in piling up big majorities in their Quebec strongholds. In the outgoing house of 264 seats (to be increased to 282 at this election) the Liberals held 133 seats to the Tories’ 98. but nearly half of the Liberals’ seats were Quebec ones.

The new’ balance of power may depend on how’ successfully the socialist New Democratic Party can

exploit the prevailing uncertainty; it held 17 seats at the dissolution. Another factor is the apparent revival of the Creditistes of rural Quebec (nine seats).

This stubborn little rump has found a new leader in Mr Fabien Roy. It could acquire some influence if there is a minority government. And what electoral effect, if any, will there be from the publication of the autobiography of Mr Trudeau’s estranged wife, Margaret? Her widely publicised indiscretions might sidetrack the campaign.

Mr Trudeau’s main aim will be to convince Englishspeaking Canadians that this is no ordinary election, that Canada’s future as a unified country is at stake, and that he and his Liberals are better equipped than Mr Joe Clark’s Tories to meet the separatist challenge posed

by Mr Rene Levesque’s Parti Quebecois — which now rules Quebec, but is not a contender in this Federal General Election. However, Mr ’ vesque’s recent softpedalling tactics have weakened these Liberal arguments, and thus made it easier for the Tories to focus their campaign on economic problems. Counter-attacking, the Liberals will make the most of the Conservatives’ divisions over energy policies. Most of Canada’s oil and gas reserves are in Alberta, whose Tory provincial government wants it to be free to sell oil at world market prices.

The Liberals say that Mr Clark, who is campaigning as Tory leader for the first time and suffers from a somewhat bumbling, accident-prone image, would be afraid to stand up to the premier of Alberta, Mr Peter Lougheed.