THE CHICKEN-HEARTED

New Zealand Listener, Volume 37, Issue 948, 11 October 1957, Page 11

THE CHICKEN-HEARTED

Sir-vVarian J. Wilson’s arguments appear in some ways to be a little illogical. He first takes for granted that the results of parapsychological research are based on a "biased" selection of experimental results. If he really believes this, then surely the rest of his letter is unnecessary. However, he continues that the experiments have three main weaknesses. He states that the experimenter should be skilled in both mathematies and psychology,. It would be equally fitting to say that Listener correspondents on this subject should be similarly trained, or that one man could have conceived, built, and exploded the atom bomb (or perhaps it would be selfish not to share such a delightful toy). The other reasons deal with statistics. His arguments here are fascinating, but would not appre! to the student of permutations, Now Mr Wilson tells us that the chances of tossing five heads in a row are one in 32, whereas with six in a row they are one in 64. This is perfectly correet, But he attempts to give the impression that following the fifth toss we are more likely to toss a tail. The chances, of course, are still one in two. This is more easily demonstrated by simple arithmetic than by statistics. At each toss the chance of a head appearing is one in two. Thus in tossing six

heads on end the chances are one in $a2223582352 2 x 2.=- 64, Haying decried the statistical method in relation to parapsyehology, he appears to uphold it as applied to the cancer-smoking relationship, I feel that even J, B. Rhine would be a little suspicious of the material on which these statistics are based. To illustrate the difficulties that arise: We are told by the statisticians that so many people died of lung cancer in a certain year, and that this figure has steadily ircreased. At the same time we must be told that certificates as to the causes of death are often inaccurate documents; that when the medical profession become conscious of a certain disease more cases will be.diagnosed, and that some diseases increase on their own account for no obvious reason, Consequently the most definite conclusion we can reach is that it "seems likely" that lung cancer is increasing and that this increase is "probably" related to increased tobacco consumption. In fact the proof of the existence of a lung .cancer-smoking relationship appears on the whole less conyincing than Rhine’s experimental proof of extrasensory perception, Finally, Mr Wilson feels that knowledge on the cancer-smoking connection is of more use to humanity than the practical application of extra-sensory powers. Here he may be right. Perhaps it is better to increase a few lives by five or ten years, than to attempt to find out a little more about the latent powers of man’s mind. Present events would tend to show that even now man is morally and mentally unfit to cope with the amount of knowledge at his disposal, which really brings us back to the int of my original letter on "The Chicken-

Hearted." i

J.C.

HAYES

(Kamo).

(This correspondence its now closed.-Ed.)