THE shape of the population of a country can be drawn from census figures. A future shape can also be predicted in broad terms from these statistics and certain assumptions made of future trends of birth and death rates. The pyramids above show in solid black the actual populations of 1940 for four major countries, and in barred outline the estimated size and shape of the populations in 1970. These predictions are based on several assumptions; for instance, that war losses will not change the calculations. But the pyramids show that, even without war, England and Germany face a rapid ageing of their populations. In another generation the bases of their pyramids will be eroded because the birth rates have declined and fewer children will have been born, and the age groups over 40 will swell as the present relatively large proportion of youth grows older. The war undoubtedly will hasten the ageing process. By 1970, the U.S.S.R. will be the only industrial nation in the world with a substantial. base of youth. Forty-five per cent. of the population is now under 20 years old; only 32 per cent. of Germany's population is in the same group. Japan, by 1970, will have begun to-follow the Western nations into old age, although she will still have heavy concentrations in the years fro, 15 to 45.

New Zealand Listener, Volume 12, Issue 309, 25 May 1945, Page 12

THE shape of the population of a country can be drawn from census figures. A future shape can also be predicted in broad terms from these statistics and certain assumptions made of future trends of birth and death rates. The pyramids above show in solid black the actual populations of 1940 for four major countries, and in barred outline the estimated size and shape of the populations in 1970. These predictions are based on several assumptions; for instance, that war losses will not change the calculations. But the pyramids show that, even without war, England and Germany face a rapid ageing of their populations. In another

generation the bases of their pyramids will be eroded because the birth rates have declined and fewer children will have been born, and the age groups over 40 will swell as the present relatively large proportion of youth grows older. The war undoubtedly will hasten the ageing process. By 1970, the U.S.S.R. will be the only industrial nation in the world with a substantial. base of youth. Forty-five per cent. of the population is now under 20 years old; only 32 per cent. of Germany's population is in the same group. Japan, by 1970, will have begun to-follow the Western nations into old age, although she will still have heavy concentrations in the years fro, 15 to 45.