13

H.—3l

The figures for the twenty-year period 1888-1907 show a decline in the proportion of births to every marriage in the preceding year from 514 to 3T5, as below :— Proportion of Births Marriages Legitimate to every Year. B ' Births. Marriage solemnised in the Preceding Year, 1887 ... ... ... ... 3,565 1888 ... ... ... ... 3,617 18,325 5-14 1889 ... ... ... ... " 3,632 17,845 4-93 1890 ... ... ... ... 3,797 17,675 4-87 1891 ... ... ... ... 3,805 17,635 4-64 1892 ... ... ... ... 4,002 17,283 4-54 1893 ... ... ... ... 4,115 17,514 4-37 1894 ... ... ... ... 4,178 17,824 4-33 1895 ... ... ... ... 4,110 17,711 4-24 1896 ... ... ... ... 4,843 17,778 4-32 1897 ... ... ... 17,911 3-70 , 1897 ... ... ... ... 4,928 1898 ... ... ... ... 5,091 18,154 3-68 1899 ... ... ... ... 5,461 18,006 3-54 1900 ... ... ... ... 5,860 18,640 3-41 1901 ... ... ... ... 6,095 19,554 3-34 1902 ... ... ... ... 6,394 19,734 3-23 1903 ... ... ... ... 6,748 20,835 3-26 1904 ... ... ... ... 6,983 21,737 3-22 1905 ... ... ... ... 7,200 22,600 3-24 1906 ... ... ... ... 7,592 23,120 3-21 1907 ... ... ... ... ... 23,937 3-15 If the average result be taken out for the ten years 1888-1897, it will be found to represent 451 births to a marriage. Dealing similarly with the figures for 1898-1907 the result is an average of 333, so that regarded anually or decenially there is a decided fall to be observed. In the Australian States a similar decrease is noticeable. New Zealand had in 1880 the highest birth-rate (4078); in 1900 the case was reversed; but in 1906 the New Zealand rate was higher than that of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. The movement over ten years is calculated as under: —

Birth-rates per 1,000 of Population.

This table shows that although New Zealand had in 1900 the lowest birth-rate in Australasia, the rate for 1907 was higher than that of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. A declining birth-rate is noticeable in many civilised countries, and attention has been drawn by statisticians and political economists to the serious consequences that may result. That fertility among women in New Zealand is decreasing, from whatever causes,- further facts will tend to show. Taking the number of married women in New Zealand at what may be considered the childbearing ages (i.e., from 15 to 45 yearS, inclusive) as shown by each census since 1878, and for the same years the number of legitimate births (excluding plural) registered, the birth-rate per 1,000 married women of the above-stated ages is easily found, and is shown to be steadily declining. In 1878 the rate was 337 per 1,000, in 1896 it had fallen to 252, in 1901 to 244, and in 1906 to 228; or, in other words, in 1878 one married woman of the ages specified in every three gave birth to a child, while in 1906 the rate was less than one in four. The figures for each census year are given below. Birth-rates (Legitimate) per 1,000 Married Women at Child-bearing Ages for each Census Tear, 1878 to 1906. Number of H . Birth-rate Married Women . f "^?l ofo per 1,000 Year (Census). between Bit™ Married Women 15 and 45 Years (oonfinements) . of from 15 to 45 of Age. v ' Years of Age. 1878 ... ... ... 50,995 17,196 3372 1881 ... ... ... 57,458 18,003 313-3 1886 ... ... ... 62,704 18,532 295-5 1891 ... ... ... 63,165 17,455 276-3 1896 ... ... ... 69,807 17,596 252-1 1901 79,406 19,355 243-8 1906 ... ... ... 98,211 92,352 227-6

State or Colony. 1898. 1899. 1900. 1901. 1902. 1903. 1904. 1905. 1906. 1907. Queensland New South Wales Victoria South Australia Western Australia Tasmania New Zealand ... 28-28 27-14 25-72 24-98 29-35 26-24 25-74 27-31 27-10 26-71 25-51 30-64 25-98 25-12 30-21 27-43 25-82 25-78 31-46 28-25 25-60 28-28 27-60 25-77 25-39 30-32 28-40 26-34 27-68 27-17 25-23 24-85 30-09 28-95 25-89 24-71 27-12 25-28 26-73 24-46 24-65 23-43 24-70 30-27 30-34 28-61 29-59 26-61 26-94 25-92 26-73 24-83 23-82 30-30 29-32 27-22 26-31 27-04 25-14 23-54 30-02 29-52 27-08 27-14 25-16 23-97 29-24 27-30 I