H—34a

Table E—The Supply and Demand for Scientists

From the above figures it appears that we may be training too many science and agricultural graduates. It is important, therefore, to consider the accuracy and limitations of the data. In regard to accuracy, we consider first that the forecast of the numbers of students likely to graduate during the next five years is a very conservative one. This is confirmed to some extent by the application of the projection formula to the year 1947. Our projection gives the probable number of scientist graduates as 188, whereas actually the number who graduated was 221. Even if 1947 was an exceptional year the difference in figures indicates that our formula is unlikely to exaggerate the number of'students who will graduate in future years. The only other factors in the above table in which any error could lie are — (a) Additional staff required by employers. (b) Wastage of scientists between 1948 and 1952. (c) Number of graduates not available for scientific employment. The additional staff required by employers is based entirely on figures furnished by employers themselves. Appendix I gives the scientific labour force at five-yearly intervals, together with anticipated staff in 1952. In the form of index numbers (1927 = 1) the increase in the scientific labour force, excluding State post-primary .schools but including existing vacancies (286), is as follows :

The scientific labour force took twenty years to increase 7-2 points, and an increase of 2-5 points is estimated to take place during tlie next five years. This increase probably indicates a somewhat wider demand for the services of scientists in the future, and cannot be regarded as disproportionate. The second factor, wastage, has been dealt with on page 10 and it is considered that the wastage as estimated in the table is reasonably accurate.

17

— Estimated Additional Staff Required by 1952. Estimated Wastage Between 1948 and 1952, Inclusive. Estimated Total Additional Staff Required by 1952. Estimated Number of Bachelor Graduates Between 1948 and 1952. Estimated Number of Bachelor Graduates Between 1948 and 1952, Less 10 per Cent. Apparent Excess or Deficit of Scientists. Science 1 661 385 1,046 1,362 1,226 180+ Agriculture 79 30 109 195 176 67+ Home science .. 26 100 126 102 92 34Totals .. 766 515 1,281 1,659 1,494 213+

1 1927. 1947. 1952. 1 8-2 10-7