H.—29a

It will be seen that the population increased throughout the period, but that the rate of increase lias slowed down in recent years. For the first fifteen years the average annual increase was 1,986, while for the second fifteen years it was 1,200; and for the last five years it was 760. It is possible that in the last few years the war has had an adverse effect. It is perhaps reasonable to anticipate that by 1960 the population will have grown to 150,000 or, even, 160,000. As in other areas, the number of school-children living outside the area for whom supplies are drawn from within the area and the volume of shipping for which liquid milk is purchased from metropolitan vendors may bo expected to develop, in correspondence with the growth of population within the area. Eventually the members of the Allied Forces will be repatriated and at the same time the New Zealand men on service will return to their homes. It is impossible to state the exact effect of the changes from a state of war to a state of peace will have upon the population of any particular metropolitan area, but in' the Christchurch area the increase or decrease is not likely to be a substantial one. Consumption Particulars of the consumption of milk in the Christchurch area available to the Commission were meagre and unreliable. There were no returns comparable to those that were supplied by the Metropolitan Milk Council in Auckland or to those that were compiled by the Milk Devartment of the Wellington City Council. This, perhaps, was to be expected, but even the Hutt Valley pendors and the nearby farmers of the Wellington area readily furnished particulars that afforded a reliable basis for computation. This criticism does not apply to all vendors, and the assistance afforded in this connection by the largest vending companies is gratefully acknowledged. According to the particulars that were available it appeared that the average daily consumption of liquid milk supplied within or from the area to the ordinary civilian bopulation, to schools, and to the Armed Forces during the year 1942 was 11,144 gallons. Compared with the consumption in other areas, this is low and the figures cannot be complete. To the quantity consumed as liquid milk in the ways named has to be added the quantity required for cream, for ii;e- cream and for manufacturing purposes, and also the quantity of liquid milk delivered to shipping at Lyttelton. Judging by the quantities required for all purposes in other areas the total consumption in this area of milk in all forms and for all purposes is probably not less than 13,000 gallons per day or, say, 4,750,000 per year. Prospective Increase in Consumption As the particulars of the change from year to year or from period to period in volume of consumption are not available it is impossible to estimate with a reasonable degree of accuracy the prospective increase in demand during the coming years. The only guide is in the anticipated growth in population, taking into consideration changes in the demand for milk in schools and in the volume of shipping, and making allowance for the repatriation of Allied Forces in our camps and the return of the members of our own forces at home and abroad to civilian life. It is clear on the evidence submitted to the Commission that the people of New Zealand do not drink sufficient milk, and a higher consumption per head is being urged by the health authorities. The effect of enlightenment and authoritative appeal cannot be foreseen, but it is hoped that it will result in an appreciable increase in the demand in this and in other metropolitan areas. As the resources of an area ought to be organized in accordance with the prospective development in demand it is a matter of regret that the information available in the Christchurch area is so incomplete. Whatever action is taken, whether by central or local authority, and whether by public control or private enterprise, reliable information is necessary for intelligent guidance. It is probably a reflection of the unorganized condition of the industry in Christchurch that the information is so unsatisfactory. Organization The most distinctive feature of the milk industry in Christchurch is its lack of any comprehensive or well-ordered co-operation or guidance. It is .organized in the sense that it does supply the area with the milk that it demands, and in recent years has done so with less rationing or cutting-down of supplies than has obtained in other areas. It has its producers who own and control the dairy-farms on which the milk is produced ; its treatment houses where a certain portion of the milk is pasteurized and bottled ; its vendors and distributors by whom the milk, raw or pasteurized, loose or bottled, is sold and delivered to the consumers ; and its milk-shops and milk-bars to cater for special needs. But there is no one organization in which all producers can unite to improve the service they render and to advance their common interests; and there is no one body in which all vendors are united with similar objects. The producers have never succeeded in combining in one association. They have attempted to do so, but they have been divided into two groups according to the affiliation of the individuals with vendor interests. Recently an attempt has been made to induce all producers to unite in one effective organization. The vendors are drawn into two opposing and even hostile groups. There are, on the one hand, the vendors of pasteurized milk and, on the other hand, the vendors of raw milk. The first group (apart from the two partnerships referred to presently as constituting one producer-vendor) consists of three companies who sell pasteurized milk; two of these own treating-houses, while the third has the milk it vends pasteurized by the larger treating company. These three companies do the greater part of the wholesale trade of the area and a substantial part of the retail trade. They co-operate readily and exercise a considerable influence over the whole of the milk industry in the area. The vendors of raw milk have formed themselves into a fairly compact body and now have been joined by the main body of producer-vendors. Each of these two groups has discovered a dominating interest that is common to all its members. In the one case it is the interest in the sale of pasteurized milk and in the other case it is the interest in the sale of raw milk. And the conflict between these two interests is the basis of the organization, or disorganization, of the vendors in the area. There are two partnerships that together occupy a unique position. One partnership produces the milk; the other pasteurizes a considerable portion of it and distributes all the milk that the first partnership produces. The two partnerships are closely related in business, and for the purpose of our examination of the industry we have found it convenient to regard the two partnerships as one producer-vendor not identified in interest with any of the other organized groups. It has already been- stated that in all areas the industry has been and is dominated by commercial considerations as interpreted by the vendors. Christchurch affords the most striking example of this

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