Must We Resort to THIS

Radio Record, Volume V, Issue 28, 22 January 1932, Page 7

Must We Resort to THIS

by

Dr.

J.

HIGHT

broadcast from 3YA 31/12/31

y "To attempt to keep Germany in the strastwaistcoat, political, economic and military, in which she has been confined since 1918, is to lay the foundations of another war.’ Undoubtedly Dr. J. Hight forsaw

4 Germany's difficulttes-that she could not meet her obliga- . tions. Unless European nations revise radically the terms of the Peace Treaty-and disarm---the ‘world again'will be aiseething cauldron of WAR. ‘

URELY there can now be but few who would deny that we are living in a period of rapid socia! change which appears to be speeding toward its crisis, when old institutions may be cast off or profoundly modified, perhaps even the very nature of Western social structure changed in essentials, and the importance, power and influence of nations acquire quite new relative proportions. Despite our reading of history, how obstinately we cling to the idea or at any rate act on the supposition that whatever is must have been for ages and shall be for ever! Do we ever reflect, for example, that the present British Empire or the commercial and industrial supremacy of Britain is but a few score years old? It is a wholesome thing in times like ours to-day to reflect upon the fact that empires and even civilisations have flourished and passed away. Not to tempt pessimism but to arouse ourselves to devise correctives. Is the present generation to make one of the epoch-making decisions as to choosing between the paths along which lie decadence and ruin on the one hand and advance and wellbeing on the other? One thing is certain-that its leaders will have to make momentous, if not so decisive judgments, this coming year and early, too. As Mr. Troup said in one of these talks recently political changes and adjustments lag behind economic and general social changes, but even politicians now see that the world stage is being set for a series of the most dratnatic scenes in all human experience. The old order, out of touch with changes in economic practice and the march of political ideas, may be burst asunder unless the nations take wise counsel together and immediate action upon it.

The settlement after the: War, including the League of Nations and the principle of the Pacific settlement of international disputes, did not win universal acceptance. Nevertheless there has been progress. Germany was admitted a member of the League in 1926; the U.S.A. has co-operated with the League in most important work; the League, with its regular and frequent conferences of European statesmen, has become an essential part of the political structure of Europe, and it has staved off some wars. HE old nationalist and militarist system of alliances and the balance of power, however, is still followed by France. now holding the dominant .

position in Europe, though a member of the League, and armaments are increasing (or

were up to November 1) despite Article 8 of the Covenant, by £150 millions in six years.

Armaments mean the negation of law and justice as be-

tween nations, and set up rivalry leading inevitably to — war, and the probable horrors and ruin of another world war beggar the imagination. Events of the last few weeks would indicate that the sense of these horrors is weakening. The proportion of the population with first-hand knowledge of the War decreases every year. Hence the greater need to strengthen all peacemaking institutions and of a common or universal policy to avert war.

The future of the world depends on the acceptance of this principle and the rejection of the contrary. Group agreements are welcome only if they settle disputes between the members of the group concerned, and do not combine them against other States. The Austro-German Customs Union proposed this year promised to be such an agreement; a British Commonwealth preference agreement would do more harm than good, if it contained clauses threatening positive damage to the trade of the rest of the world. The resolution of the Foreign Ministers of France, (Continued on page &}

Germany, Great Britain and Italy in January last; a resolution endorsed by 23 other Buropean foreign Ministers and representatives of four other ®uropean States, favoured the liberal principle. It asserted that the economie recovery of the world was hindered by widespread political anxiety and that the best service they could render toward meeting the economic position is the firm assurance of BDuropean peace. "We therefore declare," they said, "as foreign Ministers er responsible representatives of Buropean States that we are resolutely determined to use the machinery of the League to prevent any resort fe violence." . This resolution suggests a brief re ference to the connection between economic conditions and the functioning of the League. The current severe depression from this point of view has influences for good and evil. On the good side-it increases internationa! meetings in the effort to find a solu tion; it brings nations togethei (Czecho-Slovakia and Hungary); it gives a new stimulus to the reduction of armaments; on the other hand, it has most unhappy political effect» which have been abundantly _ illus: trated by the events of this year when the temper of the peoples have been darkened by the economic gloom; fea of disaster and of loss of prestige increases in times of depression: politica: dangers are exaggerated in the public mind; there is a lack of confidence. o1 trust in the future, and a positive sux picion of other countries. This latter increases internationai friction through the aggravation of economic nationalism; a country’ is only too eager to adopt tariffs and other devices discriminating against other countries (in 1930 and 1931 there were many and important — tariff changes and they were generally in an upward direction). Depression always disturbs the political situation countries-discontent finds expression in change of Governments and late: feeds upon the disillusion that usual}s follows fast upon such changes; and measures are taken in haste that often lead to quarrels with other countries This year of 1931 in which the temper of the peoples has heen dominate: by the depression has exhibited al these features in strong relief. _ Up to August there were hopefui signs that the political situation wm Europe was improving-opinion sympathetic with the spirit of the Locarnes treaties and the Pact of Varis was growing in most countries: responsibiec Huropean statesmen were developing a habit of close and almost constant

contact with one another at Genevu, where there was a wholesome anxiety visible in the discussion of recent events and apparently genuine efforts to avoid provocative action, This was due largely to M. Briand and the leadership of Great Britain. The reputation of Mr. Henderson grew as the year advanced. Politically the Franco-German pro}lem is the most central of European problems... Mr. Troup has already spoken of this. Last year the success of the Hitler party in Germany was due largely to the discontent of the young men with the economic situation and — the outlook for the futute; they were (letermined they would not be bound down by the terms of a peace unjust and impossible of fulfilment. The evacuation of the Rhineland (five years before the due date) had a twofold effect within Germany-it stimulated and intensified the nationalist spirit and on the other hand the political differences which had been put in the background in the presence of the common enemy began again to divide the people. The growth of Gernian nationalism stiffened up France and her resolve to persist in her polices of dependence on troops and alliances As the year progressed the Briand policy of conciliation and = genu ine utilisation of the Leagne weakened. France clearly aimed ai the military predominance of hersel! und her allies; she had felt herself de serted by U.S.A. and Great: Britain after the peace, and, the League having _no force at its command, she had decided to police Europe herself. That military predominance she has recent: ly inereased, as we shall see later, Tn effect, she succeeded in isolating Ger: many by using the old methods of dip lomacy, and on occasions the League when if could serve her ends. The new idea of an international government for Europe, which seems the only means of safeguarding Western civi‘isation, is in danger of being over hadowed by the old idea of the dom nation of a group of Powers subservient to one. The French believe that the only real alternative to their own -upremacy is the supremacy of Germany and her allies. They demand seeurity not only against invasion, but sgainst any alteration of the treaties hy foree. Germany deminds equality in armaments and a revision of the terms of the peace, As one wriler says: "We ought to be much more surprised ‘han we are that 2 German revolution ix again staved off. No people are so tnw-abiding or so patient. When the history of the last twelve years comes

to’ be written we shall see that the central tragedy has been the failure to make use of the pacific mood of postwar Germany. For years after the war Germany was not only disarmed, but she did not want to re-arm. The Hohenzollerns, the Junkers, the whole paraphernalia of Prussian militarism, were utterly discredited, and if the Allies had made a different use of their victory, the endless chain of FrancoGerman hostility-war, revenge, and revenge again-would have been broken.

"The German universities were filled vith sincere pacifists, anxious not for ‘evyanche, but for a new kind of under. -tanding, a new kind of Hurope. Sen‘mentalists, if one cares to call them o, they had believed in Wilson’s terms. ney had accepted the League idea. "It would be idle to pretend ~hat the sume spirit prevails among young men ind women in Germany to-day. How could it? The astonishing thing is that it has lasted so long as it has and that is not yet dead. "Wirst, there were the crushing huailiations of Versailles, based on the -byions lie that the whole "war guilt" was on Germany’s shoulders, the surrender of. German. territory, east and west, the loss of her colonies, Then followed the black troops on the Rhine -the kind of savage incident that the aggressor thinks trivial and that the rumiliated nation never forgets. Then the invasion of the Ruhr, the continuous struggle over reparations, and the running sore of the Polish corridor, the opposition to. German entry into the League--was any opportunity missed to outrage German pride and evoke German nationalism to make pacificism impossible and to recreate the spirit that awoke in Germany more than a century ago after the disaster of Jena?"

| Solution by Foree. ‘eb her claims are not considered and some pacific means of revision dcvised, there is no doubt that Germany will abandon the League as a sham and try to find a solution by force. We must agree with a writer in "The Round Yable’ of September. who says that "to attempt to keep Germany in the = strait-waistcoat, political, economic and military, in which she has been confined since 1918, is to lay the foundations for another world war.’ He describes the growth of condi{ions that seem to show it is only a question of time until the effectiveness of the French alliance system is neutralised and even out-matched, and notes the growing opinion in France itself "that, even from the narrow standpoint of the security of France, Poland, and the Little Entente, no less than from the wider standpoint of the League of Nations,’

the right policy is to aim at some moderate scheme of revision in so far as the peace treaties are concerned and at the same time to carry all-round disarmament sufficiently far as to render it impossible for any nation to invade its neighbours of comparable size with any hopes of success, and to make the co-operative machinery of the League of Nations for the settlement of disputes and the prevention of war really effective." Since this was written, France has greatly increased her ascendancy, but on the other hand the feeling that Europe is on the edge of a precipice and may: take a fatal plunge. has been enormously intensified by the events of the last few weeks, arid is evidently spreading in France. Italy would probably welcome an international pacific settlement; the action of Grandi at the recent Assembly session in proposing a temporary 12 months’ armament truce and Musso~ } lini’s speeches reported these last few~ days are symptomatic. And the U.S.A., though determined to remain outside the European political structure, has co-operated with the League in many ways, knows that the preservation of world peace is essential for her interests, and is using her financial control as a lever to help on Huropean disarmament. Over the Manchurian question, her influence has undoubtedly been exercised in the direction of peace in co-operation with the League. Russia is too busy with internal development to spare effort toward national aggrandisement, and would welcome disarmament, probably for more reasons than her fear of attack by the eapitalist Powers. HKvents of 1931. qs there spuce to glance at a few of the details of the calendar of events in 1931? In January there was an jnternationnl conference at Paris concerning the drain of gold to France; this showed the developing. consciousness that international co-operation is necessary to tide over an economic crisis of that nature. ‘The oppressive treatment of racial minorities by Poland was the subject of German and Russian protests and subsequent resolutions by the League. {n February, the tension between France and Italy tightened; France, suspicious of Italy, increased her naval expenditure; there was some fear of a German-Italian alliance to whieh Bulgaria, Hungary, and even Russia might adhere. In Germany the Hitler Party, seceded from Parliament and _ there were signs of a decline in their power. (Concluded on page 22.)

Surprise Items N order to avoid undue uniformity, we hear that a policy of occasional surprise items is to be adopted from Station 2YA. This will be by way of experiment in order to determine the appeal made to listeners, The first surprise item will be given on February 1.

Must We Resort to This?

(Continued from page 8.) In March, France and Italy made & friendly agreement, largely through the efforts of Mr, Henderson. This provided for a reduction of naval expenditure, but left France still with an unduly large submarine fleet. The rising resentment in France against German na-, tionalism was raised to boiling point by the publication of the proposal to form an Austro-Ger-man Customs Union. The alarm spread to her allies and Italy. The proposed Union was in itself good, since its main immediate object was to lower tariffs and increase the flow of goods, and it was not to be an exclusive . union but open to other countries to } join if they thought fit; it might beregarded as the first practical step toward the institution of the Unitéd States of Hurope that had been proposed by M. Briand a year before. But both the mode and the time of its announcement were far from tactful; the chief result was to throw another extremely disturbing element into the Huropean situation just at a time when the approaching Disarmament Conference called for a calming of all national passions. It gave the French a new basis on which to ground opposition to . general disarmament. Germany must be kept down at all costs, even at the sacrifice of general economic weifare. . They were alarmed in April at the English invitation to the German Ministers Bruening and Ourtius to visit Chequers, and haggled over finalising the naval agreement with Italy in the attempt to get the most out of the bar-~ gain. Dissensions in his party and the failure of the Hitlerite Government in Thuringia still further weakened Hitler. The agrarian depression induced Czecho-Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Rumania, and Jugo-Slavia to negotiate an economic agreement which had French approval. ‘The minority question again forced itself on the notice of Hurope, this time in the S. Tyrol, where the people desire return to Austria. ‘The statistics relating to the progress of the Russian Five-Year Plan, now near the half-way point, begin to impress on observers the conviction that Russia is in truth being rapidly converted into an industrial country. Where before had been contempt based on ignorance, there came now a panic fear that MRussian imports’ might ruin industries in other countries. Russia’s share 4 the world trade, however, was only 9.6 per cent. before the war, and had drop-° . ped to less than 1 per cent. in 1931; im- } ports from Russia were less than } per cent.’of Dngland’s total imports. [We regret that, owing to undue pressure on space, the continuation of this article will have to be held over until next week.-HEd.]