World Wheat Shortade

New Zealand Listener, Volume 15, Issue 365, 21 June 1946, Page 8

World Wheat Shortade

° -- [RE world shortage of fats, meat, dairy produce and sugar has been long foreseen. It was hoped to offset them in great degree by increased cereal’ consumption. But now wheat itself has, with little warning, become desperately short. Why? Our contributor A.M.R., who recently dealt with the world meat shortage in the same way, has given us this diagramatic explanation, based on! official figures. The illustrations are by Russell Clark.

War Destruction ANY of Europe’s grain-fields became battlefields in’ 1944 and 1945. As one result, the pre-war grain harvest of 59 million tons (average) shrank to 45 million tons in 1944, and to 31 million tons in 1945. Meanwhile, for similar reasons, Burma, Siam and Indo-China, which normally export six million tons of rice, were themselves short. China, Japan, and the Philippines were 9.5 million tons short. India is four million tons short. Droughts . NORTH AFRICA’S 1945 harvest was 70 per cent. below normal; South Africa’s 40 per cent.; India’s 25 per cent. The four main. wheat-producing countries (Canada, United States, Australia and Argentina) grew only 764 million tons in 1944-45 as against 90 million tons in 1942-43. Their current forecast is for only 67.5 million tons. Higher Consumption \VITH prices for their produce higher, Indian peasants can afford to sell less of it and eat more themselves. With wages higher, the poorer classes in North and South America can also buy more-they used 19.3 million tons of wheat last year as against 16.6 million tons pre-war. To meet the world proteins and fats shortage, the Americas and Australia have increased their flocks and herds (e.g., In the U.S.A., pigs by 40 per cent., poultry by 33 per cent., cattle by 20 per cent.)-using 13 million tons of grain-feed last year against 4.5 million tons pre-war. The world’s population. is also increasing-by five million a year in India alone. a * % s\ N total, U.S.A., Canada, Australia, and Argentina exported 23.7 million tons in 1945. This was double their pre-war export. Nevertheless Europe, India, South Africa, North Africa, and the Far East need 32 ‘million tons. Therefore eight million tons must still come from somewhere if millions are not to die. Where Can it be Found? NIMAL feed can be, and is being, cut. In Britain, for example, pig and poultry-keepers, instead of having their war ration increased, are cut five-sixths below pre-war levels, despite increased flocks. This means inevitably less meat, milk, butter and eggs for the world. The extract rate of flour can be raised. In Britain it is now 85 per cent.; in U.S.A. and New Zealand, 80 per cent. Luxury uses of grain can be pared. In Britain, whisky manufacture has been cut by 57 per cent. (which is less than export demand), in Canada, by 50 per cent. Alternative foods can be usedfor example, more potatoes and less bread in New Zealand. ; * e* Ea EXT year’s prospects are no better. The world’s reserve wheat stocks of 45.5 million tons in 1943 had shrunk to 22 million by last year and are being

practically obliterated to meet the current need. Therefore only a combination of favourable circumstances can bring material improvement next year, Unfavourable. crops would spell disaster. Efforts to increase production are essential. er,