H—ll

(11) The following table shows the estimated distribution of the labour force over industry at 15th October, 1947, by which date the flow of persons back from the Armed Forces had virtually ceased :

Estimated Distribution of Labour Force at 15th October, 1947

(12) In order to get some impression of probable changes of size and distribution of the labour force in the immediate future it is necessary to analyse briefly recent changes in it. During the year ended October, 1947, the male labour force was augmented by 8,300 men, of whom 4,900 were released from the Armed Services, 1,700 represented the natural increase in the population of working age, and 800 were a net increase due to immigration. Over the same period the female labour force increased by 1,100, a natural increase of 1,000 and an increase of 600 due to immigration being offset by further withdrawals of women from the labour force through marriage and other causes. (13) Of the total increase of 9,400 persons, secondary industries gained 5,400, transport 2,100, distribution and finance 2,600, and domestic and personal services 300. Primary industry, on the other hand, lost 800 workers, and public administration and professional services lost 200. (14) The only sources of substantial additional workers are the natural increase in the population of working age and net immigration of workers. The natural increase in the population of working age is likely to be small over the next few years. The male population between the ages of fifteen and sixty-five years is increasing at approximately 1,500 per annum, the inflow at age fifteen remaining (in spite of its reduction due to the low birth-rate in the early 1930'5) higher than the outflow at death or attainment of age sixty-five. The female labour force is likely to decrease for five years at least. The reduced inflow of juveniles has a more noticeable affect on the female labour force, which has relatively a much higher juvenile content than the male labour force. The net effect, apart from immigration, will probably be an increase of 1,000 in the total labour force in 1948, followed by an increase of 500 in 1949. With the increased availability of shipping the net gain from immigration is likely to be more substantial in future and the probable increase can be set at about 2,600 workers in 1948 and about 4,000 in 1949, making a total gain in the labour force of 3,600 persons in 1948 and 4,500 in 1949. Manufacturing industries and the wholesale and retail trades are likely to be the strongest competitors for this increase. (15) The probable increase in size of the labour force is comparatively small and is unlikely to do much to relieve the existing labour shortage. Selected immigration will, in some measure, provide a means of distributing labour more effectively over

5

Industrial Group. Revised Estimate of Number of 1 Males. Females. Primary industry Secondary industry Transport and communication Distribution and finance Public administration and professional Domestic and personal services All industries Armed Forces Unemployed Total .. 164,700 174,500 61,300 71.300 45.700 15,600 13,300 43,500 6,400 36,900 42,500 25,800 533,100 8.500 100 168,400 500 541,700 168.900