C—3a

Zealand is now using in 1949 only just over 30 lb. per capita and Australia about 45 lb., as compared with 79 lb. in the United States of America. The trend requirements of the three countries are respectively 521b., 581b., and 661b. Graph 3 shows ■corresponding population trends. On a total consumption basis New Zealand and Australia are using respectively •only 24,000 and 150,000 long tons, compared with trend figures of 42,000 and 205,000 long tons. Independent support of these figures is forthcoming from one of the official publications of the Canadian Newsprint Association which estimates that, on a basis of unrestricted trade, New Zealand and Australia would require for 1949 37,000 and 224,000 long tons respectively, as compared with a likely restricted demand of 29,000 and 107,000 long tons. The discrepancies between the Forest Service and Canadian estimates are due in the -case of the New Zealand figures to the fact that current usage is less than anticipated by Canada, due to the interim worsening of the dollar exchange position, and the trend figure does not take account, as the Canadians may have done, of the prevailing tendency -among New Zealand newspaper-proprietors to favour smaller papers than pre-war. The Forest Service, however, inclines to the view that once ample supplies of all consumer goods are available pressure by advertisers is likely to increase requirements at least to trend levels. In the case of the Australian figures, current usage is higher than estimated by Canada, due to the fact that since the preparation of the estimates Commonwealth users have been able to purchase substantial extra quantities from Scandinavia. As to potential usage on an unrestricted demand basis, Australian newspaper authorities themselves estimate this at 300,000 long tons, which is well above the trend figure of 1205,000 long tons, but resembles the present United States of America usage, which is 14 per cent, above its trend figure. <{a) Shortage of Newsprint in New Zealand and Australia That the real significance of the preceding discussion on newsprint demand may best be gauged from the accompanying Table VI, which summarizes the various estimates used. It shows that New Zealand to the extent of between 8,000 and 18,000 long tons annually and Australia to the extent of between 55,000 and 150,000 long tons now go without newsprint due to currency difficulties, &c. Graph 4 further shows that over the period 1946-60 the average increase in annual tonnage required will vary for New Zealand from 1,000 tons for the expected natural increase in populaton alone to 2,000 tons for the natural plus a 2 per cent, immigrational increase, and for Australia •on the same basis 5,000 tons and 10,000 tons respectively. (b) Extra Newsprint Capacity Required in South Pacific That these figures also offer strong prima facie evidence that extra manufacturing ■capacity is required where both New Zealand and Australia may freely purchase newsprint ■even if normal international trading is not revived. At this stage in its argument the delegation uses the word " required " and not " warranted." Again as a complementary conclusion it would appear that with demand so much in excess of restricted supply, users should be prepared to pay a reasonable premium above world parity if this be essential in order to ensure the installation of extra local capacity.

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