The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, JANUARY 14, 1909. THE CHANCES OF WAR

New Zealand Tablet, Volume XXXVII, Issue 2, 14 January 1909, Page 61

The New Zealand Tablet THURSDAY, JANUARY 14, 1909. THE CHANCES OF WAR

OR a long time past it lias been generally recognised that so far as Britain is concerned the real danger-spot amongst the nations of "the Continent is Germany, and scarcely a year passes in which alarmist talk about the possibility of "vvar is not more or less rife. The cry of ' Wolf, wolf ' has been raised so often, without adeqxiate cause, that there is a danger of the warning falling unheeded at the very time when it is really needed. For it would be idle to deny that at the present moment the European outlook is decidedly ominous and the peace of Europe is really in danger. A single straw falling- in a given way may be the result of a chance draught, but a number of straws all falling in the same direction are generally taken as indicating fairly conclusively in what direction the wind blows; and the weight of the following considerations lies in their cumulative force. ■

What, then, are the considerations which lead thoughtful people to scent danger in the existing situation? They are four in number. (1) There is the fact that the highest military authorities in England — the men whose duty it is> to keep their ear to the ground and catch the first hint of coming trouble — are uttering impressive warnings to the Government and the people as to 1 the urgent danger of invasion. A month or two ago an .expert pointed out the significant fact that by means of air-ships of the Count Zeppelin type Germany could land 150,000 men in England in a single night. Only six weeks ago Lord Roberts moved in the House of Lords : ' That in the opinion of this House the defence of these islands necessitates the imme-

diate attention of his Majosty's Government to the provision, in addition to a powerful navy, of an army so strong in numbers and so efficient in quality that the most formidable foreign nation would hesitate to attempt a landing on these shores.' He bewailed the lack of response to his warnings, and expressed - a fear that the awakening would one day be tremendous. It was hopeless to expect any improvement in our home Army so long as the false belief of security from invasion so widely prevailed. He mentioned, that investigations made by .himself and Lord Lovat showed that there were available >n German ports all the year round ships sufficient to convey 200,000 soldiers. This fleet 'and force, he stated, could be collected at almost any time of the year without fuss or mobilisation in an exceedingly brief space of time. He further pointed out that in England at the present time 80,000 Germans had their home, the majority being trained soldiers, and said that if ever a German force landed on our shores it would have the benefit of such reinforcements 'as no invading army had ever before enjoyed. Lord Roberts is no scare-monger, ■ and would never have given public utterance to such sentiments were he not absolutely convinced that there is to be a day of reckoning for England and Germany in the not too distant future.

(2) There is the known hostility of a large and influential section of the German people. -We quite believe that the Socialist element in the population — a fair proportion of what are commonly called ' the masses ' — are not unfriendly to England, and we have no doubt Herr Singer was perfectly correct when, in a* recent debate in the Reichstag, speaking for the Socialists, he remarked that for the Emperor 'to say that wide sections of the German people were hostile to Great Britain was to fly in the face of the actual facts. It was exactly as if the Emperor lived in the clouds.' Of the feeling of the people generally, however, the Emperor is- a particularly good judge; and unless he is a sort of royal Ananias, German hostility to England must be deep and intense. In the now notorious interview, published in the Daily Telegraph — the absolute accuracy and authenticity of which is beyond question — the Kaiser, while himself professing to have been England's friend during the Boer war, admitted that German opinion was hostile — ' bitterly hostile.' Had he permitted the Boer delegates to come to Berlin, he said, ' the German people would have crowned them with flowers.' And this, so to speak, chronic antagonism is at the present moment being fanned into flame by systematic misrepresentation as to the attitude and feeling of the English people towards Germany. Prince V m Biilow, in a speech full of calculated indiscretions delivered in the Reichstag on November 20, spoke of a ' change of feeling ' in England, and attributed it tb ' jealousy ' of Germany's . commercial progress. The Peaph's Calendar for 1909, issued for gratuitous distribution by the Imperial Association for- combating Socialism, labors the same point. We are indebted to the columns of our Dunedin evening contemporary for the following quotation from the document : 'In the past year [i.e., 1908],' says the Calendar, 'there was much talking and muttering. The English, who have so long dominated the tr^de and commerce of the world, see with jealousy and envy that we Germans are following closely on tlfeir heels. . . . They seem now to cherish no small desire to annihilate the German trading ships with the cannons of their warships, seeing that they are no longer able to, defeat them in open competition. The English would most assuredly have done this long ago but that they feared the consequences to themselves of adopting such a procedure.' The German press, generally, endorse this attitude. The latest issue of the Vossische Zeitung — the Berlin organ of the Liberal party — contains a most virulent attack on" Britain, and the burden of nearly all recent press utterances in the Fatherland is: 'England! There is the enemy.'

(3) There is the present hostility and petulance of the Emperor himself . We say ' present hostility '■ advisedly, because Avith a rapidly changing sentimentalist like the Kaiser it is impossible to know what he really feels and impossible to say where he will stand a Aveek from now. We do know, however, Avhat his present mood is, for he has himself let us into the secret. Having got into trouble with his subjects because, in the Daily Telegraph intervieAv already referred to, he seemed too friendly to England, he has now supplied a corrective to that impression in the shape of a second intervieAv, revised by himself, and intended for publication in the Century Magazine. After the storm raised in the Reichstag by the publication of the Telegraph intervieAv, the American intervieAv Avas suppressed at the desire of the German Foreign Office on payment of a ' substantial consideration to the Century people. It had, however, been set up, and

a proof copy forwarded to London,, so the contents have, of course, leaked out. The chief points of the Kaiser's very candid deliverance are as follows : That King Edward has been humiliating him for more than two years, and that he was exasperated. That Germany was the Paramount Power in all Europe, and that England was trying to neutralise that power. That he held Prance in the hollow of his hand, and that Russia was, of no account since, the disastrous Avar with Japan. That if the panEuropean war, so much talked about, Avas* inevitable, ' the sooner it came the better for him, because he was ready and tired of the suspense. That the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was an iniquitous alliance against all the white races. That the only way to counteract this alliance was for Germany and America to act together at an early date or America would have to fight the Japanese in ten months' time. That in the event of a great Avar, England would lose many "of her large colonies, especially those in the Pacific. There is much more to the like effect, but what we have quoted is amply sufficient to show that in his existing frame of mind the Emperor William assuredly does not make for peace in the present European complication. * (4) Finally, by far the most potent element as a probable factor in provoking international disturbance is .the Kaiser's recent personal humiliation in his <OAvn country. Surely neA^er before Avas an Emperor so snubbed and scolded in the face of the Avhole world as "was the Emperor William in the Reichstag on November 10, when the discussion on the notorious Daily Telegraph intervieAv took place. "Until that famous debate one could hardly have believed that a Kaiser could be soj abused.

' But -yesterday, the word of Caesar might

Have stood against the world : now lies he there, And none so poor to do him reverence.' The deputies mocked his claims to superior knowledge; they denounced his ' interview ' in all the moods aud tenses ; they ridiculed his assumption of political omniscience. His theory of the divine right of kings, declared Herr Heine, is ' a manifestation of arrogance, a fantastic imagining of a special and familiar personal relationship to God.' ' The continual interferences of " the movable factor " in our foreign policy compel foreign nations,' said Dr. Sudekum, a Social Democrat, 'to insure themselves against us.' The deputy was . promptly called to order for this reference to his Majesty, but he continued unabashed: 'But the time of the personal regime is over.' Even his faithful Chancellor condemned him, and declared that unless the Kaiser mended his ways and observed a necessary reserve in future neither he nor any other Minister could accept responsibility for his actions. Great Caesar had fallen indeed : never was a Kaiser in such deep abasement. At first sight it would appear that this crushing humiliation would strengthen the forces that make for constitutional government, and- would therefore tend in the direction' of peace. That this will be the ultimate result is more than probable; but in the meantime the Kaiser is not the sort of person to sit down under his humiliation. At present he is a severely criticised and greatly discredited ruler ; and recognising that, his natural impulse is to cast about for some coup by which he may regain his lost prestige. Almost instinctively he feels that he must have a great immediate success in Avar or policy, if enthusiasm for the monarchy is to be revived. After these bungling ' interviews,' by which he has offended nearly every Power in Europe, a master stroke of policy is impossible. The only other alternative is to rally all the anti-popular forces around " him — particularly the Army — and seek to restore the mana of the personal regime by means of a war. That some such train of thought is apparently passing through the Kaiser's disordered brainbox, his acts* since the publication of the Daily Telegraph interview and the tenor of recent cables would reasonably lead one to suppose. First came his American interview, intimating that if an international struggle were to come the sooner the better for him; .then the extraordinary outburst of Anglophobia in Austria, obviously fomented from Germany ; and, finally, the .latest cable, announcing the Kaiser's public approval of a sensational article in a German review, alleging the imminent danger of a joint attack on Germany and Austria, and discussing the best means of meeting it. As a matter of fact, both Germany and Austria are well prepared and entirely ready for a struggle; they are, indeed, almost in the position of the old African chief who said he Avas obliged to go { to war because he had got a barrel of gunpowder, and it was spoiling. It takes a good deal to bring about a European conflagration, but the facts all go to show that the l' German Emperor — the Mad Mullah of the world's politics — ' is certainly going the right way about it.