THE SHAPE OF THINGS HAS COME

New Zealand Listener, Volume 12, Issue 309, 25 May 1945, Page 12

THE SHAPE OF THINGS

HAS COME

(Written for "The Listener’ by

A.M.

R.

iS — a nn — HIS title may sound foolhardy. For, as I write, the European war is only just over, while the San Francisco Conference has held only one session. But Conferences and Peace Settlements cannot do a great deal more (though unfortunately they often try) than officially register facts that have already arrived. While the armies have fought, other factors also have been shaping the future. It is of these, largely overlooked in our concentration upon the military struggle, that I write. The first and most important is the changing size and changing "shape" of populations. Just 150 years ago the envoy of George III. of England, sent to Chinato beg for trade facilities? received this reply from the Emperor; "Swaying the wide world, I am not interested in the manufactures of outside barbarians. . . . (Though) your reverence for our Celestial Dynasty fills you with a desire to acquire our civilisation, even your Envoy could not acquire the rudiments of our civilisation, much less transport them to alien soil. (Nevertheless), the earnest terms in which your Memorial is cast reveal a respectful humility on your part which is highly praiseworthy. It behoves you, O King, to respect my sentiments and to display even greater devotion in future so that, by perpetual submission to our throne, you may secure peace and prosperity for your country hereafter. . . . Tremblingly obey and show no negligence." Do not smile. Chien Lung ruled 400 million people and an immense territory. George Til. held practically nothing beyond two Atlantic islands with some ten million inhabitants. ‘Effects of Industrialisation It was the Industrial Revolution (as we call it, looking back) that changed the relevant positions of Britain and

China. For, whereas it has scarcely touched China even yet, it multiplied by. seven the number of Britons, increased their average standard of living several times over, and-by providing both industry and empire — extended their economic and political power many scores of times over. Industrialisation ‘appears always to have this effect. It has, for example, quadrupled Europe’s population despite last century’s overflow into North and South America. The causes of this upthrust are still being argued. But the increase seems partly to come from lowered infant (and general) mortality through improved sanitation and food, and partly because the new opportunities that an expanding community offers encourage people to have more children. The only Eastern land so far to be industrialised is Japan. There, despite poor national resources, the population has tripled in one long lifetime. Improved health services and trade have come to two other Asiatic areas, though without local industry, and accordingly India has increased by 51 millions in one decade and Java doubled in 40 years. But both India and China are now on the point of: enormous industrial expansion. Already India has the largest steel works in the British Empire and well over £1,000,000,000 sterling to invest after the war. The Chinese have cut-and-dried plans for outstripping Japan industrially in one generation, and United States industry is preparing to deluge capital machinery upon them. Whatever peace treaties are made we may see in 50 years 650 million Indians and perhaps even more Chinese.

Meanwhile in Europe population is set for decline. What effect the war will have had with its gigantic shifts of soldiers and workers, and its slaughters and privations it is impossible to predict. But in any case there are not sufficient potential mothers to do more than maintain population even if they produce considerably more offspring apiece than heretofore. And efforts to persuade parents to have more children have so _ far proved unavailing. Univereal family sllowancec

hele i ie ed ee ee are an thing it in 1 that they help to rear children as children should be reared. But they have not in practice greatly increased the number being born. Neither has propaganda, nor cash payments, nor the "honours" to mothers now being attempted in the U.S.S.R. The simiple fact is that as living standards rise family life becomes no.longer the only satisfying interest of the ordinary man and woman. They have other things witha

which to fill their lives, and accordingly frequent families of two or less bring populations back to the nearly static state in which malnutrition, disease, ‘hazard, and shortage of careers keep them in primitive communities. Germany, as definitely as France, is a declining community. Japan will probably never pass 90 millions. The United ‘(continued on next page)

(continued from previous page) States also looks like stabilising within the next 50 years at under 160 millions. Only Russia, among the non-Asiatics, will continue to increase-judging from the shape (see chart) of its population. Between the two wars, under a continuing revolution, it grew from 140 millions to 170 millions. If, as seems likely, it reaches 300 milliohs 50 years hence, it can scarcely fail to be the dominant state of the world. Millions Must Be Fed Population in itself, however, means merely weakness unless the material resources to support them in efficiency ate also present. India, for example, can continue only a sub-continent of misery and a mere pawn in international affairs so long as its millions continue ill-clad, illhoused, and ill-nourished. China likewise has been everybody’s orchard and is included among the Big Four only because all the world cultivates a million-aire-to-be. But industrialism, which expands population, expands living standards even faster. Better farming in the East will produce not only more for all, but more for each. In India it is the yield per acre that can stand most boosting (c.f. 800Ib. per acre of rice and wheat against 3000lb. per acre in Italy). In China, whose farming efficiency is greater than India’s, though still far below Western standards, the three-quarters of the country. that is still unfarmed may feed the 600-800 million er of half-a-century hencé. The faster agricultural and living standards rise, of course, the sooner will this coming upsurge of Eastern population become stabilised at a new level, as has already happened in the West. The faster world living standards reach one general universal level the sooner also will trade problems settle themselves. Continuing prosperity for any nation depends on its customers and suppliers continuing prosperous also. In concrete terms, only a well-fed and wealthy East can afford New Zealand’s butter and meat, for example. The century which saw Europe’s great population increase saw also Europe’s greatest expansion abroad. This opening century of Asiatic growth can scarcely fail to fill the world’s remaining empty (and cultivable) spaces. Already Javanese are hacking down the jungles of Celebes and Sumatra. Indians outnumber Fijians in Fiji. It is difficult to imagine how they can be shut out for ever from Africa. Africa indeed seems marked by nature and by p y to be India’s New World. ‘made Singapore in all but political control a Chinese city. They will spread through the Indies. Fleeing from invaders they have discovered their relatively empty South and absolutely empty West. And their present trickle of refugees into Central Asia (Sinkiang) must become a stream of permanent settlers after the war. ; Two New Races Russia-in-Asia is also expanding, as her continued resistance, after Russia itself had largely been occupied, made us aware. Not only has industry streamed

north and east (8 per cent. of Russian coal was in 1913 mined in Siberia; in 1937 38 per cent.), but population has increased twice as fast east of the Urals as west of them. The Soviet Far East, facing Japan, has doubled its people in the last 15 years. The occupants of these new territories are also becoming a new people, Russian mainly, but heavily mixed, to the Government’s delight, with indigenous Asiatic elements. When the process is complete, and when South America’s Indian-European mixture has finally settled, the world will have two new races. But that is the shape of a far distant future indeed.