The Waikato Times MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1940. JAPAN’S NEW ALLIANCE

Waikato Times, Volume 127, Issue 21231, 30 September 1940, Page 6

The Waikato Times MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 1940. JAPAN’S NEW ALLIANCE

" The contracting parties agree to assist each other in the event of one being attacked by a Power not at present involved in the European or the Chinese conflict.” That is probably the most important provision of the 10-year military, political and economic pact signed by Germany, Italy and Japan. It is clearly intended as a warning to the United States, but it will be # surprising if it has the slightest dampening effect on the American policy. Mutual aid among Powers which have the misfortune to be placed so far apart, and kept apart by a superior naval Power, has not the same meaning as it might have in different circumstances. For all political purposes, Japan and Italy and Germany would have to fight two separate wars, if the position deteriorated to such an extreme, and the only assistance one group could give to the other would be through synchronising attacks. It would be wrong to suppose that Japan’s pact with Britain’s enemies necessarily means war with Japan. On the face of it, the pact is intended to operate if the United States enters the war, or if other circumstances favourable to the Axis present themselves. Japan has no doubt been offered appropriate rewards in return for her agreeing to step in as a makeweight against the United States. In all probability she does not expect to have the undertaking put to the test, although she will expect the reward when the “ new order ” is established. It is safe to assume that much reliance is being placed upon the American policy of isolation, and the aim will probably be to prevent American intervention rather than to provoke it. The American temper is not at the moment in a condition to brook interference or dictation. One result of the pact is almost certain to be an immediate speeding up in the American defensive preparations. Whatever America’s attitude towards the European war may be, here is a plain intimation that other Powers intend to condition- her foreign policy, and a great nation can make only one reply to that—adequate preparation to defend itself. Despite Japanese protests the United States has recently been applying strict embargoes on exports of materials which might be used in war against her. The effect upon Japan has already been serious and might well become disastrous if the nations which have supplied her with the means of becoming a great Power are compelled to stop those supplies completely. Japan cannot close her eyes to the fact that her economic position is extremely vulnerable because she depends upon imports. There remains the factor of the Japanese Navy, which is admittedly strong. Do Germany and Italy hope for assistance from that source? It is difficult to conceive circumstances in which Japan would feel justified in removing any substantial portion of her fleet from the Far East. Action farther afield would expose Japan to risks which could not be ignored. The United States has a powerful fleet stationed in the middle of the Pacific, and the Singapore Base is a serious deterrent. Russia’s Far Eastern fleet cannot be left out of calculations, and the China war has still to be fought and won. However it is viewed, the extension of the Axis alliance does not seem to present the probability of any immediately dangerous developments from Britain’s point of view.