EUROPEAN COMBINATIONS.

New Zealand Tablet, Volume III, Issue 134, 26 November 1875, Page 7

EUROPEAN COMBINATIONS.

Etjkope is always changing its combinations, lmt its spirit remains just the same. When Austria. France, Russia, and Sweden combined against Prussia, Frederick tho Great beat them all. Since then there have been so ma,uy combinations that their mere mention would occupy several columns, The combinations under the first Napoleon were of an exceptional character ; for he first conquered a country, then compelled it to combine with him in compelling others to combine in similar manner. Obviously there is no principle of combination in Europe save that of political interest ; and since political interest is as changeful as the wind combinations must vary perpetually. Just at this moment there is no known combination, because the late war has made nations stand still. Every nation is thinking of itself, and does not want to fight anybody in particular ; but all eyes are turned on the two excited Powers which are resting from their terrible struggle, and everybody wonders what original combination may possibly grow out of the momentary calm. The only two Powers which seem to watch one another -with jealousy, if not with dislike, are the new German Empire and Russia. France is out of the field. For many long years ib will be impossible for France to think gravely of avenging the past. Let us hope that the interval which must elapse before France can resume any hostilities will give time for sound counsels of peace. Germany has just completed her new fortifications, intended as bulwarks against France, out of that money which was subscribed by Prance to indemnify Germany for beating her. France has to centemplate those impregnable citadels, reared on the Rhine and on tho Moselle, and paid for out of her own bitter fines for the luxury of being vanquished and maimed. It is not likely that France will forget the humiliation, even without " anniversaries of fc!e Jan." Such irritations require no trumpet. But Germany, which is complacent in her attitude towards France, is not happy in her contemplation of Russia. The huge Muscovite Empire has before now paralysed a Power quite as great as even the new German E mpire. Tlie first Napoleon marched an army, the greatest then in Europe, into the very centre of the Empire of Russia, but his ruin was the result, because the very greatness of Russia absorbed all the antagonism thrown upon it. | Russia is more powerful no »v than she was then; and what she is likely to become during the next fifteen years all military men speak of with awe. Even the German officers, who think themselves supreme, do not like the prospect of her growth. She may be some way off from Germany, but this only increases the difficulty of Germany in getting satisfactorily at her centre. Probably Germany would beat Russia if they were to fig-ht at the present time ; but, first, they would neither of them like to fight with such consequences on botii sides at st Jce ; and, next, there would be the question of alliances, which, in such a war, would be supreme in importance. France is nowhere in the military game ; she could do little more than make herself troublesome. Austria would shrink from such a struggle, for she has eight millions of subjects ; m Austrian Hungary who would probably side with the German Empire ; and her policy is that of clcvelopement, not of risking . great battles for little gains. The interest of Austria is to main- ; tain peace; for France peace is absolutely essential; but tenor fifteen years hence, when France has repaired, and when Russia • has developed all her strength, thero may be one more great war 1 for supremacy. This probability has been shown in a recent article , in ' Macmillan,' contributed by Colonel Charles C. Chcsney, and s entitled " The Military Future of Germany." 3 Meanv hile it is certain that Russia is getting ready on a- scale s which is positively alarming ; and it is equally certain that Ger- - many has the intention of not deteriorating in military prestige. A glance at the statistics of the two armies will show this with ; tolerable certainty. Germany has 469 battalions of infantry, 485 squadrons of cavalry, eighteen battalions of pioneers, and eighteen batallions of service corps. Acid to these the reserves, tho Landstrum, the Landwehr, and the navy, and we arrive at a total of 1,700,000 men, with annual entimates of .£20,000,000. Here it may be mentioned incidentally that the whole force of Austria is not more than half a million of men, Avhile her military expenditure may be roughly estimated as one half of that of the German Empire. It is needless to say anythingabout France, since her new army exists mainly on paper, and will exist there for a good many years. But Russia is so desperately in earnest in the race for military supremacy that while France spends thirty per cent, of her revenue on the reorganisation of her military system, and Germany no more than twenty-six per cent., Russia is spending thirty-six per cent.., and is fully prepared to spend more. Austria spends less than twenty per cent., so that she is evidently not bent on " glory." It is true that we have to remember in our estimate of German outlay that the fortifications, the re-arma-ments, the railways of Germany have been mainly paid for out of the French war indemnity ; so that perhaps, but for these items, the German and Russian empires would be about on a par in their outlay. But whai is the meaning of these two givi* empires vying in the magnitude of their armies ? We do rot beli 3ve that Germany has any fear of France, nor that she would think it necessary to be always armed to the teeth because uiere was vengeance on her border. Her fortifications, and a fair standing army, would suffice for her necessities on that score. She must have ulterior views, and indirect objects, in thus menacing all the Powers of Europe. It is the belief of Russian officers that Germany has the intention of fastening' a quarrel on Russia, uot at present, perhaps, but a fe^v years hence, or whenever the occasion may serve. Russia would not dare to attack Germany at present, though she would doubtlyss do her bust to defend herself; but there seems to be a spirit abroad throughout Russia which aims at reasserting that primacy which was claimed by the late Emperor Nicholas. Germany is aware of this; and whether Germany

merely acts on the defensive, or with aggressive idpas and intentions, no one is con. patent to guess. The preparations in Russia imp y moie tVa-n a desire to lie eqral to future emergencies. The real clanger los in the attitude of France in the event of a Ru^soPrussinn Avuv. France liy herself is nowhere, nor can she become dang-oroiis to Germany for ninny years; buf if Fran c and Russia should l'C simultaneously prepared, and should, simult meously operate against Germany, Uiu conflict would bo doubtful in Iho extreme,