9

H.—l2.

been received from Grahamstown, and those for Lyttelton and Bluff, being only made out for six months, are not included in table 1. The percentages of correct forecast at these places are: Lyttelton, direction of wind, 84- 4; force of wind, 438 ; barometer movement, 65-5 ; and sea movement, 66"6. At Bluff, direction of wind, 807; force of wind, 529. But no result has been given for forecast of barometer and sea movement. The percentages of direction of wind and barometer movement are the best test of the value of the weather forecast, but the lower percentage of force of wind would at first appear to indicate that the warnings are sent out more frequently than is necessary; as, however, few places are exposed to all winds, it follows that, should gales come from directions from which many of the stations are sheltered, the force as given in the returns will be lower than would be the case under other circumstances ; but the barometer movement would be the same in either case, and therefore it is a truer test of the value of the work ; but this movement cannot always be anticipated under present circumstances. The forecast of sea movement is frequently sent, and the result is shown in the table. It is 8 per cent, less than that of last year, but the information afforded by this forecast has proved useful on the coast, and it is also of value in ascertaining whether the warnings have been issued on reliable data, for at times there is much sea on the coast though the wind remains moderate. The sea is thus an evidence that the disturbance was in our neighbourhood. This table also shows the proportion of gales which were experienced at each place without warning having been sent of their approach. These instances have in a great measure arisen from the interruption caused to the weather report by Sundays and holidays. The mean for the whole period is 04 per cent., as against LO9 of last year. At the foot of this table a mean value of each description of forecast is given. Return No. 2 shows the monthly result for the whole colony, the mean of which is found to be nearly the same as that for each place individually. No. 3is a comparative return. It shows the monthly result of each description of forecast during the same period in the last two years, and is very instructive. Returns No. 4 and No. 5 illustrate the manner in which the warnings are distributed, and show the result at each place. The warnings of the 17th May, 1878, comprised the whole colony, as the forecast showed the approach of disturbance of very large area; those of the 29th and 30th May show the manner in which the warnings are usually issued, the telegrams for the North being sent a day later than those for the southern districts. About 30 per cent, only of the warnings are sent to places situated north of Napier. The remaining returns illustrate the manner in which the information sent to the various stations is returned to the central office. It is from such material that the accompanying returns of percentage value are derived, and I beg to draw your attention to the results of forecasts of high tides and cold weather, as shown in these returns, which will, I hope, be found worthy of perusal. As the results of the warnings are in all cases decided by the officers who receive them, it is hoped that they will be considered as unbiassed information. I have made no return of the result for Wellington, as I should have to make them out myself, and they might therefore be considered too favourable. The results for New Plymouth may be considered the same as those for Opunake. During the past year the work of this office has on more than one occasion been favourably noticed by the Press, and for the last seven months daily forecasts have been published in the Wellington evening papers. From the experience already gained, I have no hesitation in saying that a daily forecast could now be sent to such other evening papers as care to publish it. The Press Agency would no doubt undertake to forward it; but, to insure the forecast being in time for daily publication at all other places, it will be absolutely necessary to have the report complete by 10 a.m. at the latest. To enable the morning papers throughout the colony to publish a weather forecast, a second complete daily weather report will be required at a later hour, as, under the present circumstances, so far as the morning papers are concerned, the interval between the completion of the forecast and its publication is so great that the information is of very little use. It has been a matter of much regret to me that the recommendation of the Committee on Weather Reporting last session was not confirmed, but in the interval I have received every facility from Dr. Lemon and the officers of the Telegraph Department. Since the latter part of June last the Government have afforded me the much-needed assistant, and, should this gentleman have higher remuneration offered to him than he receives at present, I have every hope that he will become efficient in the duties of weather forecast. During the last visit of H.M.S. "Wolverine" to this colony, Commodore Hoskins frequently availed himself of such information as I could afford him relative to probable changes in the weather, and was good enough to express himself very favourably as to the result of the forecasts received. R. A. Edwin, The Hon. the Commissioner of Customs. Commander R,N. 2—H. 12.