POULTRY NOTES

New Zealand Tablet, 10 April 1919, Page 33

POULTRY NOTES

(By Mr. G. H. Ambler, Christchurch.)

THE VIRTUE OF AVERAGES. With the advent of April there begins a new laying season, and the poultry-keeper should bear in mind that the question of average plays & most important part in every branch of industry, and in none more than the poultry industry. We must bear in mind that the exceptional does not indicate, much less determine, profitin fact, very often the reverse is absolutely true, and the exceptional is a “Will'o’ the wisp’’ that leads the operator astray. We must take into account everything, whether these be equal or unequal, whether they be satisfactory or unsatisfactory. It is not what a few fowls will do, but how far one balances another. That such is true is within the experience of everyone. Such is perhaps more evident since the introduction of artificial incubation and of trade interests, because in both these instances, whilst there may be exceptional failures, it is found that as a rule there is something like a yearly average, which under normal circumstances does not vary much from one year to another, or at anyrate to the extent generally assumed. Individual profits may influence the balance sheet. What we have, however, to consider is the margin that remains as profit after everything has been paid for. Too often people are mistaken by what may be termed the exceptional, forgetful of the fact that there are gross and not net profits. It is the net profit which has to be kept in view. As an example; if a hundred hens are kept upon any place, say, for egg production, it will be found there is very considerable variation, even though all are bred from the same parents, under tlte«same conditions, and reared and kept in the same manner. Some of these will yield a high average, others will be low in productiveness. This has always been the case, and probably always will be, though it may be modified to some extent. Whether that modification is a question of breed or of change of environment is a question of some consideration. What we talk about, however, are high records, and in a great many cases say nothing about the low records. That may be useful for certain reasons, but it ultimately means “comparatively little.” The exhibitor who wins a cup or trophy at his club show or one of the big open shows advertises the fact. We can hardly expect him to advertise the exhibitions at which he is beaten. Such is human nature. Yet it is more than probable that the yearly profit made by the exhibitor is dependent only to a limited extent to the prizes gained, and is influenced greatly by the way in which he can get rid of the birds that are of smaller value. I well remember the year previous to the great world’s conflict, when, in spite of winning the International Trophy and Championship at the last Crystal Palace show, and selling the winning White Leghorn cockerel for £42, and several other specimens at £5 to £lO each, our average return per bird worked out at less than 25 shillings each. No doubt, as anyone can see, the higher valued specimens helped to raise the average, but in the main their influence was much less than has been supposed. It is the mean average of the whole that is the factor we have to record. Recurring to the hundred hens, it will frequently be found that if these lay, say, 150 eggs in the first twelve

months, there will be probably , ten or more that will lay less than a hundred. I What, therefore, we wish to learn is the average of the whole. We have often thought that if any breeder who is selling stock birds would give boldly every year the actual average over his entire flocks, he would in this way gain the confidence of purchasers to the extent not now realised, and avoid the disappointments and discontent which often arises among those who purchase from high record strains. , Similar observations may be made with regard to incubation. Many breeders will sometimes have had machines that averaged practically 100 per cent, of chickens from fertile eggs. It is impossible to say why that should be so. Two machines of the same kind working side by side with, apparently, eggs from the same source, will vary enormously in the percentage of chickens bx-ought out, and what is very often the case, if these two incubators are used again the records may be exactly reversed. What is true in that direction is equally so with hens. We must keep in view the poor as well as the good records. These form part of the year’s work, and must be included. We are not very fond of what are sometimes known as corrected averages, by which is meant that in estimating the work certain factors which have led to a reduction of returns are corrected. That is not business. A man’s bad debts influence the annual balance sheet, and if anything goes wrong with machinery or stock it has to be taken into account. What, therefore, we want to know, and it is necessary to repeat it, is the season’s average. In all experiments records should not be given as to monthly prices of birds, but the average for the whole year. These experiments .would be most valuable in showing the right way of approaching these various questions by striking the mean of the entire twelve months. We have known cases in connection with poultry where remarkable successes have been made throughout the year, but at the end of twelve months the balance sheet came out on the wrong side, due in some measure to failure of realisation that it is the average we have to aim for. The application of what is here stated must be obvious to all, and need not be enlarged upon. At the same time, I have no wish whatever to discourage the attempts to realise high records, either in breeding or, incubation, or in other branches of the judustry. If their purport is fully understood they should have the effect of influencing poultry-keepers to strive for improvement. If we had never heard of the 300-egg hen, the probabilities are that many people would have been content with the 150-egg hen. It is a fair question for argument that if one bird can accomplish a certain thing, others ought to be able to do the same. That may be specious, as in fact it is, still, at the same time, it has a considerable effect. We must, however, remember that we are dealing with living creatures that cannot be moulded, as may certain forms of inert material. There are influences at work of which we know very little, and which frequently upset all our calculations. What should be done, however, is to realise that tendencies in one direction are , very often met by the reverse influence, and if we have hens that are highly productive, some of their sisters will be far below the line. There is a strange fascination about the abnormal,, whatever form it takes. We all admire exceptional men and women, whether they be prize-fighters, politicians, or painters. It is not so much what they do, but that

there is more of it. Unless these geniuses are constructive, leaving something behind that is helpful to the race, some permanent impress, they are of little good, save, perhaps, that of inspiration or of amusement. They may afford a transitory pleasure and nothing more. . - So with the* “break-the-record” hen, whose fame; is heralded all over the world, unless she can pass .to the next generations something of the same quality, her value is very meagre indeed. So far as we know, hens have neither imagination nor the spirit of emulation. If one hen in a flock lays herself almost to death her companions neither know nor care. Therefore there is no copying of example as in human experience. Her influence must be exerted through the progeny, or it is useless. It must not (as previously pointed out) be thought there is any desire to suggest we should not put forth every effort to increase the average productiveness of our fowls. That is a necessity. This will be best accomplished by those which are above the mean of the race. “All groups of living things vary around an average or mean as regards each of their characters, and those near the average are always numerous, while as we approach the extremes in cither direction the numbers become less and less.’’ The question of averages is one that requires to be preached constantly, and especially to those who are newbeginners in the poultry industry. Many people have been misled by hearing of what abnormal hens have done than probably in any other way.