Current Topics

New Zealand Tablet, 1 July 1915, Page 21

Current Topics

The Russian' Retreat - '% Ti. 3 .' r ; ■■-?-•« v # . # * •| j In commenting a fortnight ago on the Russian rout in Galicia, we expressed the opinion that an army like that of Russia, which has shown such conspicuous bravery and tenacity, does not maintain an unbroken and continuous retreat unless something has occurred which makes resistance absolutely impossible; and we suggested that the ‘ something ’ in this case was a breakdown of the ammunition supply. Nothing has appeared in our cables on the point, but American files to hand definitely confirm this view. . From these we learn that a member of the German Embassy at Washington openly stated that the German Government had positive information that the Russian onslaught upon Hungary had failed through lack of ammunition. The Russian supply of ammunition, he said, both for artillery and rifles, had given out and the Russian Army was virtually reduced to a mob which fled when attacked. In Russia, at least, there will be fervent prayers for success at the Dardanelles. Austria and Italy From the detailed statements made bv Dr. Von Bethmann-Hollweg in the Reichstag on May 18, it seems clear that Austria offered very substantial and farreaching concessions to Italy in order to avoid a rupture. The proposed concessions were thus outlined by the Imperial Chancellor: ‘First—Part of the Tyrol inhabited by Italians was to be ceded to Italy. Second— The western bank of the Isonzo, in so far as the population was purely Italian, and the town of Gradisca likewise was to be ceded to Italy, Third—Trieste was to be made an imperial free city, receiving an administration which would insure the Italian character of the city and to have an Italian university. Fourthltalian sovereignty over Avona (a seaport of Albania) and a sphere of interest belonging thereto to be recognised. Fifth—Austria-11 ungary declared her political disinterestedness regarding Albania. Sixth— The national interests of Italians in Austria to Ire particularly respected. Seventh —Austria-! f to grant 1 amnesty to political military prisoners belonging to the ceded territory. Eighth—The further wishes of Italy regarding the general question to be assured every consideration. —Austria-Hungary, after the conclusion of the agreement, to give a solemn declaration concerning the concessions. Tenth—Mixed committees for the regulation of the details of the concessions to be appointed. Eleventh—After the conclusion of the agreement Austro-Hungarian soldiers,' natives of the occupied territories, shall not further participate in the war. The offers were strengthened, at least on paper, by a definite guarantee from Germany. ‘ I can add,’ continned the Imperial Chancellor, that Germany, in order further to strengthen the understanding between both her allies, undertook, with the full agreement of the Vienna Cabinet, to give a full guarantee for the loyal fulfilment of these offers. Germany and AustriaHungary herewith formed a resolution which, if it should lead to result, would, 1 firmly believe, find an overwhelming majority in the three nations.’ \ * This Reichstag deliverance, it will be noted, was made before the actual declaration of war by Italy. The offers read well on paper : and though they fell somewhat short of the actual demands made by Italy, a compromise could doubtless have been arranged without much difficulty had the territorial question been the only matter at issue. But the crux of the situation lay in the fact that, even with the guarantee of Germany thrown in, Italy had no confidence, and no real assurance, that Austria’s apparently generous promises would be fulfilled. Italy therefore insisted that any cession of territory that might be agreed upon should take effect immediately : Austria, on the other hand, declared that for. many reasons it would be impossible

to transfer any territory before the end of the present war. Out of that -deadlock- there was no way of escape; and it was" natural’ that, in view of ’'Germany’s-' clearly : defined attitude towards ‘scraps of paper,’ Italy shouldnot feel justified in taking any chances. It is one of the gravest and most deplorable of the results of Germany’s repudiation of her pledged word'and solemn obligations that the whole fabric of international faith and confidence has been undermined. The Allies and the Balkan States The diplomats of the Triple Entente have a heavy and difficult work on hand in the endeavor to bring the Balkan States into line, but at least the task before them is fairly clear and plain. The cause of the present deadlock—if that is not too strong a wordcan be definitely traced to the breakdown of the Balkan League in 1913, and to the unjust settlement which was then imposed by the Powers; and the immediate task before the diplomats would seem to be to bring about the restoration of that alliance, and to give satisfactory guarantees for the reparation of the injustice then

committed. The inauguration of the Balkan League is said to have been due to the initiative of the present far-seeing and statesmanlike Premier of Greece, M. Venizelos. In the autumn of 1911 there had been rumors of a movement in Turkey for the establishment of a Great Balkan Federation, in which Turkey was to be the leading spirit. The antagonism between Turkey and the smaller States proved too great for any advance with this project, but the latter began to lay aside their mutual jealousies, with the result that the now famous Balkan League was formed between Bulgaria, Servia, and Greece, with the object of taking advantage of the weakness of Turkey after the Italian war, and freeing Macedonia from Turkish rule. The terms of the alliance were said to be purely defensive, that is, the three States agreed to guarantee the integrity of each other’s dominions, and to take the field in common should any of the three be attacked.. According to some authorities the League dated from the autumn of 1911; other statements give September 30, 1912, as the date of its formal establishment. It was clearly intended to be a permanent military and political organisation : but unfortunately, as it has turned out, it broke down in the Balkan wars of 1912-13. Of the former members of the League, the present recalcitrant is Bulgaria; and the reason for that country’s discontent is well pointed out in Messrs. N. and C. R. Buxton’s excellent little volume on The W a'r and the Balkan* (George Allen and Unwin) : ‘ What is now the south-eastern corner of Serbia should have gone to Bulgaria as a result of the first Balkan war, and until it goes back to her Bulgaria will remain irreconcilable.’ * , Messrs. Buxton find the real obstacle to any agreement in the refusal of any Balkan State to surrender an inch of territory that has once come into its hands each is afraid of the numbers of its neighbours and sticks to every handful of population—of whatever nationalitywhich it can appropriate. This being the case, the only hope of a settlement, in Messrs. Buxton’s opinion, lies in vigorous action by the Powers. ‘They should formulate a scheme themselves, and present it to the Balkan States, with the guarantee that it would be carried out after the war in the event of the Allies’ victory. Such a guarantee the Balkan Stateseven Bulgariawould probably trust, though Bulgaria has had cause to beware of treaties. The outline of the

settlement is clear enough. Bulgaria would obtain the lost Macedonia from Serbia, Kavalla from Greece, part of the Dobrudja, taken from her after the second Balkan War, from Roumania, Adrianopie from Turkey. Greece would receive Smyrna, Roumania would gain Transylvania, Serbia would enter into Bosnia and much more. Each Government would be able to sweeten the proposed' surrender of territory to its own people by. showing what: it . was ,to gain. And the settlement,’; while , re-creating Balkan unity, would be founded in justice, and would furnish some hope of permanent’

peace to a sorely distracted region.’ The authorities quoted are emphatic in their opinion that the Allies must promptly and vigorously attempt the development of some such programme as that which has been outlined. ‘Whether'the Powers would be completely or quickly successful il they put forward such a scheme no one can say. Put it is at least clear that they ought to have a, scheme and to try it, and not leave everything to chance and the venture at the Dardanelles. ? Our diplomacy has not so far been very successful, and it is time it came to the assistance ol our arms. Difficult as the question is made by the intense mutual jealousy and suspicion of the Balkan States, it is of such immense consequence to the fortunes of the Allies that they cannot own defeat without grave discredit to themselves. A League which has existed once can surely be built up again if the causes which brought about its fall are removed.’ Late cables indicate that Germany is making extraordinary efforts at Sofia, Bucharest, and Athens, and that the battle of the diplomats is being keenly and hardly fought.

German Reserves- and their Limit

Even before the war, Mr. Hilaire Belloc was regarded as one of the three cleverest young men in London, and the war has given him a unique oppor--1 unity fox displaying his wide knowledge and exceptionally versatile talents. He has taken full advantage of his chances; and has now won a place in the verv foremost rank of popular writers upon the war and its final issue. His articles show common sense, sound judgment, and at least as accurate knowledge of the facts as can bo found otherwhere: and they are marked by a note of reasoned optimism, which inspirits and encourages without at the same time raising undue or extravagant hopes. Such a characteristic is particularly welcome at a time when the Russians are almost helplessly on the run through lack of necessary war material, when the situation in Sweden is beginning to look nglv, and when we are just getting -through English ’ and American files—our first full information regarding the unspeakable stupidity and muddle-headed ness with which the British War Office has managed, or rather mismanaged, the munitions department.

Mr. Belloc's latest article in Lam! and IValf-r expounds to us the significance, or insignificance, of any merely local oi incidental successes gained !>y the enemy : and is certainly in its main contention very reassurin'"-. Mr. Belloc's contention is that unless the enemy can pierce the Allied line in the west, In must, no matter what isolated successes he achieves, face ultimate failure. No local successes,' he writes, ‘no flattening of this salient, or recapturing of that position, no slight advance due to his last accession in numbers, can benefit the enemy at all towards his immediate and only useful end, which is simply the breaking of the Allied line. If it does not break that line he has done nothing: and if his attempt, to break through Jails, then after" it has failed he will be in a worse position to meet the final Allied offensive than he was before. Not only will he be weaker from losses, but. he will know that he has now no further reserves to put in the field during the summer. Now, if we admit 800,000 as the maximum figure of men which Germany can' train at any moment, it was to be expected that, in the course of the Avar, three principal access; of strength would be apparent in the forces of i lie German Emnire alone exclusive of those of its ally. Upon (he appearance of the third of these accessions of strength the last effort of the enemy would have h-en launched and no more was to follow. In the face of (he enormous losses which Germany has been suffering, this last accession of strength would not bring the enemy to anything like the superiority which he had over the Allies dim no- the wmtei, but it would provide an immediate increase of strength available at this or that striking point: the effects of such a sudden reinforcement would be clear. It is evident that we are now entering this period - of the thud and last accession of strength to the enemy.

lie is using a very considerable proportion of his new length in Flanders and upon other points on the Western front. And! that is. the explanation of all the news that wo have been receiving during ; the last few days. We may expect, first the element of surprise, then lepeatcd attacks in close formation and losses far superior to those of the defence. The enemy cannot but play now for very high stakes, and attempt; at a great expense of men, to obtain conditions as favorable as possible upon which to conclude what he calls' “an honorable peace”—that is,, a draw. But by the very use of this-method .he will, if he fails to achieve his object, find himself -in a much worse position after that failure than before, for he is going to use what he knows to be his last reserves and he has already begun lo put them into the field. The measure of our success and of his failure in the next couple of weeks will be his ability oi inability to get through. If he does not get through, no local advance, no "capturing of a few pieces here or there, or even of positions with which recent encounters have made us familiar, can have the least effect upon the final result.’ * Mi • Belloc sums up the position in the following vivid and clinching paragraph : ‘To put the matter baldly, supposing the Germans were within a week in possession of the ruins of Ypres: suppose . that they retook the spur of Les Epurges : suppose that these continually arriving new members took back the whole of the belt which the French have gained during the spring in Champagne: suppose they retook, one by one, the heights of the Vosges and reached the passes of those mountains, as they have already retaken the summit of the Haweilerkopf—suppose all this. It would not bring the ultimate success of the enemy nearer by an inch index* the effect produced upon civilian opinion should give the enemy politically what he could not achieve in the field.’

The Ammunition Question

Judging by the elaborate and extensive arrangements which are being made for the supply of arms and ammunition -and particularly the latter— the Allies are preparing lor a campaign on a positively gigantic scale. Apart from the speeding up and general hustle movement which is being carried out in England by Mr. Lloyd George, the Allies have lately placed literally enormous orders in the United States. For example: A contract for delivery of five million shells to England, France, and Russia has just been signed by the, American Locomotive, New York Air Brake, and Westinghouse Electric Companies. The American Locomotive Company is to supply two million five hundred thousand of the shells called for by the contract, and the New Turk Air Brake and Westinghouse Companies'will divide the rest of the order. Each shell costs, roughly, about £2 15s: so that this single contract will call for a payment of £13,000,000. Russia, whose shortage of munitions has already cost her dear, is anxious to place immense orders for shrapnel beyond the contract just referred to. It is estimated that negotiations with American manufacturers, under way or practically closed, call for between ten and fifteen million shells. Delivery of such a huge amount of ammunition as fifteen million shells would entail the ultimate payment of something like ,£40,000,000 by Russia. The big American companies are either enlarging their plants or arranging sub-contracts in order to meet the demands of this death-dealing business. From Milwaukee comes the information that the Allis-Chaliners Company has closed a contract with the Bethlehem Steel Company which is now booked beyond the full capacity of its plants, —to turn out close to ten thousand shrapnel forgings every working day. The contract is to run over a prolonged period. This company is already making several thousand shells a day and new plants are being hastily installed to take advantage of contracts now being placed. The AllisChalmers Company shortly will have... a capacity in excess of ten thousand shells a day.

Other companies receiving orders for - the .supply of „ ammunition are extending plants so as to be in a position promptly to fulfil the business offered. The Baldwin Locomotive Company, whose plants are to be given over largely to the manufacture of war material for many months to come, has given out contracts for steel for new buildings, with the understanding that the work on these buildings may be started within ten weeks. On the other hand, instead of extending*its present plants so as to be in a position readily to turn out great quantities of rifles for which it has signed a manufacturing contract, the Westinghouse Electric has exercised options on the plants of the Stevens Arms and Stevens-Duryea Companies. Senator Nathaniel Curry, President of the Canadian Car and Foundry Company, has made public details concerning the distribution by his firm of sub-contracts connected with the manufacture of a large order for shells. The order amounted to £16,500,000, according to statements that have not been denied, and was placed by the Russian Government. ‘ There are about fifty companies in the United States,’ said Senator Curry, ‘ and about ten companies in Canada engaged in the manufacture'of different parts of shrapnel and explosive shells. These orders have been split up among companies in the Eastern and Middle Western States and throughout Eastern Canada.’ As has been mentioned, the Westinghouse Company has exercised its option to purchase the Stevens Arms and Tool Company and the StevensDuryea Automobile Company ; and in these plants one million rifles will be turned out, with the possibility that, a second contract for a like amount may be placed soon. * Apropos of the subject of America and ammunition, it is interesting to note that the trade in munitions does not appetir to have been in the least degree interrupted, much less checked, by the sinking of the Lusitania. Exactly a week after that deplorable occurrence, the White Star Line steamship Cymric, 13,098 tons, left New York for Liverpool with a cargo of war materials that made her little less than a floating arsenal. The items included 4301 cases of cartridges, three cases of pistols, 1750 shells (probably shrapnel shells), 1152 empty projectiles, 10 cases of firearms, 36 cases of percussion fuse, 17,740 bars of copper, 156 coils of copper, 95 reels of copper wire, 6505 cases of sheet brass, 698 cases of brass rods, 2042 plates of spelter, and 1562 cathodes (negative poles or electrodes of galvanised batteries). There were also 140 automobile trucks, and numerous cases marked ‘ hardware,’ though exactly how much each case contained of the articles enumerated would not be made public until some time later, after the manifest had been officially audited. The captain stated quite openly that he would take the direct course to Liverpool (the one the Lusitania took) and expected to pass through the war zone in about eight days, at a time when submarines are supposed to be blind.’ Including the crew of four hundred, there were about one thousand people on board, but apparently no Americans. It is curious that the Lusitania, containing nearly two hundred American passengers, should have been torpedoed on the ground that she carried some ammunition amongst her cargo, and that the Cymric, having no American passengers, and laden almost exclusively with ammunition, should have succeeded in reaching port unharmed.